NATIONAL AND RELIGIOUS CHAUVINISM GONE NUCLEAR - THE EXTREME DANGERS OF INDIAN-PAKISTANI NUCLEAR TESTING By Tom O'Donnell (twod@umich.edu), 29 May 1998 On 11 May, the newly formed Indian government coalition led by the Hindu-chauvinist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) caught the world by surprise with the detonation of three nuclear devices. THE 'EXPERIMENTS' The three blasts took place at two sites thought to be about a kilometer apart in the northwestern Thar desert of Rajasthan state, just five kilometers or so from local villages. One site contained a thermonuclear (fusion) bomb - a Ôcity busterÕ in US-Russian parlance - and a large fission bomb. The other site contained a low-yield fission device. Indian scientists said they set off all three bombs simultaneously as they were afraid the shock wave from the thermonuclear device would collapse the shaft going down to the low-yield bomb. The combined shock registered 5.0 on the Richter scale at seismic stations world-wide. The Indian government said the first set of three were about 55 kilotons total, though US weapons-lab scientists thought 15 kilotons a better estimate. Two days later, another two devices were set off. The yield from these was sub-kiloton, too low to detect even at a near-by Pakistani seismic station. Some foreign scientists speculated that these two may have been of a type designed to allow future tests of sub-critical explosions. The US, for example, still conducts sub-critical explosions to determine the reliability of stockpiled weapons and presumably as R&D of new concepts. In any case, the results were quite sufficient to officially usher India into Òdeclared and activeÓ member-status of the nuclear club. At a press conference on 17 May, APJ Abdul Kalam, an engineer who is also a well-known science advisor to the Indian minister of defense, and responsible for a plethora of new and expensive high-tech military R&D which India has begun over the past several years, boasted that Indian scientists and technicians had gotten the blasts off very quickly. He said, ÒWe were given T minus 30 days to commence the experiment... after the political go ahead was given.Ó It must have been rather sobering, then, to see their Pakistani counterparts answer this ÒHindu bombÓ with a series of five ÒIslamic bombsÓ on 28 May - taking just 17 days of preparation time after the first Indian 'experiment.' And, so, the race towards mutual assured destruction (MAD) begins in earnest on the Asian sub-continent. As this is being written, there are reports that the Pakistani government is preparing a second set of underground explosions about 100 kilometers from their first set, near the Iranian border. From the size and types of weapons which both India and Pakistan have detonated, it seems apparent that they have all been rather compact, ÔpracticalÕ weapons, designed for deployment atop intermediate-range missiles, on fighter planes and even in tactical artillery shells. Clearly, this is madness. But, as the dust settles, it is becoming disturbingly clear just how dangerous the situation now is on the Indian sub-continent. This is a madness with a calculated and decidedly reactionary ideological and political purpose. WHY NOW? India has had a demonstrated ability to manufacture and explode nuclear weapons since 1974 when the Congress Party government of Indira Gandhi exploded the countryÕs first nuclear device. At the time a great deal of cynical effort was expended to portray this as a ÔpeacefulÕ application of nuclear technology. In fact, once this explosion occurred, it was generally accepted that India could deploy some manner of nuclear weapons in a short period of time, should it decide to do so. Subsequent Indian - and Pakistani - governments consistently refused to sign either the 1970 Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty or the 1986 Comprehensive Test-Ban Treaty. When Rajiv Gandhi was in power, the government conducted a diplomatic campaign to explain its refusal to sign, and declared itself in favor of full international disarmament, saying that it would be unfair for India and other ÔvirtualÕ nuclear powers to have to renounce nuclear weapons while the five active nuclear powers reserved for themselves the right to retain them. One can debate how genuine or convenient this stance was. In any case, none of the then-five declared powers ever called IndiaÕs bluff by offering a proposal for total nuclear disarmament. Nor did they sieze the opportunities created by the end of the cold war to seriously begin to destroy all nuclear weapons when they had no excuse not to. Fortunately all three of IndiaÕs wars with Pakistan took place before its nuclear era had begun (1947-48, 1965 and 1971-73) as did its war with China (1962). In 1990 Pakistan declared that it too had become Ònuclear capable,Ó but did not actually conduct underground tests. In retaliation, all US military aid to Pakistan was cutoff and has remained cutoff since. And so, since 1990 there has been a state of ÔvirtualÕ nuclear parity between Pakistan and India. THE BJP Why change things? Why now? If anything IndiaÕs relations with China have been improving over the past couple years, as they have been with Pakistan - at least when measured by the yardstick of their mutual historical enmity. Of course, the simple answer to this question is that the national-chauvinist, ÔneoÕ-fascist BJP, has just creeked into power. By the slimmest margin of parliamentary maneuverings, party leader Mr. Atal Bithar Vajpayee became