Political Science 485-001: Election Forensics

Fall 2017
Monday, Wednesday 2:30-4 (1518 CCL)
Professor: Walter R. Mebane, Jr.
Office: 7735 Haven Hall; email wmebane@umich.edu
Office hours: Tue 1-3 or other times by appointment.
Course web page: in Canvass; syllabus also at http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/ps485.html

Assignment Due Dates
due date	description	weight
--	short papers	20%
Nov 15	fraud statistics exercise	10%
Nov 22	proposal for final paper	10%
Dec 15, 5pm	final paper (see file fpaper.pdf)	30%
--	participation	10%
Dec 19, 1:30pm-3:30pm	final exam	20%

The course incorporates many features of a seminar. Practically this means two things. First, for each of the first eight course topics (the topics up to fall break) students are responsible for instigating discussion with the assigned reading as a point of departure. The assignments of students to topics will be posted on Canvass. Second, pertaining to two of the first eight topics, every student must submit a paper that raises some analytically interesting point addressed or raised by the course readings. These papers may focus on either required or recommended reading. Additional reading may be drawn in but not substitute for some reference to reading listed on the syllabus. One of the topics must be the topic that student has been assigned as discussion instigator. The other may be freely chosen. These papers are due at the first class meeting encompassed by the topic. Grades for the papers will be counted separately from grades for the quality of discussion instigation. The instigatation grades will be part of ``participation.'' Students assigned to a topic need to coordinate among themselves how they will take responsibility for the various classes encompassed by their topics.

Reading Availability

Much of the course will refer to journal articles and papers posted on the Canvass course site. Other articles are easily found via Google or in http://www.jstor.org.proxy.lib.umich.edu/ or https://www.lib.umich.edu/. I've requested that several books with recommended reading be placed on reserve in the library. In the following listing, required reading is preceded by a bullet. Other items are recommended.

Class meeting and reading schedule

1. introduction (Sep 6)
   • Lehoucq, Fabrice. 2003. ``Electoral Fraud: Causes, Types, and Consequences,'' Annual Review of Political Science 6 (June): 233-256.
     (in file lehoucq.annurev.polisci.6.121901.pdf)

   • Matt Bishop, Sean Peisert, Candice Hoke, Mark Graff and David Jefferson. 2009. ``E-Voting and Forensics: Prying Open the Black Box.'' 2009 Electronic Voting Technology Workshop/Workshop on Trustworthy Elections, Montreal, August 10-11. (in file bishop.pdf)

2. the US in 2000 (Sep 11-13)
   • Mebane. 2004. ``The Wrong Man is President! Overvotes in the 2000 Presidential Election in Florida.'' Perspectives on Politics 2 (September): 525-535.
     http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/mebane.pop2004.pdf

   • Jonathan N. Wand, Kenneth Shotts, Jasjeet S. Sekhon, Walter R. Mebane, Jr., Michael Herron and Henry E. Brady. 2001. ``The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida.'' American Political Science Review 95 (December): 793-810. http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/butterfly.pdf

   • Henry E. Brady, Michael Herron, Walter R. Mebane, Jr., Jasjeet S. Sekhon, Kenneth Shotts and Jonathan Wand. 2001. ``Law and Data: The Butterfly Ballot Episode.'' PS: Political Science and Politics 34: 59-69. (in file brady.etal.ps2001.pdf)

   Hasen, Richard L. 2004. ``A Critical Guide to Bush v. Gore Scholarship,'' Annual Review of Political Science 7: 297-313.
   http://ssrn.com/abstract=491326

   Toobin, Jeffrey. 2001. Too Close to Call. New York: Random House.

   Kirk Wolter, Diana Jergovic, Whitney Moore, Joe Murphy, Colm O'Muircheartaigh. 2003. ``Reliability of the uncertified ballots in the 2000 presidential election in Florida.'' The American Statistician 57 (1): 1-14.

   Walter R. Mebane, Jr., and Jasjeet S. Sekhon. 2004. ``Robust Estimation and Outlier Detection for Overdispersed Multinomial Models of Count Data.'' American Journal of Political Science 48 (April): 392-411.

