Walter R. Mebane, Jr.

Professor, Department of Political Science and Department of Statistics

7735 Haven Hall, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1045

phone: 734/763-2220 email: wmebane@umich.edu

Courses

• Political Science 688-002/Statistics 701 (Winter 2008), ``Election Forensics''

• Political Science 389 (Fall 07), ``Campaigns and Elections''

• Political Science 787 (Fall 07), ``Multivariate Analysis''

• Courses taught at Cornell.

Spring 2007 Office Hours: Monday 2-4

Software Available for Downloading, with Documentation

• Robust Estimation Software (multinomRob). Walter R. Mebane, Jr., and Jasjeet S. Sekhon, 2003.

• Genetic Optimization Using Derivatives for R (RGENOUD). Walter R. Mebane, Jr., and Jasjeet S. Sekhon, 2001. (The ancestral GENOUD C program from 1997 is here.)

• Genetic Optimization and Bootstrapping of Linear Structures (GENBLIS). Walter R. Mebane, Jr., and Jasjeet S. Sekhon, 1998.

Papers Available for Downloading

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2008. `` Election Forensics: Outlier and Digit Tests in America and Russia (pdf); (postscript)'' Prepared for presentation at The American Electoral Process conference, Center for the Study of Democratic Politics, Princeton University, May 1--3, 2008.

• Herron, Michael C., Walter R. Mebane Jr. and Jonathan N. Wand. 2008 `` Voting Technology and the 2008 New Hampshire Primary (pdf)'' Working paper. Data and program files.

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2007. `` Election Forensics: Statistical Interventions in Election Controversies (pdf); (postscript)'' Prepared for presentation at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago, Aug 30-Sep 2.

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2007. `` Statistics for Digits (pdf); (postscript)'' Prepared for presentation at the 2007 Summer Meeting of the Political Methodology Society, Pennsylvania State University, July 18--21.

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2007. `` Election Forensics: Statistics, Recounts and Fraud (pdf); (postscript)'' Prepared for presentation at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, IL, April 12--16.

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2007. `` Evaluating Voting Systems To Improve and Verify Accuracy (pdf); (postscript)'' Prepared for presentation at the 2007 Annual Meeting of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, San Francisco, CA, February 16, 2007, and at the Bay Area Methods Meeting, Berkeley, CA, March 1, 2007.

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr., and David L. Dill. 2007. `` Factors Associated with the Excessive CD-13 Undervote in the 2006 General Election in Sarasota County, Florida (pdf).'' Draft of January 18, 2007.

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2006. `` Election Forensics: The Second-digit Benford's Law Test and Recent American Presidential Elections (pdf); (postscript)'' Prepared for delivery at the Election Fraud Conference, Salt Lake City, Utah, September 29--30, 2006.

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2006. `` Election Forensics: Vote Counts and Benford's Law (pdf); (postscript)'' Prepared for delivery at the 2006 Summer Meeting of the Political Methodology Society, UC-Davis, July 20-22.

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2006. `` Detecting Attempted Election Theft: Vote Counts, Voting Machines and Benford's Law (pdf); (postscript)'' Prepared for delivery at the 2006 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, April 20-23, Palmer House, Chicago.

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2005. `` Timing and Turnout in Ohio'' TomPaine.com, 21 July 2005.

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2005. `` Voting Machine Allocation in Franklin County, Ohio, 2004: Response to U.S. Department of Justice Letter of June 29, 2005''

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2005. `` Democratic National Committee Voting Rights Institute Report on the 2004 Election in Ohio: Reports, Archival Computing Files and Replication Data Files''

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2005. ``Does it Help or Hurt Kerry if Nader is on the Ballot? (with Israel Waismel-Manor) (pdf); (postscript)''

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2005. ``Partisan Messages, Unconditional Strategies and Coordination in American Elections (pdf); (postscript)''

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2003. ``The Wrong Man is President! Overvotes in the 2000 Presidential Election in Florida (pdf)'' Appears in Perspectives on Politics, September 2004.
Replication data.

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr., and Jasjeet S. Sekhon. 2003. ``Robust Estimation and Outlier Detection for Overdispersed Multinomial Models of Count Data (pdf); (postscript)'' Appears in the American Journal of Political Science, April 2004.

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr., and Gregory J. Wawro. 2002. ``Presidential Pork Barrel Politics (pdf); (postscript).''

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr., and Jasjeet S. Sekhon. 2002. ``Coordination and Policy Moderation at Midterm (pdf); (postscript).'' Appears in the American Political Science Review, March 2002.

• Wand, Jonathan N., Kenneth W. Shotts, Jasjeet S. Sekhon, Walter R. Mebane, Jr., Michael C. Herron, Henry E. Brady. 2001. ``The Butterfly Did It: The Aberrant Vote for Buchanan in Palm Beach County, Florida''. Appears in the American Political Science Review, December 2001. RELATED WORK

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2001. `` Coordination among American Voters with Heterogeneous Expectations (pdf); (postscript)'' Prepared for delivery at the Annual Public Choice Society Meeting 2001, March 9-11, San Antonio, Texas.

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr., Marc T. Ratkovic and Michael W. Tofias. 2001. ``Legislative Context, Legislator Quality and Campaign Contributions (pdf); (postscript)'' Prepared for delivery at the 2001 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, April 19-22, Palmer House, Chicago. A previous version of this paper was presented at the 2000 Summer Methods Conference, UCLA, July 20-22.

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2000. ``Coordination, Moderation, and Institutional Balancing in American Presidential and House Elections. (postscript); (pdf)'' Appears in the American Political Science Review, March 2000.

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr. 2000. ``Congressional Campaign Contributions, District Service and Electoral Outcomes in the United States: Statistical Tests of a Formal Game Model with Nonlinear Dynamics." In Political Complexity: Nonlinear Models of Politics, Diana Richards, ed. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. (html; ps)

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr., and Jonathan Wand. 1999. ``The Dynamics of Campaign Contributions in U.S. House Elections. (postscript); (pdf)'' Paper presented at the 1999 Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, September 2-5, 1999.

• Mebane, Walter R., Jr., and Jonathan Wand. 1999. ``Poisson-Normal Dynamic Generalized Linear Mixed Models of U.S. House Campaign Contributions. (postscript); (pdf)'' Paper presented at the 1999 Summer Political Methodology Meetings, 15-18 July 1999 at Texas A&M University.

• Wand, Jonathan, and Walter R. Mebane Jr. 1999. ``Learning in Campaigns: A Policy Moderating Model of Individual Contributions to House Candidates. (postscript); (pdf)'' Paper presented at the 1999 Annual Meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, April 15-17, Palmer House Hilton, Chicago, IL.

• Sekhon, Jasjeet and Walter R. Mebane, Jr. 1998. ``Genetic Optimization Using Derivatives: Theory and Application to Nonlinear Models (ps).'' Political Analysis, vol 7.

Miscellaneous

• Letter Sent to the Editor of Common Dreams Regarding ``Evidence Mounts That The Vote May Have Been Hacked,'' by Thom Hartmann Walter R. Mebane, Jr., November 8, 2004.

• Letter Sent to Kathy Dopp (organizer of ustogether.org) Regarding the Responses to my Letter that were Posted at ustogether.org Walter R. Mebane, Jr., November 12, 2004.

Other