Director, Survey Research Center
734 764-8365 Office
734 764-5419 Economics
734 763-9831 FAX
shapiro @ umich.edu
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NBER Reporter Research Summary
Economic Behavior Program Projects (EBP-Projects)RESET: Re-Engineering Statistics using Economic Transactions
Risk Tolerance and Risk Aversion
Cognitive Economics Study (CogEcon)
University of Michigan Social Media Job Loss Index
Research Data Center (RDC)
Census-Enhanced Health and Retirement Study (CenHRS)
Research on Economic Stimulus: Tax Rebates and Investment Incentives
NBER video about government shutdown
The Chart That Shows the Financial Peril Facing Federal Workers New York Times opinion, January 16, 2019
of Michigan press
release January 16, 2019
Testimony, "Economic Effects of Government Shutdowns" Committee on Small Business, U.S. House of Representatives, February 6, 2019
Scanner Data and Price Indexes, eds. Robert Feenstra and Matthew D. Shapiro.
Chicago: Press, 2003. Universityof Chicago
Big Data for 21st Century Economic Statistics, eds. Katharine G. Abraham, Ron S. Jarmin, Brian Moyer, and Matthew D. Shapiro. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2022.
"How Individuals Respond to a Liquidity Shock: Evidence from the 2013 Government Shutdown." by Michael Gelman, Shachar Kariv, Matthew D. Shapiro, Dan Silverman, and Steven Tadelis. Journal of Public Economics 189 (2020) pdf appendix https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.06.007
"Effects of a Government-Academic Partnership: Has the NSF-Census Bureau Research Network Helped Secure the Future of the Federal Statistical System?" by D. H. Weinberg, J.M. Abowd, R.F. Belli, N. Cressie, D.C. Folch, S.H. Holan, M.C. Levenstein, K.M. Olson, J.P. Reiter, M.D. Shapiro, and J. Smyth. Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology 7 (2019) 589-619. https://doi.org/10.1093/jssam/smy023 pdf appendix
"Minding Your Ps and Qs: Going from Micro to Macro in Measuring Prices and Quantities." by Gabriel Ehrlich, John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, David Johnson, and Matthew D. Shapiro. AEA Papers and Proceedings 109 (2019) 438-443. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20191004 pdf
"Reconsidering the Consequences of Worker Displacements: Firm versus Worker Perspective." by Aaron Flaaen, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Isaac Sorkin. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11(2) (2019) 193–227. pdf appendices
“Harnessing Naturally Occurring Data to Measure the Response of Spending to Income” by Michael Gelman, Shachar Kariv, Matthew D. Shapiro, Dan Silverman, and Steven Tadelis. Science 345 (11 July 2014) 212-215.
Links to article and supplemental materials: reprint, abstract, full text, and supplemental materials
Link to data at Berkeley Econometrics Lab (EML): data
“Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession: Is This Time Different?” by Kathryn M.E. Dominguez and Matthew D. Shapiro. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 103(3) (2013) 147–152. PDF file, On-line Appendix, Data files.
“Why Does Trend Growth Affect Equilibrium Employment? A New Explanation of an Old Puzzle” by Michael W.L. Elsby and Matthew D. Shapiro, American Economic Review 102(4) (2012) 1378–1413. PDF file, On-line Appendix, Data files. Previously circulated as "Stepping Off the Wage Escalator: The Effects of Wage Growth on Equilibrium Employment."
“Check in the Mail or More in the Paycheck: Does the Effectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus Depend on How It Is Delivered?” by Claudia R. Sahm, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Joel Slemrod. American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 4 (2012) 216–250. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pol.4.3.216. PDF file
"Household Response to the 2008 Tax Rebates: Survey Evidence and Aggregate Implications" by Claudia R. Sahm, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Joel Slemrod. Tax Policy and the Economy 24 (2010) 69-110. PDF file
"Oil and the Macroeconomy: Lessons for Monetary Policy" by Ethan S. Harris, Bruce C. Kasman, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Kenneth D. West. US Monetary Policy Forum Conference Paper, February 2009 (Revised November 2009). PDF file
"Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?" by Matthew D. Shapiro and Joel Slemrod. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 99 (May 2009) 374-379. PDF file
"Risk Preferences in the PSID: Individual Imputations and Family Covariation." by Miles S. Kimball, Claudia R. Sahm, and Matthew D. Shapiro. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 99 (May 2009) 363-368. PDF file Appendix
For information about using risk tolerance imputations, see risk preference data page.
"Imputing Risk Tolerance from Survey Responses" by Miles S. Kimball, Claudia Sahm, and Matthew D. Shapiro, Journal of the American Statistical Association 103 (Sept 2008) 1028-1038. PDF file
For information about using risk tolerance imputations, see risk preference data page.
"Temporary Investment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence from Bonus Depreciation" by Christopher L. House and Matthew D. Shapiro. American Economic Review 98:3 (June 2008) 737-768. PDF file | Summary from NBER Digest.
"Monetary Policy When Potential Output Is Uncertain: Understanding the Growth Gamble of the 1990s," by Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Matthew D. Shapiro. Journal of Monetary Economics 54 (2007) 1132-1162. PDF file
"Why Do Computers Depreciate?" by Michael J. Geske, Valerie A. Ramey, and Matthew D. Shapiro. In Hard-to-Measure Goods and Services: Essays in Memory of Zvi Griliches, Ernst R. Berndt and Charles R. Hulten, Eds.
