Government 317: Campaigns and Elections

Fall 2006
Tuesday and Thursday 2:55-4:10 (GS KAU)
Professor: Walter R. Mebane, Jr.
Office: 217 White Hall (255-3868); email
Office hours: T 4:30-5:30, W 2-4 or other times by appointment.
Course web page:

Assignment Due Dates
due date description weight
October 5 first paper 30%
November 14 proposal for final paper 5%
December 8 final paper 30%
December 12 (7-9:30pm) final exam 35%

Reading Availability

Large portions of the following books are required reading, so you may wish to buy them. All should also (soon) be on reserve at Uris library.

Abramson, Paul R., John H. Aldrich, David W. Rohde. 2005. Change and Continuity in the 2004 Elections. Washington DC: Congressional Quarterly.

Alesina, Alberto, and Howard Rosenthal. 1995. Partisan Politics, Divided Government, and the Economy. New York: Cambridge UP.

Malbin, Michael J., ed. 2005. The Election after Reform. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.

Fiorina, Morris P., with Samuel J. Abrams and Jeremy C. Pope 2006. Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized America, 2d ed. New York: Pearson Longman.

Gumbel, Andrew. 2005. Steal This Vote. Nation Books.

Herrnson, Paul S. 2004. Congressional Elections: Campaigning at Home and in Washington. 4th ed. Washington DC: Congressional Quarterly.

Hinich, Melvin J., and Michael C. Munger. 1997. Analytical Politics. New York: Cambridge UP.

Toobin, Jeffrey. 2001. Too Close to Call. New York: Random House.

Class meeting and reading schedule

Items with a bullet ($\bullet$) are required. Others are supplementary.

  1. Money, Interests, Parties (Aug 24-Sep 12)

    U.S. Government Web Sites.

    Miscellaneous House Information. or or

    Information Sources for Legislative Reseach.

    Seach Rollcall Votes.

    Federal Election Commission.

    Consolidated Federal Funds Report.

    Federal Procurement Data System.

    Federal Assistance Award Data System.

    Federal Funds Express.

    U.S. Census Bureau.

    Electoral College including Historical Presidential Election Results.

    Official House Election Statistics.

    Politics Navigator.

    Money in State Politics.

    Campaign Finance Institute.

    The Center for Voting and Democracy.

    Democracy Matters.

    Stanford Law School, Robert Crown Law Library. ``Campaign Finance Materials.''

    Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

    National Republican Congressional Committee.

    Bauer, Robert E. 2004. More Soft Money Hard Law. 2d ed. Washington, DC: Perkins Cole.

    Bauer, Robert E. 2006. ``More Soft Money Hard Law Web Updates''

    Biersack, Robert, Paul S. Herrnson and Clyde Wilcox, eds. 1999. After the Revolution: PACs, Lobbies, and the Republican Congress. Boston: Allyn and Bacon.

    Biersack, Robert, Paul S. Herrnson and Clyde Wilcox, eds. 1994. Risky Business: PAC Decisionmaking in Congressional Elections. Armonk, NY: M.E. Sharpe.

    Brookings Institution. Campaign Finance Reform.

    Corrado, Anthony, Thomas Mann, Daniel Ortiz and Trevor Potter. 2005. The New Campaign Finance Sourcebook. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.

    Corrado, Anthony, Thomas E. Mann and Trevor Potter, eds. 2003. Inside the Campaign Finance Battle. Washington, DC: Brookings.

    Groseclose, Tim, and James M. Snyder, Jr. 1996. ``Buying Supermajorities.'' American Political Science Review 90:303-315.

    Grossman, Gene M., and Elhanan Helpman. 1996. ``Electoral Competition and Special Interest Politics.'' Review of Economic Studies 63 (Apr.): 265-286.

    Grossman, Gene M., and Elhanan Helpman. 2001. Special Interest Politics. Cambridge: MIT.

    Magleby, David B. 2002. Financing the 2000 Election. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.

    Magleby, David B., ed. 2000. Outside Money: Soft Money and Issue Advocacy in the 1998 Congressional Elections. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield.

    Magleby, David B., and J. Quinn Monson, eds. 2004. The Last Hurrah: Soft Money and Issue Advocacy in the 2002 Congressional Elections. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution Press.