the Indian Prime minister. In the recent 1998 elections, the BJP won a net gain of 16 seats (5%) from its 1996 electoral position and ended up as the party with the biggest share of seats. But their share comprises only 25% of the total. It took many repeated attempts before Vajpayee was able to finally cajole together a coalition consisting of some 100 other members of parliament from 14 different parties, and take power about three months ago. Certainly one thing I find interesting about the recent nuclear surprise delivered to the world by the BJP, is that the entire international community was not in a state of alarm upon Mr. VajpayeeÕs ascension to power. UNALARMED AT FASCISM LetÕs put things in some perspective. Consider as an example, the following: Imagine for a moment that some well-known racist and fascist party were to come to power once again in Western Europe. Consider further that this party has advocated revoking special laws that recognize the marriage, divorce and property ownership customs of a certain religious minority, that the party holds that the ÒrightfulÓ and ÒhistoricalÓ extent of the nation includes the entire territory of about 5 neighboring countries, that this party was involved in the destruction of a major religious shrine of the hated minority and has declared that it will build itÕs own religionÕs shrine upon its ashes, and, in general, that one day it will purify the nation of all traces of the hated minorityÕs religion and culture. Now, imagine further that this party is considered to be "too moderate" by its parent movement and that this parent organization is a type of secret society whose members have successfully made concerted efforts to move into various positions throughout the federal and state bureaucracies. Now, in imagining this scenario - nuclear weapons aside for the moment - wouldnÕt you think that the Ôinternational communityÕ would have been somewhat alarmed at the ascendency of such a party to power? Now, stop imagining, and realize that this has actually occurred not in some European country this time Ôround, but in Asia, and in the second most populous nation on earth? The hated minority are IndiaÕs 160 million muslims and the parent organization is the fanatically, Hindu-chauvinist Rashtroya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS). I think you can begin to imagine what the consequences of this very real present-day scenario might be based on historical experience. After all, in the 20th century the ascendency of such parties have not been without precedent. PROMISES OF ÔMODERATIONÕ But, no! The international media and the various governments - not to mention international financial markets - did not seem particularly alarmed. How could this be? Maybe it is because, in the past election especially, the BJP made great efforts to publically moderate its well-known chauvinistic positions: It promised not to change the laws on Muslim marriage, divorce and property ownership, it promised not to build a Hindu temple on the site of the demolished Babri mosque at Ayodhya, and insisted that it should not be considered a threat to peace by muslim Pakistan or other neighbors. And, as for nuclear weapons, while pointedly reaffirming its refusal to renounce nuclear weapons, it softened the apprehension some felt about this by specifically promising that a three-month review of IndiaÕs defense needs would be undertaken before any major changes would be made by the new government. WHY THE HURRY? By going against this promise and testing nuclear weapons, the BJP has indeed created some problems for itself internationally, and brought sanctions upon the country which will cost dearly. However, they were clearly aware that all this would happen. If the relations with Pakistan and China were going better than they had for some time, then why did the BJP go ahead with these tests in such a hasty manner? The answer is apparently that it hoped the chauvinist upsurge these tests would create in the electorate would allow it to call new elections soon and capture an outright majority in the parliament. The BJP had been in power once before, but for something like only 13 days. Apparently it was very fearful that its new found grasp on power might go the way of its last. In this scenario the entrance of India into open and active development of nuclear weapons is particularly reckless in that it is primarily for jingoist domestic consumption aimed at boosting the prospects of a particular, reactionary political party. But, it was not the BJP alone which was celebrating in the days immediately following the blasts. And, the military buildup which had been conducted under the direction of the science advisor, APJ Abdul Kalam, for several years, had obviously been initiated by previous, non-BJP governments. These facts indicate a certain enthusiasm of the Indian bourgeoisie as a whole for this military build up and nuclear adventurism. Accordingly, the new head of the Congress Party, Sonja Gandhi, initially announced that her party supported the explosions even though they had been handed to it as a fait-accompli by the neo-fascists. After a few more days, however, this party and other opposition parties apparently realized the increased danger to their own electoral positions in the face of the BJP's popular nuclear antics, and began criticizing the governmentÕs decision in parliament. But, the fascist BJP has the reigns of power for now, and, based on its first surprise in office, one can only imagine what further adventures