3. the US in 2004 and 2012 (Sep 18-20)
   • Diane Feldman and Cornell Belcher. 2005. ``DNC Voting Experience Survey.'' Section III of Democracy at Risk: The 2004 Election in Ohio. Democratic National Committee, Voting Rights Institute, June 22, 2005.
     http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/Ohio2004/OhioReportCover2Cover.pdf

   • Diane Feldman and Cornell Belcher. 2005. ``DNC Provisional Ballot Survey.'' Section IV of Democracy at Risk: The 2004 Election in Ohio. Democratic National Committee, Voting Rights Institute, June 22, 2005.
     http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/Ohio2004/OhioReportCover2Cover.pdf

   • Tanner, John. 2005. Letter to Nick A. Soulas, Jr., Assistant Prosecuting Attorney, Franklin County, Ohio. June 29, 2005. (in file franklin_oh.pdf)

   • Mebane. 2005. ``Voting Machine Allocation in Franklin County, Ohio, 2004: Response to U.S. Department of Justice Letter of June 29, 2005.''
     http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/franklin2.pdf

   • William A. Edelstein and Arthur D. Edelstein. 2010. ``Queuing and Elections: Long Lines, DREs and Paper Ballots.'' 2010 Electronic Voting Technology Workshop/Workshop on Trustworthy Elections, Washington, August 9-10. (in file Edelstein.pdf and at
     http://www.usenix.org/event/evtwote10/tech/full_papers/Edelstein.pdf

   • Presidential Commission on Election Administration. 2014. ``The American Voting Experience: Report and Recommendations of the Presidential Commission on Election Administration.'' January 2014. (in file
     Amer-Voting-Exper-final-draft-01-09-14-508.pdf and at
     https://www.eac.gov/election-officials/pcea/). Sections II and III.B.2 (pp. 9-21 and 36-44).

   • Charles Stewart III and Stephen Ansolabehere. ``Waiting in Line to Vote.'' 2013. In ``Appendix N, Long Lines and Wait Times'' of Presidential Commission on Election Administration. 2014. ``The American Voting Experience: Report and Recommendations of the Presidential Commission on Election Administration.'' January 2014. (in file
     Waiting-in-Line-to-Vote-White-Paper-Stewart-Ansolabehere.pdf and at
     https://www.eac.gov/documents/2017/02/24/waiting-in-line-to-vote-white-paper-stewart-ansolabehere/).

   • Michael C. Herron and Daniel A. Smith. 2016. ``Precinct Resources and Voter Wait Times,'' Electoral Studies 42: 249-263. (in file herron.smith2016.pdf)

   Presidential Commission on Election Administration. 2014. ``VTP Toolkit.'' (at http://web.mit.edu/vtp/).

   Presidential Commission on Election Administration. 2014. ``The American Voting Experience: Report and Recommendations of the Presidential Commission on Election Administration. Materials and Research Submissions'' (at https://www.eac.gov/election-officials/pcea/materials-research/).

   Jeh Johnson. 2017. ``Statement by Secretary Jeh Johnson on the Designation of Election Infrastructure as a Critical Infrastructure Subsector''(at https://www.dhs.gov/news/2017/01/06/statement-secretary-johnson-designation-election-infrastructure-critical).

   U.S. Election Assistance Commission. 2017. ``U.S. Election Systems as Critical Infrastructure'' (at https://www.eac.gov/assets/1/6/starting_point_us_election_systems_as_Critical_Infrastructure.pdf).

   U.S. Election Assistance Commission. 2017. ``ELECTIONS - CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE'' (at https://www.eac.gov/election-officials/elections-critical-infrastructure/).

   Mark Lindeman. 2006. ``Beyond Exit Poll Fundamentalism: Surveying the 2004 Election Debate.'' Paper prepared for presentation at the 61st Annual Conference of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, Montreal, Canada, May 18-21, 2006. (at http://marklindeman.org/beyond-epf.pdf)

   Edison Media Research and Mitofsky International. 2005. ``Evaluation of Edison/Mitofsky Election System 2004.'' (in file EvaluationJan192005.pdf)

   House Judiciary Committee Democratic Staff. 2005. Preserving Democracy: What Went Wrong in Ohio. (in file final_status_report.pdf).

   Mebane. 2005. ``Inferences from the DNC Provisional Ballot Voter Survey.'' Section V of Democracy at Risk: The 2004 Election in Ohio. Democratic National Committee, Voting Rights Institute, June 22, 2005.

