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Friday, August 13, 2004

All About the Markets

Note the attitudes of Phil Flynn, and those of the reporter, in this report from CBS Marketwatch:
Crude-oil futures prices climbed near $46 a barrel early Friday as traders focused on the outcome of the U.S. battle against Shiite militants in Iraq and the presidential recall vote in Venezuela this weekend.

Radical Shiite cleric, Muqtada al-Sadr Al-Sadr, was injured Friday, and though his wounds were not life-threatening, "oil exports from Iraq were cut in half," according to Phil Flynn, a senior analyst at Alaron Trading.

"If the U.S. and the Iraq government can defeat the terrorists this weekend, which could very well happen, we could see oil prices fall hard on Monday," Flynn warned.

Then again, Sunday's "recall referendum in Venezuela and the uncertainty about the outcome has added to the bullish momentum in crude," he said.

"Polls are too close to call and the fear for the oil market is a close vote that could start a cycle of violence, and violence could hinder oil exports to the U.S.," he said.

On the other hand, a victory by President Hugo Chavez "could also have oil workers going on strike because they are opposed to him and want him out of office," Flynn said.
Al-Sadr is "radical," his supporters are terrorists, Flynn "warns" that oil prices could fall, violence could "hinder oil exports" (um, Phil, it might also kill people), and oil workers want Chavez out of office (actually, it's more oil managers, but it isn't really all of either group).

Basically, as usual, a financial analyst is getting paid for spouting Republican talking points and saying that the market could go either way.