Akamatsu, Kaname. 1961
. "A Theory of Unbalanced Growth in the World Economy," Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv, 86(Heft 2), pp. 196-217. See Flying Geese.Alchian, Armen A. and William R. Allen. 1964
. University Economics, Belmont, CA: Wadsworth. See Alchian-Allen Theorem.Alexander, Sidney. 1952
. "The Effects of Devaluation on a Trade Balance," IMF Staff Papers, (April), pp. 359-373. See absorption approach.
Anderson, James E. and J. Peter Neary. 1996. "A New Approach to Evaluating Trade Policy," Review of Economic Studies 63, (January), pp. 107-125. See Trade Restrictiveness Index.
Anderson, James E. and Eric van Wincoop. 2003. "Gravity with Gravitas: A Solution to the Border Puzzle," American Economic Review 93, (March), pp. 170-192. See multilateral resistance.
Anderson, Kym. 2001. "Globalization, WTO, and ASEAN," ASEAN Economic Bulletin 18:1, (April), pp. 12-23. See Ullyses effect.
Antweiler, Werner and Daniel Trefler. 2002. "Increasing Returns and All That: A View from Trade," American Economic Review 92, (March), pp. 93-119. See intra-mediate trade.
Armington, Paul S. 1969
Arndt, Sven W. 1997. "Globalization and the Open Economy," North American Journal of Economics and Finance 8, pp. 71-79. See intra-product specialization.
Arrow, K.J., H.B. Chenery, B.S. Minhas, and R.M. Solow. 1961. "Capital-Labor Substitution and Economic Efficiency," Review of Economics and Statistics 53, (August), pp. 225-251. See CES function, homohypallagic, and SMAC function.
Backus, David K., Patrick J. Kehoe, and Finn E. Kydland. 1994. "Dynamics of the Trade Balance and the Terms of Trade: The J-Curve?" American Economic Review 84:1, (March), pp. 84-103. See terms of trade.
Bagwell, Kyle and Robert W. Staiger. 1999. "Regionalism and Multilateral Tariff Cooperation," in John Piggott and Alan Woodland, eds., International Trade Policy and the Pacific Rim, New York, NY: St. Martins Press. See tariff complementarity.
Balassa, Bela. 1964. "The Purchasing Power Parity Doctrine: A Reappraisal," Journal of Political Economy 72, pp. 584-596. See Balassa-Samuelson Effect.
Balassa, Bela. 1965
Baldwin, Richard E. 1988
Baldwin, Richard E. 2006
Baldwin, Robert E. 1948
Baldwin, Robert E. 1969. "The Case Against Infant Industry Protection," Journal of Political Economy 77, (May-June), pp. 295-305. See infant industry protection.
Barro, Robert. 1999. "Reagan vs. Clinton: Who's the Economic Champ?"Business Week, February 22, p. 22. See misery index.
Baumol, William J., John C. Panzar, and Robert D. Willig. 1982. Contestable Markets and the Theory of Industry Structure, Academic Press, 1982. See contestable market.
Bentham, Jeremy. 1789. An Introduction to the Principles of Morals and Legislation, London: Hafner, 1948, p. 326. See international.
Bergson, Abram. 1938. "A Reformulation of Certain Aspects of Welfare Economics," Quarterly Journal of Economics 52, (February), pp. 310-334. See Bergsonian social welfare function.
Bergsten, C. Fred. 1975. Toward a New International Economic Order Lexington, MA: Lexington Books. See Bicycle Theory.
Bergsten, C. Fred. 1997. "Open Regionalism," The World Economy 20, (August), pp. 545-565. See open regionalism.
Bergsten, C. Fred. and William R. Cline 1982. Trade Policy in the 1980s Washington, D.C.: Institute for International Economics. See Bicycle Theory.
Bernhofen, Daniel M. and John C. Brown. 2005. "An Empirical Assessment of the Comparative Advantage Gains from Trade: Evidence from Japan," American Economic Review 95, (March), pp. 208-225. See Deardorff-Dixit-Norman Index.
Bhagwati, Jagdish. 1958. "Immiserizing Growth: A Geometrical Note," Review of Economic Studies 25, (June), pp. 201-205. See immizerizing growth.