    Malbin, Michael J. 2003. Life After Reform: When the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act Meets Politics. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.

    Mebane, Walter R., Jr., Marc T. Ratkovic and Michael W. Tofias. 2001. ``Legislative Context, Legislator Quality and Campaign Contributions.'' Paper presented at the 2001 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, April 19-22, Palmer House, Chicago. MS available at

    Mebane, Walter R. Jr., and Gregory J. Wawro. 2002. ``Presidential Pork Barrel Politics.'' MS available at

    Wand, Jonathan N. 2006. ``Partisan Preferences and Investment Motives among Special Interest Groups.'' MS available at

    Alexander, Herbert E. 1984. Financing Politics: Money, Elections, and Political Reform. Washington, DC: CQ.

    Alexander, Herbert E., and Anthony Corrado. 1995. Financing the 1992 Election. Armonk, N.Y.: M.E. Sharpe.

    Thompson, Joel A., and Gary F. Moncrief, eds. 1998. Campaign Finance in State Legislative Elections. Washington, DC: CQ.

    R. Douglas Arnold. 1979. Congress and the Bureaucracy: A Theory of Influence. New Haven: Yale UP

    Douglas Arnold. 1990. Logic of Congressional Action. New Haven: Yale UP.

    Stein, Robert M. and Bickers, Kenneth N. 1995. Perpetuating the Pork Barrel: Policy Subsystems and American Democracy. New York: Cambridge UP.

  2. The 2000 Election Catastrophe, Etc. (Sep 14-28)

    Election Assistance Commission.

    Election Reform Information Project.

    Wand, Jonathan N., Kenneth W. Shotts, Jasjeet S. Sekhon, Walter R. Mebane, Jr., Michael C. Herron, and Henry E. Brady. 2001. ``The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida.'' American Political Science Review 95 (December): 793-810. available at

    Brady, Henry E., Michael Herron, Walter R. Mebane, Jr., Jasjeet S. Sekhon, Kenneth Shotts and Jonathan Wand. 2001. ``Law and Data: The Butterfly Ballot Episode.'' PS: Political Science and Politics 34: 59-69.

    Herron, Michael C., and Jasjeet S. Sekhon. 2003. ``Overvoting and Representation: An Examination of Overvoted Presidential Ballots in Broward and Miami-Dade Counties.'' Electoral Studies 22 (1):21-47.

    United States General Accounting Office. 2001. ``Elections: Statistical Analysis of Factors That Affected Uncounted Votes in the 2000 Presidential Election.'' Report to the Ranking Minority Member, Committee on Government Reform, House of Representatives. October 15, 2001. GAO-02-122. MS available at or available by searching in ``Find GAO Reports'' at

    MacManus, Susan A.. 2003. ``Goodbye Chads, Butterfly Ballots, Overvotes and Recount Ruckuses! Election Reform in Florida: 2000-2003.'' Paper presented at the conference on Election Reform: Politics and Policy, National Press Club, Washington, D.C., May 29, 2003. MS available at

    Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2005. ``Voting Machine Allocation in Franklin County, Ohio, 2004: Response to U.S. Department of Justice Letter of June 29, 2005.''

    Tanner, John. 2005. Letter to Nick A. Soulas, Jr., Assistant Prosecuting Attorney, Franklin County, Ohio. June 29, 2005.

    Mebane, Walter R. 2004. Communications regarding optical voting machines in Florida, 2004. and

    Sekhon, Jasjeet S. 2004. ``The 2004 Florida Optical Voting Machine Controversy: A Causal Analysis Using Matching.''

    Wand, Jonathan N. 2004. ``Evaluating the Impact of Voting Technology on the Tabulation of Voter Preferences: The 2004 Presidential Election in Florida.''

    Palazzolo, Daniel J., and James W. Ceaser. 2004. Election Reform: Politics and Policy. Lanham, MD: Lexington Books.

