Cautious Optimism.

The other day, Mom told me that Dubya would be reelected. She said it so matter-of-factly, with that unique Mom Credibility, that the back of my neck went prickly.

Fortunately, I found reason for optimism. First of all, there's the incumbent 50-percent rule. When the incumbent polls at lower than 50%, his percentage of support is like a ceiling, while the challenger's percentage of support is like a floor, and likely to go up. Bush is running less than 50% nationwide and in all the swing states. So, if the candidates are fluctuating around 47-48%, who gets the remaining 5% or so? Usually the challenger does. In other words, if you're not with Bush by now, you're against him.

I think that Kerry's support is underestimated. There's the cell phone voter, who doesn't get to participate in political polls but who might just go for Kerry; lots and lots of newly registered voters who aren't represented in the political polls (last I heard, Democrats had a strong lead in new voter registration) and the youth vote, which strongly favors Kerry.

But if we can believe the polls, more reason for optimism comes from Donkey Rising's interpretation of the final Gallup poll before election day. And the electoral vote predictor sees Kerry beating Bush in the Electoral College, 298 to 231.

Lastly, other experts have weighed in to call the election for Kerry. I know that some people are hanging their hats on the Redskins loss to the Packers, but I think that one is cancelled out by the Weekly Reader.

As I said, I'm cautiously optimistic. Mom, I promise not to gloat in your presence.