   Walter R. Mebane, Jr., and Michael C. Herron. 2005. ``Ohio 2004 Election: Turnout, Residual Votes and Votes in Precincts and Wards'' and ``Ohio 2004 Election: New Registrants, Provisional Ballots, Voting Machines, Turnout and Polls Open Elapsed Times in Franklin County Precincts.'' Section VI of Democracy at Risk: The 2004 Election in Ohio. Democratic National Committee, Voting Rights Institute, June 22, 2005.
   http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/Ohio2004/OhioReportCover2Cover.pdf

   Bob Fitrakis, Steve Rosenfeld and Harvey Wasserman. 2006. What Happened in Ohio: A Documentary Record of Theft and Fraud in the 2004 Election.

   Mark Crispin Miller. 2008. Loser Take All: Election Fraud and The Subversion of Democracy, 2000 - 2008.

4. Sarasota 2006: electronic voting machines (Sep 25)
   • Arlene Ash and John Lamperti. 2008. ``Florida 2006: Can Statistics Tell Us Who Won Congressional District-13?'' (with discussion by Hall and Mebane). Chance 21 (2): 18-27. (in file ash.lamperti.chance2008.pdf).

   • Lawrence Norden, David Kimball, Whitney Quesenbery, and Margaret Chen. 2008. Better Ballots. Brennan Center for Justice.
     https://www.brennancenter.org/publication/better-ballots

   • Frisina, Laurin, Michael C. Herron, James Honaker and Jeffrey B. Lewis. 2008. ``Ballot Formats, Touchscreens, and Undervotes: A Study of the 2006 Midterm Elections in Florida.'' Election Law Journal 7(1):25-47. (in file frisina.etal.elj2008.pdf).

   • Mebane. 2008. ``Machine Errors and Undervotes in Florida 2006 Revisited.'' William & Mary Bill of Rights Journal, 17 (December): 375-396.
     http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/howpaper2.pdf

   Adam Aviv, Pavol Cerný, Sandy Clark, Eric Cronin, Gaurav Shah, Micah Sherr and Matt Blaze. 2008. ``Security Evaluation of ES&S Voting Machines and Election Management System.'' 2008 USENIX/ACCURATE Electronic Voting Technology Workshop, San Jose, July 28-29. (in file aviv.pdf and at
   http://www.usenix.org/event/evt08/tech/full_papers/aviv/aviv.pdf

   Niemi, Richard G., and Paul S. Herrnson. 2003. ``Beyond the Butterfly: The Complexity of U.S. Ballots.'' Perspectives on Politics, 1 (2 Jun.): 317-326.

   R. Michael Alvarez and Thad E. Hall. 2008. Electronic Elections: The Perils and Promises of Digital Democracy.

   Marcia Lausen. 2007. Design for Democracy: Ballot and Election Design.

   Mebane, Walter R., Jr., and David L. Dill. 2007. ``Factors Associated with the Excessive CD-13 Undervote in the 2006 General Election in Sarasota County, Florida.'' MS.
   http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/smachines1.pdf

   GAO. 2007. ``ELECTIONS: Further Testing Could Provide Increased but Not Absolute Assurance That Voting Systems Did Not Cause Undervotes in Florida's 13th Congressional District,'' Statement before the Task Force on Florida-13, Committee on House Administration, House of Representatives. (in file d0897t.pdf).

   Yasinsac, Alec, David Wagner, Matt Bishop, Ted Baker, Breno de Medeiros, Gary Tyson, Michael Shamos and Mike Burmester. 2007. ``Software Review and Security Analysis of the ES&S iVotronic 8.0.1.2 Voting Machine Firmware.'' Report. Security and Assurance in Information Technology Laboratory, Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida, February 23, 2007. (in file FinalAudRepSAIT.pdf)

   GAO. 2008. ``ELECTIONS: Results of GAO's Testing of Voting Systems Used in Sarasota County in Florida's 13th Congressional District,'' Statement before the Task Force on Florida-13, Committee on House Administration, House of Representatives. (in file d08425t.pdf).

   D. A. Buell, E. Hare, F. Heindel, C. Moore and B. Zia. ``Auditing a DRE-Based Election in South Carolina.'' 2011 Electronic Voting Technology Workshop/Workshop on Trustworthy Elections, San Francisco, August 8-9. (in file Buell.pdf and at
   http://www.usenix.org/event/evtwote11/tech/final_files/Buell.pdf

5. post-election audits (Sep 27)
   • Philip B. Stark and David A. Wagner. 2012. ``Evidence-Based Elections.'' IEEE Security and Privacy 10, 33-41. (in file evidenceVote12.pdf and at
     http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/ stark/Preprints/evidenceVote12.pdf