it may launch - from domestic anti-muslim pogroms to military threats and ultimatums it may (and has begun to) deliver to Pakistan - all in order to whip up religious and national chauvinism and consolidate its chances for winning an outright parliamentary majority in a round of early elections which it could call whenever it feels the time is ripe. These seem to be the motivations which propel the extremely dangerous nuclear adventures of the current Indian government. INTERNATIONAL ECONOMIC INTEREST But, still, this does not tell us why the Western powers and Japan were not more wary of the BJPÕs rise to power. In fact, just after the tests were conducted, when these powers gathered at the Group of 7 Meeting in London and had an opportunity to make some coordinated response, their actions were not very impressive. Aside from the automatic US sanctions, and some partial aid sanctions by Japan, Germany and Sweden, there was nowhere near the outrage one might have expected. France, Great Britain and Russia, for example, have flatly stated their disinterest in taking any steps against India or Pakistan. This is likely due, amongst other reasons, to the current economic interests of the Western powers and Japan in IndiaÕs economy. REFORMS AND OPENNESS To give some perspective on this economic interest, one should note that, in 1991, India began the process of reform of its domestic economy and state-run enterprises, including a new ÔopeningÕ to foreign investment. This is the familiar process which has become a general, world-wide characteristic of present-day capitalist development, now involving virtually every post-colonial nation state. IndiaÕs economy has, indeed, grown with unprecedented rapidity since the 1991 reforms, reaching an average of 7 percent over the fiscal years of 1995 through 1997, before entering into a slump this year. As in other large post-colonial countries, the Indian urban middle class has also been expanding rapidly. Depending on the looseness of oneÕs criteria, this class may represent 20% or so of IndiaÕs population. Although this class is a minority of the nation, and is embedded within a sea of horribly dire urban and rural poverty, nevertheless, given the size of IndiaÕs population - nearly a billion people - the absolute size this new Indian middle class is approaching the total populations of US or Europe. One can imagine how attractive a target market such a population is for both international and domestic Indian capital. POLITICAL CRISIS There are many economic, political and social parallels between India and other post-colonial states undergoing this process. Like Mexico, for example, where the corrupt and cynical ÔdinosaursÕ of the old ruling party, the PRI, are being seriously challenged for the first time in decades by new parties of the left, center and right, so too in India, the Congress Party which ruled the national government in Delhi since independence, finally lost its grip on power in 1996. In 1996-97 a United Front coalition government ruled India. The one factor holding together this coalition was its opposition to the fascist BJP coming to power. But, finally, the Congress Party withdrew its support from the coalition and this government fell. This ushered in a period of crisis for the Indian ruling class, during which no one party nor coalition of parties was able to form a stable government. Popular discontent at the obvious political corruption, the selling of votes and influence and the government's inability to address the nation's social and economic inequalities was growing. Western, Japanese and other foreign investors became afraid that political instability would mean that India would not be able to progress towards more ÔopennessÕ to foreign capital and would be unable to carry out a next phase of internal reforms of the bureaucracy and economy which were needed to keep up the inertia of the initial reforms. Thus, one conclusion that begs to be drawn from the rather surprisingly low level of international concern about the ascendency of the chauvinist BJP and the attendant proliferation of nuclear weapons, is that the western powers and Japan are simply more interested in SOMEBODY being clearly in charge in India, even if it is the religious and national chauvinist BJP and their associates of the RSS. This expediency, is, of course, fraught with dangers. APOLOGIES AND MISCONCEPTIONS A few more observations need to be made about some opinions which seem to come up repeatedly in political discourse during the past couple of weeks: 1) One line of thought minimizes the danger of the Indian (and Pakistani) blasts by claiming that the Indian government actually only intended to Òget dataÓ which would Òallow it to signÓ the Test-Ban Treaty. This explanation - really an apology - is not realistic. The French have, for example, been testing for decades and still didn't think they had enough data. I also doubt the political thrust of the new government is that it is simply aiming to enable India to set the stage for it to sign the treaty "with dignity," given their chauvinistic politics. The motivation for the tests seems purely chauvinistic. These are REAL national and religious chauvinists in power, why would they have such an ultimately beneficent purpose? 2) Regarding the supposed "scientific value" of these tests, I'd expect that was minimized considerably since they blew up 5 bombs in a few days and with three of them at the same time. The same goes for the very hurried Pakistani tests. The big rush leaves no significant time to collect data and adjust subsequent tests to refine the 'science'. The rapidity seems to indicate a minimal motivation to serve scientific-technical purposes and again reinforces their chauvinistic character. 