    Help America Vote Act of 2002, Public Law 107-252. Text of bill and other information available from

    United States General Accounting Office. 2001. ``Elections: A Framework for Evaluating Reform Proposals.'' October 15, 2001. GAO-02-90. MS available at or available by searching at

    United States General Accounting Office. 2001. ``Elections: Perspectives on Activities and Challenges Across the Nation.'' Report to Congressional Requesters. October 15, 2001. GAO-02-3. MS available at or available by searching at

    United States General Accounting Office. 2001. ``Elections: Status and Use of Federal Voting Equipment Standards.'' Report to Congressional Requesters. October 15, 2001. GAO-02-52. MS available at or available by searching at

    United States General Accounting Office. 2006. ``Elections: The Nation s Evolving Election System as Reflected in the November 2004 General Election.'' .'' Report to Congressional Committees. June, 2006. GAO-06-450. MS available at or available by searching at

    Brady, Henry E., Justin Buchler, Matt Jarvis, and John McNulty. 2001. ``Counting All the Votes: The Performance of Voting Technology in the United States.'' MS linked to

    Caltech-MIT Voting Technology Project.

    Harris, Bev, with David Allen. 2004. Black Box Voting: Ballot Tampering in the 21st Century. Renton, WA: Talion Publishing.

    NORC Florida Ballots Project. 2001.

    Kaplan, David A. 2001. The Accidental President. New York: William Morrow.

    Merzer, Martin and the Staff of the Miami Herald. 2001. The Miami Herald Report: Democracy Held Hostage. New York: St. Martin's Press.

    Nichols, John 2001. Jews for Buchanan: Did You Hear the One About the Theft of the American Presidency? New York: The New Press.

    Posner, Richard A. 2001. Breaking the Deadlock: The 2000 Election, the Constitution, and the Courts. New York: Princeton University Press.

    Sunstein, Cass R., and Richard A. Epstein. 2001. The Vote: Bush, Gore and the Supreme Court. Chicago: U of Chicago Press.

  3. Spatial Theory, Electoral Systems and Campaign Strategy (Oct 3-12)

    The Living Room Candidate: Presidential Campaign Commercials, 1952-2004.

    Roemer, John E. 2001. Political Competition : Theory and Applications. Harvard.

    Aldrich, John H. 1995. Why Parties?: The Origin and Transformation of Political Parties in America. Chicago: U of Chicago P.

    Ansolabehere, Stephen, James M. Snyder, Jr., and Charles Stewart, III. 2001. ``Candidate Positioning in U.S. House Elections.'' American Journal of Political Science 45:136-159.

    Snyder, James M., Jr., and Michael M. Ting. 2002. ``An Informational Rationale for Political Parties,'' American Journal of Political Science 46 (Jan.): 90-110.

    Cox, Gary. 1996. Making Votes Count: Strategic Coordination in the World's Electoral System. New York: Cambridge UP.

    Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row.

    Duverger, Maurice. 1959. Political Parties. New York: Wiley.

    Hinich, Melvin J., and Michael C. Munger. 1994. Ideology and the Theory of Politicial Choice. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

    Lijphart, Arend. 1990. ``The Political Consequences of Election Laws, 1945-85.'' American Political Science Review, 84 (June): 481-496.

    Lindblom, Charles E. 1977. Politics and Markets: The World's Political-Economic Systems. New York: Basic Books.

    Lupia, Arthur, and Mathew D. McCubbins. 1998. The Democratic Dilemma: Can Citizens Learn What They Need to Know? New York: Cambridge UP.

    Miller, Gary, and Norman Schofield. 2003. ``Activists and Partisan Realignment in the United States.'' American Political Science Review 97 (May): 245-260.

    Rosenstone, Steven J., Roy Behr and Edward Lazarus. 1996. Third Parties in America: Citizen Response to Major Party Failure. Expanded Revised ed. Princeton University Press.

    Shepsle, Kenneth A. 1991. Models of Multiparty Electoral Competition. New York: Harwood Academic.

    Skaperdas, Stergios and Bernard Grofman. 1995. ``Modeling Negative Campaigning.'' American Political Science Review, 89 (Mar.): 49-61.

    Sundquist, James L. 1973. Dynamics of the Party System: Alignment and Realignment of Political Parties in the United States. Washington, DC: Brookings.

    Zaller, John. 1992. The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. New York: Cambridge UP.

  4. Voter Turnout (Oct 17-19)

    McDonald, Michael P. 2005. ``United States Election Project: Voter Turnout.''