   • Mark Lindeman and Philip B. Stark. 2012. ``A Gentle Introduction to Risk-Limiting Audits.'' IEEE Security and Privacy 10, 42-49. (in file gentle12.pdf and at
     http://www.stat.berkeley.edu/ stark/Preprints/gentle12.pdf

   • Ronald L. Rivest. 2017. ``Bayesian Post-Election Tabulation Audits Explained and Extended,'' working paper draft. (in file bayesx.pdf)

   • Joseph Lorenzo Hall, Philip B. Stark, Luke W. Miratrix, Melvin Briones, Elaine Ginnold, Freddie Oakley, Martin Peaden, Gail Pellerin, Tom Stanionis and Tricia Webber. 2009. ``Implementing Risk-Limiting Post-Election Audits in California.'' 2009 Electronic Voting Technology Workshop/Workshop on Trustworthy Elections, Montreal, August 10-11. (in file hall.pdf and at
     http://www.usenix.org/event/evtwote09/tech/full_papers/hall.pdf

   Jennie Bretschneider, Sean Flaherty, Susannah Goodman, Mark Halvorson, Roger Johnston, Mark Lindeman, Ronald L. Rivest, Pam Smith and Philip B. Stark. 2012. ``Risk-Limiting Post-Election Audits: Why and How'' working paper draft. (in file RLAWG12.pdf and at
   http://people.csail.mit.edu/rivest/pubs.html#RLAWG12

   Mark Lindeman, Philip B. Stark and Vincent S. Yates. 2012. ``BRAVO: Ballot-polling Risk-Limiting Audits to Verify Outcomes.'' 2012 Electronic Voting Technology Workshop/Workshop on Trustworthy Elections. (in file evtwote12-final27.pdf and at
   https://www.usenix.org/system/files/conference/evtwote12/evtwote12-final27.pdf

   Philip B. Stark. 2010. ``Super-Simple Simultaneous Single-Ballot Risk-Limiting Audits.'' 2010 Electronic Voting Technology Workshop/Workshop on Trustworthy Elections, Washington, August 9-10. (in file Stark.pdf and at
   http://www.usenix.org/event/evtwote10/tech/full_papers/Stark.pdf

   U.S. Election Assistance Commission. 2017. ``POST ELECTION: AUDITS & RECOUNTS'' (at https://www.eac.gov/election-officials/post-election-audits-recounts/).

6. voting technology (Oct 2)
   • Ariel J. Feldman, J. Alex Halderman and Edward W. Felten. 2007. ``Security Analysis of the Diebold AccuVote-TS Voting Machine.'' 2007 USENIX/ACCURATE Electronic Voting Technology Workshop, Boston, August 6. (in file feldman.pdf and at
     http://www.usenix.org/event/evt07/tech/full_papers/feldman/feldman.pdf). For videos see the ts-voting video in the `Media Gallery' folder of the Canvass site or the several videos at https://umich.box.com/ts-video

   • J. Alex Halderman, Eric Rescorla, Hovav Shacham and David Wagner. 2008. ``You Go to Elections with the Voting System You Have: Stop-Gap Mitigations for Deployed Voting Systems.'' 2008 USENIX/ACCURATE Electronic Voting Technology Workshop, San Jose, July 28-29. (in file halderman.pdf and at
     http://www.usenix.org/event/evt08/tech/full_papers/halderman/halderman.pdf

   • Brennan Center Task Force on Voting System Security. 2006. The Machinery of Democracy: Protecting Elections in an Electronic World.
     http://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/legacy/d/download_file_36343.pdf

   Wired. 2016. ``Zachary Quinto Explains How to Hack an Election.'' https://www.wired.com/video/zachary-quinto-explains-how-to-hack-an-election. September 14, 2016.

   Patriot NOT Partisan. 2017. ``My Conversation With a Leading Election Technology Researcher Should Terrify You.''
   http://patriotnotpartisan.com/elections/my-conversation-with-a-leading-election-technology-researcher-should-terrify-you/

   Eric L. Lazarus, David L. Dill, Jeremy Epstein and Joseph Lorenzo Hall. 2011. ``Applying a Reusable Election Threat Model at the County Level.'' 2011 Electronic Voting Technology Workshop/Workshop on Trustworthy Elections, San Francisco, August 8-9. (in file Lazarus.pdf and at
   http://www.usenix.org/event/evtwote11/tech/final_files/Lazarus.pdf