Bhagwati, Jagdish. 1982. "Directly Unproductive Profit-Seeking (DUP) Activities," Journal of Political Economy 90, (October), pp. 988-1002. See DUP activities.
Bhagwati, Jagdish N. 1984. "Splintering and Disembodiment of Services and Developing Nations," The World Economy 7, (June), pp. 133-143. See splintering.
Bhagwati, Jagdish N. 1984. "Why Are Services Cheaper in Poor Countries?," Economic Journal 94, (June), pp. 279-286. See Kravis-Lipsey-Bhagwati effect.
Bhagwati, Jagdish. 1985. "Protectionism: Old Wine in New Bottles," Journal of Policy Modeling 7, pp. 23-34. See quid pro quo FDI.
Bhagwati, Jagdish. 1987. "Quid Pro Quo DFI and VIEs: Political-Economy-Theoretic Analyses," International Economic Journal 1, pp. 1-14. See VIE.
Bhagwati, Jagdish. 1991. The World Trading System at Risk, Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press. See stumbling block.
Bhagwati, Jagdish. 1993. "Regionalism and Multilateralism: An Overview," in Jaime de Melo and Arvind Panagariya, eds., New Dimensions in Regional Integration, pp. 22-51. See dynamic time path question.
Bhagwati, Jagdish. 1995. "US Trade Policy: The Infatuation with FTAs," Discussion Paper Series No. 726, April; said to be forthcoming in Claude Barfield, ed., The Dangerous Obsession with Free Trade Areas, AEI, 1995, although I do not find record of this being published. See spaghetti bowl.
Bhagwati, Jagdish N. and Vivek H. Dehejia. 1994. "Freer Trade and Wages of the Unskilled -- Is Marx Striking Again?" in Jagdish N. Bhagwati and Marvin Kosters, eds., Trade and Wages: Leveling Wages Down?, Washington D.C.: American Enterprise Institute, pp. 36-75. See Kaleidoscope comparative advantage.
Bhagwati, Jagdish N. and Arvind Panagariya, eds. 1996. The Economics of Preferential Trade Agreements, College Park : Center for International Economics, University of Maryland. See preferential trading arrangement.
Bhagwati, Jagdish N. and V. K. Ramaswami. 1963. "Domestic Distortions, Tariffs and the Theory of Optimum Subsidy," Journal of Political Economy, 71(1), (February), pp. 44-50. See second-best argument for protection.
Bhagwati, Jagdish N., V. K. Ramaswami, and T. N. Srinivasan. 1969. "Domestic Distortions, Tariffs and the Theory of Optimum Subsidy: Some Further Results," Journal of Political Economy, 77(6), (November-December), pp. 1005-1010. See second-best argument for protection.
Bhagwati, Jagdish N. and T.N. Srinivasan. 1980. "Revenue Seeking: A Generalization of the Theory of Tariffs," Journal of Political Economy 88, (December), pp. 1069-1087. See revenue seeking.
Bickerdike, C. F.. 1920. "The Instability of Foreign Exchanges," Economic Journal 30:117, (March), pp. 118-122. See Bickerdike-Robinson-Metzler Condition.
Borkakoti, Jitendralal. 1975. "Some Welfare Implications of the Neo-Technology Hypothesis of the Pattern of International
Trade," Oxford Economic Papers, 27:3 (November), pp. 383-399. See neotechnology model.
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Bown, Chad P. and Meredith A. Crowley. 2007. "Trade Deflection and Trade Depression," Journal of International Economics 72, pp. 176-201. See trade deflection.
Brander, James and Paul Krugman. 1983. "A 'Reciprocal Dumping' Model of International Trade," Journal of International Economics 15, (November), pp. 313-321. See reciprocal dumping.
Brander, James A. and Barbara J. Spencer. 1981. "Tariffs and the Extraction of Foreign Monopoliy Rents under Potential Entry," Canadian Journal of Economics 14, (August), pp. 371-389. See strategic trade policy.
Brander, James A. and Barbara J. Spencer. 1984. "Tariff Protection and Imperfect Competition," in Henryk Kierzkowski, ed., Monopolistic Competition and International Trade, Oxford Univ. Press. See strategic trade policy argument for a tariff.