    Mebane, Walter R., Jr., and Michael C. Herron. 2005. ``Ohio 2004 Election: Turnout, Residual Votes and Votes in Precincts and Wards.'' Included in Section VI of Democratic National Committee. 2005. Democracy At Risk: The 2004 Election in Ohio. Or see

    Green, Donald P., and Alan S. Gerber. 2004. Get Out the Vote: How to Increase Voter Turnout. Brookings.

    Brady, Henry E., Kay L. Schlozman, and Sidney Verba. 1995. ``Beyond SES: A Resource Model of Political Participation.'' American Political Science Review 89 (June): 271-294.

    Herron, Michael C., and Jasjeet S. Sekhon. Forthcoming 2004. ``Black Candidates and Black Voters: Assessing the Impact of Candidate Race on Uncounted Vote Rates.'' Journal of Politics 66 (November). MS available at

    Verba, Sidney, Kay Lehman Schlozman, Henry E. Brady. 1995. Voice and Equality: Civic Voluntarism in American Politics. Harvard University Press.

    Burnham, Walter Dean. 1982. ``The Appearance and Disappearance of the American Voter.'' Chapter 4 in The Current Crisis in American Politics. Oxford: Oxford UP.

    Palfrey, Thomas R., and Howard Rosenthal. 1985. ``Voter Participation and Strategic Uncertainty.'' American Political Science Review 79:62-79.

    Piven, Frances Fox, and Richard A. Cloward. 1988. Why Americans Don't Vote. New York: Pantheon Books.

    Powell, G. Bingham Jr. 1986. ``American Voter Turnout in Comparative Perspective.'' American Political Science Review, 80:17-43.

    Riker, William H., and Peter C. Ordeshook. 1973. Introduction to Positive Political Theory. Englewood Cliffs: Prentice-Hall.

    Verba, Sidney, and Norman H. Nie. 1972. Participation in America: Political Democracy and Social Equality. New York: Harper and Row.

    Wolfinger, Raymond E., and Steven J. Rosenstone. 1980. Who Votes? New Haven: Yale UP.

  5. Partisanship, Ideology and Voting (Oct 24-Nov 9)

    Johnston, Richard, Michael G. Hagan and Kathleen Hall Jamieson. 2004. The 2000 Presidential Election and the Foundations of Party Politics. Cambridge UP.

    Abramson, Paul R., John H. Aldrich, David W. Rohde. 2001 [1983, 1987, 1991, 1995, 1999]. Change and Continuity in the 2000 [1980, 1984, 1988, 1992, 1996] Elections. Rev. ed. Washington DC: CQ.

    Berelson, Bernard R., et al. 1954. Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago: U of Chicago.

    Campbell, Angus, Philip E. Converse, Warren E. Miller and Donald E. Stokes. 1960. The American Voter. New York: Wiley.

    Miller, Warren E., and J. Merrill Shanks. 1996. The New American Voter. Harvard UP.

    Enelow, James M., and Melvin J. Hinich. 1984. The Spatial Theory of Voting: An Introduction. New York: Cambridge UP.

    Enelow, James M., and Melvin J. Hinich, eds. 1990. Advances in the Spatial Theory of Voting. Cambridge: Cambridge UP.

    Fiorina, Morris P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven: Yale UP.

    Kelley, Stanley Jr. 1983. Interpreting Elections. Princeton: Princeton UP.

    Kiewiet, D. Roderick. 1983. Macroeconomics and Micropolitics: The Electoral Effects of Economic Issues. Chicago: U of Chicago.

    Kramer, Gerald H. 1983. ``The Ecological Fallacy Revisited: Aggregate versus Individual-Level Findings on Economics and Elections, and Sociotropic Voting.'' American Political Science Review, 77:92-111.

    Nie, Norman H., Sidney Verba and John R. Petrocik. 1979. The Changing American Voter. 2d ed. Cambridge: Harvard UP.

    Green, Donald, Bradley Palmquist and Eric Schickler. 2002. Partisan Hearts and Minds: Political Parties and the Social Identities of Voters. New Haven: Yale UP.

    Wattenberg, Martin P. 1996. The Decline of American Political Parties, 1952-1994. Cambridge: Harvard UP.