   EVEREST team. 2007. ``EVEREST: Evaluation and Validation of Election-Related Equipment, Standards and Testing: Final Report.'' (in file everest.pdf and at
   http://www.patrickmcdaniel.org/pubs/everest.pdf

   Ohio Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner. 2007. ``Project E V E R E S T: Evaluation and Validation of Election Related Equipment, Standards and Testing: Report of Findings.'' (in file Everest.pdf and at
   https://votingmachines.procon.org/sourcefiles/Everest.pdf

   Alex Padilla, California Secretary of State. 2007. ``Top-to-Bottom Review.''
   http://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/voting-systems/oversight/top-bottom-review/

   Presidential Commission on Election Administration. 2014. ``The American Voting Experience: Report and Recommendations of the Presidential Commission on Election Administration. Appendix V. Voting Technology.''
   https://web.archive.org/web/20160512023240/https://www.supportthevoter.gov/appendix-v/

   Presidential Commission on Election Administration. 2014. ``Materials & Research.'' See papers under heading ``Voting Technology'' at
   https://www.eac.gov/election-officials/pcea/materials-research/

   Douglas W. Jones and Barbara Simons. 2012. Broken Ballots: Will Your Vote Count? Chicago: University of Chicago Press.

   Paul S. Herrnson, Richard G. Niemi, Michael J. Hanmer, Benjamin B. Bederson, Frederick G. Conrad and Michael W. Traugott. 2008. Voting Technology: The Not-So-Simple Act of Casting a Ballot. Washington: Brookings.

   The Brennan Center for Justice Voting Technology Assessment Project. 2006. The Machinery of Democracy: Voting System Security, Accessibility, Usability, and Cost.
   https://www.brennancenter.org/sites/default/files/publications/Machinery_Democracy.pdf

   Saltman, Roy G. 1988. ``Accuracy, Integrity, and Security in Computerized Vote-Tallying.'' NBS Special Publication 500-158.
   http://nvlpubs.nist.gov/nistpubs/Legacy/SP/nbsspecialpublication500-158.pdf

   Michael C. Herron, Walter R. Mebane, Jr., and Jonathan N. Wand. 2008 ``Voting Technology and the 2008 New Hampshire Primary.'' William & Mary Bill of Rights Journal, 17 (December): 351-374.
   http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/NH2008HMW.pdf

7. the US in 2016 (Oct 4)
   • Office of the Director of National Intelligence. 2017. ``Intelligence Community Assessment: Assessing Russian Activities and Intentions in Recent US Elections.'' ICA 2017-01D, 6 January 2017. (in file ICA_2017_01.pdf and at
     https://www.dni.gov/files/documents/ICA_2017_01.pdf

   • Walter R. Mebane, Jr., and Matthew Bernhard. 2017. ``Effects of Voting Technologies and Recount Methods on Votes in Wisconsin and Michigan.'' Working paper.
     http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/recount2016.pdf

   U.S. Department of Homeland Security. 2017. ``Statement by Secretary Jeh Johnson on the Designation of Election Infrastructure as a Critical Infrastructure Subsector,'' Press Release, January 6, 2017. (in file STATEMENT FROM SECRETARY JOHNSON RE ELECTION INFRASTRUCTURE - FINAL.docx)

   U.S. Election Assistance Commission. 2017. ``Starting Point: U.S. Election Systems as Critical Infrastructure.'' (in file starting_point_us_election_systems_as_Critical_Infrastructure.pdf) and at
   https://www.eac.gov/assets/1/6/starting_point_us_election_systems_as_Critical_Infrastructure.pdf

   Latanya Sweeney, Ji Su Yoo and Jinyan Zang. ``Voter Identity Theft: Submitting Changes to Voter Registrations Online to Disrupt Elections.'' Technology Science 2017090601. September 6, 2017. (in file sweeney.yoo.zang.techscience2017.pdf at at
   https://techscience.org/a/2017090601/download.pdf

   Walter R. Mebane, Jr., Alejandro Pineda, Patrick Wu, Logan Woods, Joseph Klaver and Blake Miller. 2017. ``Using Twitter to Observe Election Incidents in the United States.'' Prepared for presentation at the 2017 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA, August 31-September 3, 2017.
   http://www-personal.umich.edu/~wmebane/apsa17.pdf

8. strategic voting (Oct 9-11)
   • Riker, William H. 1982. ``The Two-Party System and Duverger's Law: An Essay on the History of Political Science.'' American Political Science Review, 76 (Dec.): 753-766.

