Matthew D. Shapiro
Lawrence R. Klein Collegiate Professor of Economics
Department of Economics
University of Michigan
Ann Arbor MI 48109-1220
tel    734 764-5419
Fax  734 764-2769
shapiro @ umich.edu

Information

Contact InformationBiographical Sketch | Curriculum vitae (PDF) | Photo | Office HoursPapers | Working Papers | Op-Ed | Data
Directions to Economics Department

University of Michigan Economic Indicators from Social Media

Research on Economic Stimulus:  Tax Rebates and Bonus Depreciation

Courses

Econ 402, Intermediate macroeconomics
Econ 495, Seminar in economics (honors)

Econ 612, Advanced macroeconomics

Links

Department of Economics, University of Michigan
My NBER Working Papers are available through the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Survey Research Center
Michigan Census Research Data Center

Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee (FESAC), Statement on Data Sharing, December 14, 2007
American Economic Association | AEA Committee on Statistics
US Monetary Policy Forum

Papers

Harnessing Naturally Occurring Data to Measure the Response of Spending to Income” by Michael Gelman, Shachar Kariv, Matthew D. Shapiro, Dan Silverman, and Steven Tadelis.  Science 345 (11 July 2014) 212-215.
Links to article and supplemental materials: reprint, abstractfull text, and supplemental materials
Link to data at Berkeley Econometrics Lab (EML): data

“Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession:  Is This Time Different?” by Kathryn M.E. Dominguez and Matthew D. Shapiro.  American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 103(3) (2013) 147–152.
PDF file, On-line Appendix, Data files.

“Why Does Trend Growth Affect Equilibrium Employment?  A New Explanation of an Old Puzzle”
by Michael W.L. Elsby and Matthew D. Shapiro, American Economic Review 102(4) (2012) 1378–1413. PDF file, On-line Appendix, Data files.  Previously circulated as "Stepping Off the Wage Escalator: The Effects of Wage Growth on Equilibrium Employment."

Check in the Mail or More in the Paycheck:  Does the Effectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus Depend on How It Is Delivered? by Claudia R. Sahm, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Joel Slemrod. American Economic Journal:  Economic Policy 4 (2012) 216–250.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pol.4.3.216.  PDF file

"Household Response to the 2008 Tax Rebates: Survey Evidence and Aggregate Implications" by Claudia R. Sahm, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Joel Slemrod.  Tax Policy and the Economy 24 (2010) 69-110.  PDF file

"Oil and the Macroeconomy: Lessons for Monetary Policy" by Ethan S. Harris, Bruce C. Kasman, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Kenneth D. West.  US Monetary Policy Forum Conference Paper, February 2009 (Revised November 2009).  PDF file

"Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?" by Matthew D. Shapiro and Joel Slemrod. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 99 (May 2009) 374-379. PDF file

"Risk Preferences in the PSID: Individual Imputations and Family Covariation." by Miles S. Kimball, Claudia R. Sahm, and Matthew D. Shapiro. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 99 (May 2009) 363-368. PDF file  Appendix 
For information about using risk tolerance imputations, see risk preference data page.

"Imputing Risk Tolerance from Survey Responses" by Miles S. Kimball, Claudia Sahm, and Matthew D. Shapiro, Journal of the American Statistical Association 103 (Sept 2008) 1028-1038.  PDF file
For information about using risk tolerance imputations, see risk preference data page.

"Temporary Investment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence from Bonus Depreciation" by Christopher L. House and Matthew D. Shapiro. American Economic Review 98:3 (June 2008) 737-768.   PDF file | Summary from NBER Digest.

"Monetary Policy When Potential Output Is Uncertain: Understanding the Growth Gamble of the 1990s," by Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Matthew D.  Shapiro.  Journal of Monetary Economics 54 (2007) 1132-1162. PDF file

"Why Do Computers Depreciate?"  by Michael J. Geske, Valerie A. Ramey, and Matthew D. Shapiro.  In Hard-to-Measure Goods and Services: Essays in Memory of Zvi Griliches,  Ernst R. Berndt and Charles R. Hulten, Eds.  Chicago:  University of Chicago Press, 2007.   PDF file

"Phased-In Tax Cuts and Economic Activity" by Christopher L. House and Matthew D. Shapiro.   American Economic Review 96 (December 2006) 1835-1949. PDF file