Brecher, Richard A. and C.F. Diaz-Alejandro. 1977. "Tariffs, Foreign Capital, and Immiserizing Growth," Journal of International Economics 7, pp. 317-322. See Brecher-Alejandro Proposition.
Bruno, Michael. 1963. Interdependence, Resource Use and Structural Change in Israel, Jerusalem: Bank of Israel. See domestic resource cost.
Bruno, Michael. 1963. "Domestic Resource Costs and Effective Protection: Clarification and Synthesis," Journal of Political Economy 80, (Jan.-Feb.), pp. 16-33. See domestic resource cost.
Buiter, Willem and Ebrahim Rahbari. 2012. "Rising Risks of Greek Euro Area Exit," Global Economics View February 6. See grexit.
Cagan, P. 1956. "The Monetary Dynamics of Hyperinflation," in Milton Friedman, ed., Studies in the Quantity Theory of Money Chicago: University of Chicago Press. See hyperinflation.
Calvo, Guillermo A. 1998. "Capital Flows and Capital Market Crises: The Simple Economics of Sudden Stops," Journal of Applied Economics 1, (November), pp. 35-54. See sudden stop.
Calvo, Guillermo A. and Carmen Reinhart. 2002. "Fear of Floating," Quarterly Journal of Economics 117, (May), pp. 379-408. See fear of floating.
Carr, David L., James R. Markusen, and Keith E. Maskus. 2001. "Estimating the Knowledge-Capital Model of the Multinational Enterprise," American Economic Review 91, (June), pp. 693-708. See knowledge capital model.
Cassel, Gustav. 1918. "Abnormal Deviations in International Exchanges," Economic Journal 28, (December), pp. 413-415. See purchasing power parity.
Chipman, John S. 1965. "A Survey of the Theory of International Trade: Part I, The Classical Theory," Econometrica 33, pp. 477-519. See comparative advantage.
Christensen, Laurits R., Dale W. Jorgenson, and Lawrence J. Lau. 1973. "Transcendental Logarithmic Production Frontiers," Review of Economics and Statistics 55, (February) pp. 28-45. See translog function.,
Coase, Ronald. 1960
Corden, W. Max. 1966. "The Structure of a Tariff System and the Effective Protective Rate," Journal of Political Economy 74, (June), pp. 221-237. See effective rate of protection.
Corden, W. Max. 1974
Corden, W. Max. and J. Peter Neary 1982
Cournot, A.. 1897
Creamer, D.. 1943
Deardorff, Alan V. 1979. "One-Way Arbitrage and Its Implications for the Foreign Exchange Market," Journal of Political Economy 87, (April), pp. 351-364. See one-way arbitrage.
Deardorff, Alan V. 1980. "The General Validity of the Law of Comparative Advantage," Journal of Political Economy 88, (October), pp. 941-957. See Deardorff-Dixit-Norman Index.
Deardorff, Alan V. 1982. "The General Validity of the Heckscher-Ohlin Theorem," American Economic Review 72, (September), pp. 683-694. See comvariance.
Deardorff, Alan V. 1994. "The Possibility of Factor Price Equalization, Revisited," Journal of International Economics 36, (February), pp. 167-175. See lens condition.
Dixit, Avinash K and Gene M. Grossman. 1982. "Trade and Protection with Multistage Production," Review of Economic Studies 59, pp. 583-594. See multistage production.
Dixit, Avinash K and Victor Norman. 1980
Dixit, Avinash K. and Joseph E. Stiglitz. 1977. "Monopolistic Competition and Optimum Product Diversity," American Economic Review 67, (June), pp. 297-308. See Dixit-Stiglitz function.
Dornbusch, Rudiger. 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy 84, (December), pp. 1161-86. See exchange rate overshooting.
Dornbusch, Rudiger, Stanley Fischer, and Paul A. Samuelson. 1977. "Comparative Advantage, Trade, and Payments in a Ricardian Model with a Continuum of Goods," American Economic Review 67, (December), pp. 823-839. See DFS Model, continuum-of-goods model.
Dornbusch, Rudiger, Stanley Fischer, and Paul A. Samuelson. 1980. "Heckscher?Ohlin Trade Theory with a Continuum of Goods," Quarterly Journal of Economics 95, (September), pp. 203-224. See DFS Model, continuum-of-goods model.
