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h = 0 h = .20 h = .325 h = .487 h = .68 h = 1

g = -.08 .9, .23

g = -.025 2.0, .22 .94, .23

g = -.015 1.7, .23 .92, .235 .41 , .38 .24 , .471 .06 , .69

g = 0 1.5, .228 .91, .24 .42, .37 .29, .466 .17, .63

g = .0425 1.3, .30 .6, .29 .53, .35

g = .10 .95, .26 .74, .31 .52, .36

g = .24 .89, .43 .67, .35 .58, .33 .48, .36 .43, .42

Legend: g, service concentration; h, challenger quality.

Candidates' payoffs: ; .

 

 

strategy probability g = -.025 g = .0425 h = 0 h = .487

Legend: g, service concentration; h, challenger quality.

Candidates' payoffs: ; .

 

   

type of type of .3in Distance Test Divergence Test

post-election spending PACs .3in

education corporate .3in 4.65 .00 13.87 .00

highways corporate .3in 2.50 .01 5.67 .00

social welfare corporate .3in 3.47 .00 11.07 .00

other corporate .3in 3.11 .01 12.08 .00

education labor .3in 1.10 .41 4.23 .00

highways labor .3in 1.06 .46 1.71 .04

social welfare labor .3in .66 .82 2.84 .00

other labor .3in .44 .96 1.51 .06

education non-connected .3in 7.45 .00 13.66 .00

highways non-connected .3in 4.33 .02 6.81 .00

social welfare non-connected .3in 2.34 .01 9.42 .00

other non-connected .3in 12.32 .00 14.73 .00

Notes: Probabilities show the upper-tail cumulative distribution function value. For the distribution is . For the distribution is .

  
Figure 1: Campaign Dynamics Partial Bifurcation Set

  
Figure 2: A Flow Near a Closed Orbit at the Most Likely Campaign

  
Figure 3: Partial Bifurcation Set Near the Most Likely Type and Quality Values

  
Figure 4: Vector Field for Highway Transfers, Corporate PAC Contributions and Votes, 1984

  
Figure 5: Vector Field for Highway Transfers, Corporate PAC Contributions and Votes, 1986