UP 504 Final Research Project

Analyzing Walkable Retail Potential in the Werton Plaza Market Area

------Werton Plaza Redevelopment Site (shaded) - Livonia, MI-------------------------------------Thematic Map of Household Income by Census Tract Near Werton Plaza Site

Jaimie Cohen and Scott Curry
April 2, 2008

Research Question -
What land use types could be best supported by the market area immediately surrounding Werton Plaza?

Hypothesis -
(Based on discussions with stakeholders)
The strongest commercial potential in areas within walking distance will be in the categories of food, entertainment, and basic necessities?

Methodology -
1. Inventory the existing retail within our market areas and define different retail “types.”
2. Based upon retail inventory and consumer spending data from Demographicsnow.com group, retail types into different nominal categories.
3. Examine identified market indicators (i.e. median income, households, consumer spending figures) in the "Immediate" and "Primary Market Areas" surrounding Werton Plaza by aggregating census tract data at these levels.
4. Analyze and organize results into charts and thematic maps.
5. Briefly compare results to qualitative market indicators, including interviews with community officials and real estate brokers.

Data -
Demographic and detailed consumer spending data from Demographicsnow.com through the UMich Libraries was combined into different primary categories.Our aggregated dataset was comprised of 9 census tracts that form an approximate one mile radius around the Werton Plaza redevelopment site. This radius was thought to be the maximum conceivable extent of Werton Plaza's potential walking-distance market. The "Immediate Market Area" was defined as the single census tract surrounding Werton Plaza (census tract 5561). The remaining 8 census tracts comprise the "Primary Market Area."

Synopsis of Results -

GRAPH 1.

GRAPH 2.

GRAPH 3.

Note - the census tracts that compose the "Primary Market Area" are sorted left-to-right from highest median income to lowest in each retail category.

GRAPH 4.

Note - the census tracts that compose the "Primary Market Area" are sorted left-to-right from highest median income to lowest in each retail category.

GRAPH 5.

Note - the census tracts that compose the "Primary Market Area" are sorted left-to-right from highest median income to lowest in each retail category.

Conclusions -
Although the Immediate Market Area (census tract 5561) has a high spending potential in terms of median income, this is tempered somewhat by the limited number of households in the census tract.

Transportation, Grocery, Food/Entertainment, and Home Improvement/Furnishings have the highest aggregate commercial potential in the area, followed by miscellaneous retail categories. This seems to suggest that markets, restaurants, hardware stores, and various neighborhood commercial uses may provide a viable program of development for walkable area.

Understandably, census tracts with lower median incomes tend to spend a higher percentage of their incomes in order to provide for their needs. The larger disparity in certain categories, however, indicates that there are some basic necessities for which lower income households are not able to alter their spending patterns to avoid (i.e. transportation and grocery), and others which they are able to avoid (i.e. luxury and hobby). Land uses that provide these "unsubstitutable" products would be able to cater to a variety of potential clientele.

It is interesting to note that a large disparity exists in the Food/Entertainment category. This would seem to indicate that lower tracts are not dramatically curbing their spending on entertainment relative to higher income tracts. In other words the demand for Food/Entertainment activities is not affected in a linear fashion by income. Food/Entertainment uses may therefore be an even more viable land use option than originally thought.

The data supports conclusions parallel with the intution and land use recommendations made by interviewed stakeholders.

Scott Curry - spcurry@umich.edu
Jaimie Cohen - jrcohe@umich.edu

UP504 Quantitative Methods in Planning
University of Michigan - Urban and Regional Planning Program

April 2, 2008