3) Some have said that the tests were somehow justified because they were ÒreallyÓ directed against China by India. In fact, provocative statements against China by the new governmentÕs foreign minister before the tests added to speculation about this anti-Chinese motivation. However, it is interesting to note in retrospect that the BJP apparently didnÕt think the foreign minister needed to know about the coming nuclear blasts beforehand, when he was making these statements! There is little evidence that they were ÒreallyÓ directed against China, but, even if they were, how is this a Ôjustification?Ó I cannot see any progressive (progressive nationalistic) aspect even if it was "really directed against China" - which is indeed an active nuclear state - rather than Pakistan. Neither motivation is "better." Put bluntly, it seems that either potential conflict (with China or Pakistan) would be reactionary on both sides, regardless of whichever of the three candidates would initiate it. And finally, in response to the notion of developing nuclear weapons as some sort of "progressive national defense," it is especially notable that none of these three nations are presently victims of western imperialist expansion, nor are their sovereign territories being threatened by foreign (Japanese or western) imperialist regimes. Therefore, the Indian and Pakistani tests are no more "progressive" than was the old US-USSR arms race. Once the USSR demonstrated their acquisition of nuclear weapons to break the US monopoly and its blackmail potential, then there was no reason for it to continue as it did (about 700 nuclear tests to the US' 1000 tests). And the same criticism applies to China (45 tests). There was absolutely no national defense justification for India to conduct these tests and move itself and Pakistan from 'virtual' nuclear powers to active nuclear powers embroiled in an arms race. They are as much a crime against ALL humanity as were the French continuation of their tests in recent years, reflecting essentially similar reactionary, great-power military aspirations, not legitimate defense interests. 4) Internationally, especially now that Pakistan has answered with its own blasts, quite literally "everyone and anyone" who has the capability on stand-by may now feel emboldened at some point to start testing (North. Korea, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Taiwan, several candidates in the south of old USSR, some in South America, etc.) This is REALLY dangerous. And, this works in another direction as well: the old powers will also feel much less morally and politically constrained against their favorite "rogue" states. Let us not forget that the US just last year delivered public threats to Libya, saying that it had developed a new Òbunker-bustingÓ nuclear weapon SPECIFICALLY designed to penetrate a particular mountain bunker in Libya where the US expects the Libyan government is producing chemical weapons. By its irresponsible actions, India has taken a big step in unleashing the old powers to flex their nuclear muscles too. 5) India is not Òmore secureÓ now than before. The real problem for India since the tests, is that the present adventurist government in India has just increased by a very large factor the likelihood of a major Indian city or cities being destroyed by nuclear attack in the next decade. The reality is that, if a border war or confrontation at sea took place now with China, or some border skirmish with Pakistan takes place, the chances of a nuclear catastrophe are infinitely higher, not lower, than they were a month ago. This is where nuclear weapons are fundamentally different from all conventional weapons: If the chauvinists government in New Delhi thinks it could ever actually use or threaten to use its new bombs against one of these neighbors without a very high likelihood of causing Delhi, Bombay or some other great Indian city to be incinerated as well, then it is REALLY crazy. It is obvious that the Indian military could do just as little to intercept a determined nuclear attack launched against one of its cities as could the Pakistani military to protect its cities. The main threat to Indian citizensÕ security appears to be the people now running their own government who have now made them sitting ducks! 6) The only immediate way out seems to be the completion of the tasks of the bourgeois-democratic revolutions in India, Pakistan and China by the most radical and mass-popular means. Democratic reform and modernization is indeed urgently needed in these nations. But this will be most effective from below, not imposed from above in a manner most suitable to the international investors and Indian, Pakistani or Chinese big capital. The nuclear chauvinism of the Indian, Pakistani and Indian ruling circles is a barometer of their desperation to avoid the specter of a popular democratic movement like that which recently swept Indonesia. If the peoples of these states take this path in a timely manner, then they will be justified in their national pride and a claim to international leadership. With the advent of an Asian nuclear arms race and the coming to power of the chauvinistic and fascist BJP, this issue of revolution has become really an immediate question of the future of these great nations. 29-may-98