   • Gary W. Cox. 1994. Strategic Voting Equilibria Under the Single Nontransferable Vote. American Political Science Review 88 (Sep): 608-621.

   • Alesina, Alberto, and Howard Rosenthal. 1995. Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy. New York: Cambridge UP. Chapter 3.

   • Craven, John. 1992. Social Choice: A Framework for Collective Decisions and Individual Judgements. Cambridge UP. Chapters 2 and 3 and pages 67-74 (sections 5.1-5.2).

   • Riker, William H. 1982. Liberalism Against Populism: A Confrontation Between the Theory of Democracy and the Theory of Social Choice. Prospect Heights, IL: Waveland. Chapter 5 and sections 6A, 6B, 6F.

   Alesina, Alberto, and Howard Rosenthal. 1995. Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy. New York: Cambridge UP.

   Alberto Alesina, John Londregan and Howard Rosenthal. 1993. A Model of the Political Economy of the United States American Political Science Review 87 (Mar): 12-33.

   Cox, Gary. 1996. Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World's Electoral System. Cambridge.

   Riker, William H. 1986. The Art of Political Manipulation. Yale UP.

   Riker, William H. 1982. Liberalism Against Populism: A Confrontation Between the Theory of Democracy and the Theory of Social Choice. Prospect Heights, IL: Waveland.

   Saari, Donald. 2001. Decisions and elections : explaining the unexpected. Cambridge.

   Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2000. ``Coordination, Moderation, and Institutional Balancing in American Presidential and House Elections.'' American Political Science Review 94 (March): 37-57. MS version available at
   http://www.umich.edu/~mebane/covote.pdf

   Mebane, Walter R., Jr., and Jasjeet S. Sekhon. 2002. ``Coordination and Policy Moderation at Midterm.'' American Political Science Review 96 (March): 141-157. MS version available at http://www.umich.edu/~mebane/midterm.pdf

9. Election Forensics Toolkit (Oct 18-23)
   • Allen Hicken and Walter R. Mebane, Jr. 2015. ``A Guide to Election Forensics.'' Working paper. http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/USAID15/guide.pdf

   • Walter R. Mebane, Jr. 2015. ``Election Forensics Toolkit DRG Center Working Paper.'' http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/USAID15/report.pdf

   • Walter R. Mebane, Jr., and Kirill Kalinin 2015. ``Election Forensics Toolkit.'' http://electionforensics.ddns.net:3838/test/

10. testing for and measuring ``frauds'' (Oct 25-Nov 6)
    • Klimek, Peter, Yuri Yegorov, Rudolf Hanel, and Stefan Thurner. 2012. Statistical detection of systematic election irregularities. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 109 (41): 16469-16473. http://www.pnas.org/content/109/41/16469.full (in file PNAS-2012-Klimek-16469-73.pdf)

    • Walter R. Mebane, Jr. 2016. ``Election Forensics: Frauds Tests and Estimates Based on a Model for Multimodalities.'' (in file mw16r.pdf).

    • Walter R. Mebane, Jr., and Jonathan Wall. 2015. ``Election Frauds, Postelection Legal Challenges and Geography in Mexico.'' Presented at the 2015 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, San Francisco, CA, September 3-6, 2015. http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/apsa15.pdf

    • Arturas Rozenas. 2017. ``Detecting Election Fraud from Irregularities in Vote-Share Distributions.'' Political Analysis 25 (1): 41-56. (in file fraud_detectionPA2017.pdf)

    • Rundlett, Ashlea and Milan W. Svolik. 2016. ``Deliver the Vote! Micromotives and Macrobehavior in Electoral Fraud.'' American Political Science Review 110 (1): 180-197. (in file rundlett.svolic.apsr2016.pdf)

    Ferrari, Diogo and Walter R. Mebane, Jr. 2017. ``Developments in Positive Empirical Models of Election Frauds.'' Paper presented at the 2017 Summer Meeting of the Political Methodology Society, Madison, WI, July 13-15, 2017. http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/pm17.pdf (in file pm17.pdf)

    Walter R. Mebane, Jr. 2015. ``Election Forensics: Latent Dimensions of Election Frauds and Strategic Voting.'' Presented at the 2015 summer meeting of the Society for Political Methodology, Rochester, July 23-25. http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/pm15.pdf

    Walter R. Mebane, Jr., and Joe Klaver. 2015. ``Election Forensics: Strategies versus Election Frauds in Germany.'' Presented at the 2015 Annual Conference of the European Political Science Association, Vienna, Austria, June 25-27. http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/epsa15.pdf