Dorrance, G.S. 1948. "The Income Terms of Trade," Review of Economic Studies 16(1), pp. 50-56. See income terms of trade.
Dunning, J.H. 1979. "Explaining Changing Patterns of International Production: In Defence of an Eclectic Theory," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics 41. See OLI Paradigm.
Eaton, Jonathan and Samuel Kortum. 2002. "Technology, Geography, and Trade," Econometrica 70, pp. 1741-1779. See Eaton-Kortum Model.
Eaton, Jonathan, Samuel Kortum, Brent Neiman, and John Romalis. 2011. "Trade and the Global Recession," NBER Working Paper #16666 (January). See Head-Ries index.
Edgeworth, Francis. Y. 1881. Mathematical Psychics. See Edgeworth-Bowley Box.
Edgeworth, Francis. Y. 1894. "The Theory of International Values," Economic Journal 4, (March) pp. 35-50. See immiserizing growth.
Eichengreen, Barry and Ricardo Hausmann. 1999. "Exchange Rate and Financial Fragility," NBER Working Paper 7418. See original sin.
Ethier, Wilfred. 1974. "Some of the Theorem of International Trade with Many Goods and Factors," Journal of Economic Perspectives 4, pp. 199-206. See core propositions.
Fama, Eugene F. 1984. "Forward and Spot Exchange Rates," Journal of Monetary Economics 14, pp. 319-338. See Fama regression.
Feenstra, Robert C. 1998. "Integration of Trade and Disintegration of Production in the Global Economy," Journal of Economic Perspectives 12, (Fall), pp. 31-50. See disintegration.
Feenstra, Robert C. and Gordon H. Hanson 2003. "Global Production Sharing and Rising Inequality: A Survey of Trade and Wages," in Kwan Choi and James Harrigan, eds., Handbook of International Trade Basil Blackwell, pp. 146-187. See global production sharing.
Feldstein, Martin and Charles Horioka. 1980. "Domestic Saving and International Capital Flows," Economic Journal 90, (June), pp. 314-329. See Feldstein-Horioka puzzle.
Ferrantino, Michael. 2006. "Quantifying the Trade and Economic Effects of Non-Tariff Measures," OECD Trade Policy Working Paper No. 28, January 20. See handicraft method.
Fetter, Frank Whitson. 1935. "Favorable Balance of Trade," Quarterly Journal of Economics 49(4), (August), pp. 621-645. See balance of trade.
Findlay, Ronald and Harry Grubert. 1959. "Factor Intensities, Technological Progress and the Terms of Trade," Oxford Economic Papers, pp. 111-121. See Lerner Diagram.
Finger, J. Michael and Mordechai E. Kreinin. 1979. "A Measure of 'Export Similarity' and Its Possible Uses," Economic Journal, 89, (December) pp. 905-912. See Finger-Kreinin index .
Fisher, Irving. 1930. The Theory of Interest, New York: Macmillan. See Fisher Effect.
Fleming, J.M. 1962. "Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and under Floating Exchange Rates," IMF Staff Papers 9, pp. 369-379. See Mundell-Fleming Model.
Frankel, Jeffrey. 1997. Regional Trading Blocs in the World Economic System Washington, DC: Institute for International Economics. See trade intensity index, natural trading partner, supernatural trading bloc.
Friedman, Milton. 1953. "The Case for Flexible Exchange Rates," Essays in Positive Economics, Chicago: University of Chicago Press. See stabilizing speculation.
Friedman, Milton. 1969. "The Optimum Quantity of Money," The Optimum Quantity of
Money and Other Essays, Chicago: Aldine Publishing Company. See Friedman rule.
Gabaix, Xavier. 2010. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," working paper, June 28. See granularity.
Grossman, Gene M. and Elhanan Helpman. 1999. "The Internationalization of Economic Activity," National Science Foundation grant, July. See internationalization.
Grossman, Gene M. and Alan Krueger. 1993. "Environmental Impacts of a North American Free Trade Agreement," in Peter M. Garber, ed., The Mexico-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp. 13-56. See Environmental Kuznets Curve.
Grubel, Herbert G. and Peter J. Lloyd. 1975
Grunwald, Joseph and Kenneth Flamm. 1985
Haberler, Gottfried von. 1937. The Theory of International Trade with Its Applications to Commercial Policy, New York: Macmillan. See specific factor.