Discussion of  "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates" by Eric Engen and R. Glenn Hubbard,  NBER Macroeconomics Annual 19 (2004) 148-156PDF file

"Did The 2001 Tax Rebate Stimulate Spending? Evidence From Taxpayer Surveys"  by Matthew D. Shapiro and Joel Slemrod.  Tax Policy and the Economy, ed James Poterba.  Cambridge:  MIT Press, 2003.  PDF file

"Consumer Response to Tax Rebates" (Revised version, October 2002) by Matthew D. Shapiro and Joel Slemrod.  American Economic Review 93 (March 2003) 381-396  PDF file 
Executive Summary | Survey Instrument.  Working paper version with regression analysis  Working Paper

"Displaced Capital: A Study of Aerospace Plant Closings" by Valerie Ramey and Matthew Shapiro  Journal of Political Economy 109 (October 2001) 958-992.  PDF file 

"Productivity Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?" by Susanto Basu, John G. Fernald, and Matthew D. Shapiro, Prepared for the Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy, November 2000, Revised June 2001 PDF file  Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 55 (2001) 117-165.

"Labor and the Sustainability of Output and Productivity Growth" (January 2001) by Rebecca M. Blank and Matthew D. Shapiro.  Prepared for the Russell-Sage Foundation/Century Foundation Sustainable Employment Conference.  PDF file

"High-Frequency Substitution and the Measurement of Price Indexes" by Robert Feenstra and Matthew Shapiro.  In Scanner Data and Price Indexes, eds. Robert Feenstra and Matthew Shapiro.  Chicago University of Chicago Press, 2003.   PDF file   

"Measuring the Value of Cataract Surgery," by Irving Shapiro, Matthew Shapiro, and David Wilcox.  In Medical Care Output and Productivity, David M. Cutler and Ernst R. Berndt, eds. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2001.  PDF file

"Quality Improvement in Health Care: A Framework for Price and Output Measurement," by Irving Shapiro, Matthew Shapiro, and David Wilcox,  American Economic Review Proceedings 89 (May 1999) 333-337PDF file

Book

Scanner Data and Price Indexes, eds. Robert Feenstra and Matthew Shapiro.  Chicago University of Chicago Press, 2003.

Working Papers

"Using Social Media to Measure Labor Market Flows." with Dolan Antenucci, Michael Cafarella, and Margaret Levenstein.  April 2013.  Revised March 2014. pdf.  Real-time predictions of Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance.

"Reconsidering the Consequences of Worker Displacements: Survey versus Administrative Measurements."  with Aaron Flaaen and Isaac Sorkin.  October 2013. pdf  appendix

"Portfolio Rebalancing in General Equilibrium."  by Miles S. Kimball, Matthew D. Shapiro, Tyler Shumway, and Jing Zhang.  Unpublished paper, University of Michigan, Revised February 2014.  pdf   

"Using the Survey of Plant Capacity to Measure Capital Utilization."  by Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Matthew D. Shapiro.  U.S. Census Bureau.  Center for Economic Studies Discussion Paper 11-18, July 2011.  pdf

"The Effects of the Financial Crisis on the Well‐Being of Older Americans: Evidence from the Cognitive Economics Study" by Matthew D. Shapiro, September 2010. PDF file

"Labor Supply:  Are Income and Substitution Effects Both :Large or Both Small?"  by Miles S. Kimball and Matthew D. Shapiro, updated June 2010.  PDF file. Appendices.

"The Retirement Elasticity"  by Miles S. Kimball and Matthew D. Shapiro, June 2003.  PDF file  This paper extends the framework of "Labor Supply:  Are Income and Substitution Effects Both :Large or Both Small?" to consider the retirement margin for labor supply and how wealth shocks (e.g., a change in the value of Social Security benefits) affect retirement age.

Lecture

"Survey Methods in Macroeconomics" Lawrence R. Klein Collegiate Professorship Inaugural Lecture, April 17, 2007.

Op-Ed

"Bush Stimulus May Have Only Modest Effect" by Christopher :L. House, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Joel Slemrod, Wall Street Journal Online (Jan. 10, 2008)

"Tax cuts aren't economic cure-alls" by Matthew D. Shapiro and Joel Slemrod, Detroit Free Press (Feb. 12, 2001)

"Economic Stimulant:  Sales Tax" by Matthew D. Shapiro, New York Times (Dec. 16, 1991)