    Kirill Kalinin and Walter R. Mebane, Jr. 2017. ``Worst Election Ever in Russia?'' Presented at the 2017 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 6-9.
    (in file mw17C.pdf)

    Kirill Kalinin. 2017. ``The Essays on Election Fraud in Authoritarian Regimes,'' Ph.D. dissertation.
    (in file dissc_final_Walter.pdf)

11. second-digit tests (Nov 8-15)
    • Pericchi, Luis Raúl and David Torres. 2011. ``Quick Anomaly Detection by the Newcomb-Benford Law, with Applications to Electoral Processes Data from the USA, Puerto Rico and Venezuela.'' Statistical Science 26 (Nov, 4): 502-516. (in file STS0703-006R4A0.pdf).

    • Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2014. ``Can Votes Counts' Digits and Benford's Law Diagnose Elections?'' In Steven J. Miller, The Theory and Applications of Benford's Law, Princeton UP, 206-216. (in file miller13.pdf).

    • Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2013. Election Forensics, chapters 9, 10 and 12. (in files Chapter9.pdf, Chapter10.pdf and Chapter12.pdf).

    • Mebane. 2007. ``Election Forensics: Statistics, Recounts and Fraud,'' Presented at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 12-16.
      http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/mw07.pdf

    Wendy K. Tam Cho and Brian J. Gaines. 2007. ``Breaking the (Benford) Law: Statistical Fraud Detection in Campaign Finance.'' The American Statistician, 61 (August): 218-223.

    Mebane. 2008. ``Election Forensics: The Second-digit Benford's Law Test and Recent American Presidential Elections.'' In R. Michael Alvarez, Thad E. Hall and Susan D. Hyde, eds., Election Fraud: Detecting and Deterring Electoral Manipulation. Washington, DC: Brookings Press, 2008, pp. 162-181.
    http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/fraud06.pdf

    Mebane. 2006. ``Election Forensics: Vote Counts and Benford's Law,'' Presented at at the 2006 Summer Meeting of the Political Methodology Society, UC-Davis, July 20-22.
    http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/pm06.pdf

    Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2007. ``Evaluating Voting Systems To Improve and Verify Accuracy.'' Prepared for presentation at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, San Francisco, CA, February 16, 2007, and at the Bay Area Methods Meeting, Berkeley, March 1, 2007.
    http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/bamm07.pdf

    European Union. 2001. ``Preliminary Statement--2 October 2001.'' European Union-Election Observation Mission in Bangladesh 2001.
    http://www.lcgbangladesh.org/election01/docs/eu2oct01.pdf

    Mebane. 2007. ``Election Forensics: Statistical Interventions in Election Controversies,'' Presented at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, Aug 30-Sept 2.
    http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/apsa07.pdf

12. FRAUD STATISTICS EXERCISE DUE: Nov 15

13. digit tests and ``election'' manipulation in Iran and Russia (Nov 20-22)
    • Mebane. 2010. ``Fraud in the 2009 Presidential Election in Iran?'' Chance 23 (Mar.): 6-15. (in file CHANCE 23.1 - Mebane.pdf).

    • Beber, Bernd and Alexandra Scacco. 2012. What the Numbers Say: A Digit-Based Test for Election Fraud Political Analysis 20 (2): 211-234.
      (in file Political Analysis-2012-Beber-211-34.pdf)

    • Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2013. Election Forensics, chapters 16. (in files Chapter16.pdf).

    Kirill Kalinin. 2017. ``The Essays on Election Fraud in Authoritarian Regimes: III. Theory of Loyalty: Signaling Games of Election Frauds,'' Ph.D. dissertation.
    (in file dissc_final_Walter.pdf)

    Walter R. Mebane, Jr., and Kirill Kalinin. 2009. ``Comparative Election Fraud Detection.'' Prepared for presentation at the Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 2-5, 2009.
    http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/apsa09.pdf

    Francisco Cantu and Sebastian M. Saleigh. 2011. ``Fraudulent Democracy? An Analysis of Argentina's Infamous Decade using Supervised Machine Learning.'' Political Analysis 19 (4): 409-433. (in file Political Analysis-2011-Cantú-409-33.pdf)

14. other statistical methods to try to detect election fraud (Nov 27-29)
    • Hyde, Susan D. 2007. ``The Observer Effect in International Politics: Evidence from a Natural Experiment.'' World Politics 60 (Oct.): 37-63. (in file hyde.wp2007.pdf)

    • Enikolopov, Ruben, Vasily Korovkin, Maria Petrova, Konstantin Sonin and Alexei Zakharov. 2013. ``Field experiment estimate of electoral fraud in Russian parliamentary elections.'' Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110 (2): 448-452.
      http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2012/12/19/1206770110.full.pdf or
      http://www.pnas.org/content/110/2/448.full
      (in file PNAS-2013-Enikolopov-448-52.pdf).