Hamilton, Clive and Paul Kniest. 1991. "Trade Liberalisation, Structural Adjustment and Intra-Industry Trade: A Note," Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv 127(2), pp. 356-367. See marginal intraindustry trade
.
Harberger, Arnold C. 1950. "Currency Depreciation, Income, and the Balance of Trade," Journal of Political Economy 58, pp. 47-60. See Harberger-Laursen-Metzler Effect.
Hardin, Garrett. 1968. "The Tragedy of the Commons ," Science 162 (December 16), pp. 1243–1248. See Tragedy of the Commons.
Harrod, Roy F. 1933. International Economics London: James Nisbet and Cambridge University Press. See BalassaSamuelsonEffect .
Hausmann, Ricardo, Jason Hwang, and Dani Rodrik. 2007. "What You Export Matters ," Journal of Economic Growth 12 pp. 1-25. See product mix diagram.
Head, Keith and John Ries. (2001). "Increasing Returns versus National Product Differentiation as an Explanation for the Pattern of U.S.-Canada Trade," American Economic Review 91(4), (September), pp. 858-876. See Head-Ries index.
Heckscher, Eli. 1919. "The Effect of Foreign Trade on the Distribution of Income," Ekonomisk Tidskrift, pp. 497-512. See Heckscher-Ohlin Model.
Hicks, John R. 1940. "The Valuation of the Social Income," Economica (May). See Kaldor-Hicks Criterion.
Hufbauer, Gary C. 1966. Synthetic Materials and the Theory of International Trade, Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press. See technology gap model.
Hufbauer, Gary C. 1970. "The Impact of National Characteristics and Technology on Commodity Composition of Trade in Manufactured Goods," in Raymond Vernon, ed., The Technology Factor in International Trade, New York: National Bureau of Economic Research. See neotechnology model.
Hummels, David, Dana Rapoport, and Kei-Mu Yi. 1998. "Vertical Specialization and the Changing Nature of World Trade," FRBNY Economic Policy Review, (June), pp. 79-99. See vertical specialization.
Hummels, David and Alexandre Skiba. 2004. "Shipping the Good Apples Out? An Empirical Confirmation of the Alchian-Allen Conjecture," Journal of Political Economy, (December), pp. 1384-1402. See Alchian-Allen Theorem.
Johnson, Harry G. 1953
Johnson, Harry G. 1954. "Optimum Tariffs and Retaliation," Review of Economic Studies 21, pp. 142-153. See optimal tariff argument, tariffs and retaliation.
Johnson, Harry G. 1955. "Economic Expansion and International Trade," Manchester School 23, pp. 95-112. See immizerizing growth.
Johnson, Robert C. and Guillermo Noguera 2012. "Accounting for Intermediates: Production Sharing and Trade in Value Added," Journal of International Economics 86(2), (March), pp. 224-236. See VAX ratio.
Jones, Ronald W. 1965. "The Structure of Simple General Equilibrium Models," Journal of Political Economy 73, (December), pp. 557-572. See hat algebra, magnification effect.
Jones, Ronald W. 1971. "A Three-Factor Model in Theory, Trade, and History," in Bhagwati, et al., eds., Trade, Balance of Payments, and Growth: Essays in Honor of C. P. Kindleberger, Amsterdam: North-Holland. See Ricardo-Viner Model.
Jones, Ronald W. 1977. "'Two-ness' in Trade Theory: Costs and Benefits," Special Papers in International Economics No. 12, International Finance Section, Princeton University, (April). See two-ness.
Jones, Ronald W. and Henryk Kierzkowski. 1986. "Neighborhood Production Structures, with an Application to the Theory of International Trade," Oxford Economic Papers 38, pp. 59-76. See neighborhood production structure.
Jones, Ronald W. and Henryk Kierzkowski. 1990. "The Role of Services in Production and International Trade: A Theoretical Framework," in Ronald W. Jones and Anne O. Krueger, eds., The Political Economy of International Trade: Essays in Honor of Robert E. Baldwin, Cambridge, MA: Blackwell, pp. 31-48. See fragmentation.
