The Effect of Housing Price on Retail Type

Jaimie Cohen and Scott Curry
March 19, 2008

   
Overview:

This study is part of a larger project in which a market area analysis process will be used to inform recommendations for a site redevelopment of Werton Plaza in Livonia, MI. This portion of the research focuses on retail potential near the Werton Plaza site based on 2 market area radii.

Research Question: Does the average housing price in an area affect the typical retail types that are attracted to that area?
Hypothesis: There is a direct relationship between the “type” of retail in our defined market areas and indicators such as the average housing price within the areas.
Units of Analysis: Primary Market Area - 1 mile radius;
Secondary Market Area – 3 mile radius
Data Required and Sources: Data aggregated at the Primary and Secondary Market Area levels, including information on demographics, property values, real estate prices, locations of various existing retail, and consumer spending patterns. Data is available from United States Census 2000, Claritas market analysis tool, and Ludwig & Seeley Real Estate. 

Methodology:

1. Inventory the existing retail within our market areas and define different retail “types.”
2. Group retail types into different ordinal categories.
3. Examine identified market indicators (i.e. housing price) in the Primary and Secondary Market Areas surrounding Werton Plaza by aggregating data at 1 and 3 mile radii.
4. Analyze correlation between market area indicators and the location of retail types.
5. Organize results into charts and thematic maps.
6. Briefly compare results to qualitative market indicators including interviews with community officials and real estate brokers.

Anticipated Results:

The area with the highest average housing price will most likely have more retail variety and a greater relative number of big box and high-end anchors and grocery stores.

More broadly, we anticipate our analysis would suggest that land use recommendations for site redevelopment within our market area may be informed by the relationship between housing price and existing retail types. We also expect that this process may uncover several other useful relationships that may inform potential site redevelopment.

Selected Bibliography:

- Claritas Data provided by Demographicsnow.com
- Elder, Michelle. 2007.  Methodologies of Market Research and Focus Groups.
- Ludwig & Seeley Incorporated – Commercial Real Estate. http://www.ludwigseeley.com/
- McNeil Ruth. Business to Business Market Research: Understanding and Measuring Business Markets. London ; Sterling, VA: Kogan Page, 2005.
- United States Census 2000. www.census.gov/
- Urban, Glen L. and John R. Hauser. Design and Marketing of New Products. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall. 1993.

   


Scott Curry - spcurry@umich.edu
Jaimie Cohen - jrcohe@umich.edu

UP504 Quantitative Methods in Planning
University of Michigan - Urban and Regional Planning Program

March 19, 2008