    • Hidalgo, F. Daniel. 2010. ``Digital Democracy: The Consequences of Electronic Voting Technology in Brazil.'' Working paper. (in file hidalgo.pdf)

    • Inès Levin, Gabe A. Cohn, Peter C. Ordeshook, and R. Michael Alvarez. 2009. ``Detecting Voter Fraud in an Electronic Voting Context: An Analysis of the Unlimited Reelection Vote in Venezuela.'' 2009 Electronic Voting Technology Workshop/Workshop on Trustworthy Elections, Montreal, August 10-11. (in file levin.pdf and at
      http://www.usenix.org/event/evtwote09/tech/full_papers/levin.pdf

    Peter Ordeshook, Mikhail Myagkov and Dmitry Shakin. 2009. The Forensics of Election Fraud.

    Susan D. Hyde and Nikolay Marinov. 2012. ``Which Elections Can Be Lost?'' Political Analysis 20 (2): 191-210. (in file Political Analysis-2012-Hyde-191-210.pdf)

    Susan D. Hyde. 2011. The Pseudo-Democrat's Dilemma: Why Election Observation Became an International Norm. Ithaca, NY: Cornell UP.

    Bjornlund, Eric C. 2004. Beyond Free and Fair: Monitoring Elections and Building Democracy. Washington, DC: Woodrow Wilson Center Press.

    Judith G. Kelley. 2012. Monitoring Democracy: When International Election Observation Works, and Why It Oftern Fails. Princeton UP.

    election monitoring organizations (examples).
    http://www.umich.edu/~wmebane/ps485/monitoring.html

    Pippa Norris. 2014. Why Electoral Integrity Matters. Cambridge.

    Ali Ansari, Daniel Berman and Thomas Rintoul. 2009. Preliminary Analysis of the Voting Figures in Iran's 2009 Presidential Election. Chatham House, London. June 21, 2009. (in file 14234_iranelection0609.pdf)

    Reza Esfandiari and Yousef Bozorgmehr. 2009. ``A Rejoinder to the Chatham House report on Iran's 2009 presidential election offering a new analysis on the results.'' (in file Iranian election.pdf)

15. more second-digit tests (Dec 4-11)
    • Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2013. Election Forensics, chapters 11-15. (in files Chapter11.pdf, Chapter12.pdf, Chapter13.pdf and Chapter1415.pdf).

    • Herrmann, Michael and Franz Urban Pappi. 2008. Stategic Voting in German Constituencies. Electoral Studies 27 (June 2): 228-244. (in file herrmann.pappi.es2008.pdf)

    • Shikano, Susumu, Michael Herrmann and Paul W. Thurner. 2009. Strategic Voting under Proportional Representation: Threshold Insurance in German Elections. West European Politics 32 (May 3): 634-656. (in file shikano.herrmann.thurner.wep2009.pdf)

    • Blais, Andre, Richard Nadeau, Elisabeth Gidengil and Neil Nevitte. 2001. Measuring Strategic Voting in Multiparty Plurality Elections. Electoral Studies 20 (May 3): 343-352. (in file blais.nadeau.gidengil.nevitte.es2001.pdf)

    • Joseph L. Klesner. 2007. The July 2006 Presidential and Congressional Elections in Mexico. Electoral Studies 26 (Dec 4): 803-808. (in file klesner.es2007.pdf)

    • McCann, James A. and Jorge I. Domínguez. 1998. Mexicans React to Electoral Fraud and Political Corruption: an Assessment of Public Opinion and Voting Behavior. Electoral Studies 17 (Dec 4): 483-503. (in file mccann.dominguez.es1998.pdf)

    European Union Election Observation Mission. ``Mexico Final Report, Presidential and Parliamentary Elections, 2 July 2006.'' November 23, 2006.
    (in file 2006_24_11_final_report_mexico.pdf)

    Francisco Cantú. 2015. ``Groceries for Votes? The Electoral Returns of Vote-buying in Mexico.'' Working paper (in file VoteBuyingV3.pdf)