Jones, R.W. and J. Scheinkman. 1977. "The Relevance of the Two-Sector Production Model in Trade Theory," Journal of Political Economy 85, (October), pp. 909-936. See two-ness.
Kaldor, Nicholas. 1939. "Welfare Propositions of Economics and Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility," Economic Journal Vol, (September), pp. . See Kaldor-Hicks Criterion.
Katrak, Homi. 1977. "Multinational Monopolies and Commercial Policy," Oxford Economic Papers 29, (July), pp. 283-291. See strategic trade policy argument for a tariff.
Kemp, Murray C. and Henry Wan, Jr. 1976. "An Elementary Proposition Concerning the Formation of Customs Unions," Journal of International Economics 6, (February), pp. 95-97. See Kemp-Wan Theorem.
Keynes, John Maynard. 1929a. "The German Transfer Problem," The Economic Journal 39, pp. 1-7". See transfer problem.
Keynes, John Maynard. 1929b. "The Reparations Problem: A Discussion. II. A Rejoinder," The Economic Journal 39, pp. 179-182". See transfer problem.
Keynes, John Maynard. 1929c. "Mr. Keynes' Views on the Transfer Problem. III. A Reply," The Economic Journal 39, pp. 404-408". See transfer problem.
Keynes, John Maynard. 1936. The General Theory of Employment, Interest, and Money London: MacMillan. See Keynesian and liquidity trap.
Kindleberger, Charles P. 1973. The World in Depression, Berkeley: Univerisity of California Press. See Kindleberger spiral.
Kondratieff, Nikolai Dmyitriyevich. 1926. "The Long Waves in Economic Life"; translated into English and reprinted in Review of Economics and Statistics 17, November 1935, pp. 105-115. See Kondratieff Cycle.
Kornai, Janos. 1979. "Resource-Constrained versus Demand-Constrained
Systems"Econometrica 47, July, pp. 801-819. See soft budget constraint.
Krasker,William S. 1980. "The 'Peso Problem' in Testing the Efficiency of Forward Exchange Markets," Journal of Monetary Economics 6:2, (April), pp. 269-276. See peso problem.
Kravis, Irving B. 1956. "'Availability' and Other Influences on the Commodity Composition of Trade," Journal of Political Economy 64:2, (April), pp. 143-155. See availability theory.
Kravis, Irving B. 1970. "Trade as a Handmaiden of Growth: Similarities between the Nineteenth and Twentieth Centuries," Economic Journal 80, (December), pp. 850-872. See handmaiden of growth.
Kravis, Irving B. and Robert E. Lipsey. 1983. Toward and Explanation of National Price Levels, Princeton Studies in International Finance 52 (November). See Kravis-Lipsey-Bhagwati effect.
Krueger, Anne O. 1974. "The Political Economy of the Rent Seeking Society," American Economic Review 64, (June), pp. 291-303. See rent seeking.
Krueger, Anne O. 2001. "Free Trade Agreements as Protectionist Devices: Rules of Origin," James R. Melvin, James Moore, and Raymond Riezman, editors, Trade, Theory and Econometrics: Essays in Honor of John S. Chipman, Routledge, London, 2001. See exported protection.
Krugman, Paul R. 1979. "Increasing Returns, Monopolistic Competition, and International Trade," Journal of International Economics 9, (November), pp. 469-479. See New Trade Theory.
Krugman, Paul R. 1979. "A Model of Balance-of-Payments Crises," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 11(3), pp. 311-325. See Canonical Model of Currency Crises.
Krugman, Paul R. 1980. "Scale Economies, Product Differentiation, and the Pattern of Trade," American Economic Review 70, pp. 950-959. See Home market effect.
Krugman, Paul R. 1986. "A 'Technology Gap' Model of International Trade," in K. Jungenfelt and D. Hague, eds., Structural Adjustment in Advanced Economies London: Macmillan; reprinted in Krugman (1990). See technology gap model.
Krugman, Paul R. 1987. "Pricing to Market When the Exchange Rate Changes," in Sven W. Arndt and J. David Richardson, Real-Financial Linkages Among Open Economics Cambridge, MA: MIT Press, pp. 49-70. See pricing to market.
Krugman, Paul R. 1989. "Differences in Income Elasticities and Trends in Real Exchange Rates,"