    Aldrich, John H. 1980. Before the Convention: Strategies and Choices in Presidential Nomination Campaigns. Chicago: U of Chicago.

    Bartels, Larry. Presidential Primaries and the Dynamics of Public Choice. Princeton: Princeton UP.

    White, Theodore H. 1961 [1965, 1969, 1973]. The Making of the President, 1960 [1964, 1968, 1972]. New York: Atheneum.

    McGinniss, Joe. 1970. The Selling of the President, 1968. New York: Pocket Books.

    Witcover, Jules. 1977. Marathon: The Pursuit of the Presidency, 1972-1976. New York: Viking Press.

  6. Congressional Elections (Nov 14-16)

    Fenno, Richard R. Jr. 1978. Home Style: House Members in Their Districts. Boston: Little, Brown.

    Mayhew, David R. 1974. Congress: The Electoral Connection. New Haven: Yale UP.

    Bruce Cain, John Ferejohn and Morris Fiorina. 1987. The Personal Vote: Constituency Service and Electoral Independence. Harvard UP.

    Erikson, Robert S. 1990. ``Economic Conditions and the Congressional Vote: A Review of the Macrolevel Evidence.'' American Journal of Political Science 34:373-399.

    Erikson, Robert S., and Thomas R. Palfrey. 2000. ``Equilibria in Campaign Spending Games: Theory and Data.'' American Political Science Review 94:595-609.

    Jacobson, Gary C. 1990. The Electoral Origins of Divided Government: Competition in U.S. House Elections, 1946-1988. Boulder: Westview.

    Jacobson, Gary C. 1980. Money in Congressional Elections. New Haven: Yale UP.

    Jacobson, Gary C. 1989. ``Strategic Politicians and the Dynamics of U.S. House Elections, 1946-86.'' American Political Science Review 83:773-793.

    Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2000. ``Congressional Campaign Contributions, District Service and Electoral Outcomes in the United States: Statistical Tests of a Formal Game Model with Nonlinear Dynamics." In Political Complexity: Nonlinear Models of Politics, Diana Richards, ed. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Also linked to

    Abramowitz, Alan. 1992. Senate Elections. Ann Arbor: U of Michigan.

    Canon, David T. 1999. Race, Redistricting, and Representation. U of Chicago Press.

    Cox, Gary W. and Jonathan N. Katz. 2002 Elbridge Gerry's Salamander: The Electoral Consequences of the Reapportionment Revolution. Cambridge UP.

    Monmonier, Mark. 2001. Bushmanders and Bullwinkles: How Politicians Manipulate Electronic Maps and Census Data to Win Elections. Chicago: U of Chicago.

    Cameron, Charles, David Epstein, and O'Halloran, Sharyn. 1996. ``Do Majority-Minority Districts Maximize Substantive Black Representation in Congress?'' American Political Science Review 90:794-812.

    Lublin, David. 1997. The Paradox of Representation: Racial Gerrymandering and Minority Interests in Congress. Princeton: Princeton UP.

  7. Policy Moderation and Divided Government (Nov 21-30)

    Fiorina, Morris P. 1995. Divided Government. Second edition. Allyn and Bacon.

    Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2000. ``Coordination, Moderation, and Institutional Balancing in American Presidential and House Elections.'' American Political Science Review 94 (March): 37-57. MS version available at

    Mebane, Walter R., Jr., and Jasjeet S. Sekhon. 2002. ``Coordination and Policy Moderation at Midterm.'' American Political Science Review 96 (March): 141-157. MS version available at

    Sundquist, James L. 1988-1989. ``Needed: A Political Theory for the New Era of Coalition Government in the United States.'' Political Science Quarterly 103 (Winter): 613-635.

    Alesina, Alberto, Nouriel Roubini and Gerald D. Cohen. 1997. Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy. Cambridge: MIT Press. Chapters 1-3.

    Campbell, James E. 1991. ``The Presidential Surge and its Midterm Decline in Congressional Elections, 1868-1988.'' Journal of Politics 53 (May): 477-487.

    Tufte, Edward R. 1978. Political Control of the Economy. Princeton: Princeton UP.

    Nordhaus, William D. 1989. ``Alternative Approaches to the Political Business Cycle (with discussion).'' Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2:1-68.

Walter Mebane 2006-09-07