. PDF file Chicago: Universityof Chicago Press, 2007
"Phased-In Tax Cuts and Economic Activity" by Christopher L. House and Matthew D. Shapiro. American Economic Review 96 (December 2006) 1835-1949. PDF file
Discussion of "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates" by Eric Engen and R. Glenn Hubbard, NBER Macroeconomics Annual 19 (2004) 148-156. PDF file
"Did The 2001 Tax Rebate Stimulate Spending? Evidence From Taxpayer Surveys" by Matthew D. Shapiro and Joel Slemrod. Tax Policy and the Economy, ed James Poterba.
: MIT Press, 2003. PDF file Cambridge
"Consumer Response to Tax Rebates" (Revised version, October 2002) by Matthew D. Shapiro and Joel Slemrod. American Economic Review 93 (March 2003) 381-396 PDF file
Executive Summary | Survey Instrument. Working paper version with regression analysis Working Paper
"Displaced Capital: A Study of Aerospace Plant Closings" by Valerie Ramey and Matthew Shapiro Journal of Political Economy 109 (October 2001) 958-992. PDF file
"Productivity Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?" by Susanto Basu, John G. Fernald, and Matthew D. Shapiro, Prepared for the Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy, November 2000, Revised June 2001 PDF file Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 55 (2001) 117-165.
"Labor and the Sustainability of Output and Productivity Growth" (January 2001) by Rebecca M. Blank and Matthew D. Shapiro. Prepared for the Russell-Sage Foundation/Century Foundation Sustainable Employment Conference. PDF file
"High-Frequency Substitution and the Measurement of Price Indexes" by Robert Feenstra and Matthew Shapiro. In Scanner Data and Price Indexes, eds. Robert Feenstra and Matthew Shapiro.
Chicago: Press, 2003. PDF file Universityof Chicago
"Measuring the Value of Cataract Surgery," by Irving Shapiro, Matthew Shapiro, and David Wilcox. In Medical Care Output and Productivity, David M. Cutler and Ernst R. Berndt, eds.
Chicago: Press, 2001. PDF file Universityof Chicago
"Quality Improvement in Health Care: A Framework for Price and Output Measurement," by Irving Shapiro, Matthew Shapiro, and David Wilcox, American Economic Review Proceedings 89 (May 1999) 333-337. PDF file.
(See CV for earlier publications.)
"How Worker Productivity and Wages Grow with Tenure and Experience: The Firm Perspective." by Andrew Caplin, Minjoon Lee, Søren Leth-Petersen, Johan Sæverud, and Matthew D. Shapiro. July 2022. NBER Working Paper 30342.
"Stimulus Effects of Investment Tax Incentives: Production versus Purchases." by Christopher L. House, Ana-Maria Mocanu, and Matthew D. Shapiro. Revised February 2019. pdf
"The Long-Term-Care Insurance Puzzle: Modeling and Measurement." by John Ameriks, Joseph Briggs, Andrew Caplin, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Christopher Tonetti. Vanguard Research Initiative Working Paper. June 2018. pdf. (Previously circulated as “Late-in-Life Risks and the Under-Insurance Puzzle” November 2016.)
"The Wealth of Wealthholders." by John Ameriks, Andrew Caplin, Minjoon Lee, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Christopher Tonetti. Vanguard Research Initiative Working Paper. December 2014. pdf. Appendices and surveys. VRI Survey 1 Documentation and Tabulations.
"Balance-Sheet Households and Fiscal Stimulus: Lessons from the Payroll Tax Cut and Its Expiration" by Claudia R. Sahm, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Joel Slemrod. revised August 2016. pdf.
"Using Social Media to Measure Labor Market Flows." by Dolan Antenucci, Michael Cafarella, Margaret C. Levenstein, Christopher Re, and Matthew D. Shapiro. April 2013. Revised March 2014. pdf. Real-time predictions of Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance.
"Using the Survey of Plant Capacity to Measure Capital Utilization." by Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Matthew D. Shapiro. U.S. Census Bureau. Center for Economic Studies Discussion Paper 11-18, July 2011. pdf
"The Effects of the Financial Crisis on the Well‐Being of Older Americans: Evidence from the Cognitive Economics Study" by Matthew D. Shapiro, September 2010. PDF file
"Labor Supply: Are Income and Substitution Effects Both :Large or Both Small?" by Miles S. Kimball and Matthew D. Shapiro, updated June 2010. PDF file. Appendices.
"The Retirement Elasticity" by Miles S. Kimball and Matthew D. Shapiro, June 2003. PDF file This paper extends the framework of "Labor Supply: Are Income and Substitution Effects Both :Large or Both Small?" to consider the retirement margin for labor supply and how wealth shocks (e.g., a change in the value of Social Security benefits) affect retirement age.
"Survey Methods in Macroeconomics" Lawrence R. Klein Collegiate Professorship Inaugural Lecture, April 17, 2007.
The Chart That Shows the Financial Peril Facing Federal Workers New York Times opinion, (January 16, 2019).
"Bush Stimulus May Have Only Modest Effect" by Christopher L. House, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Joel Slemrod, Wall Street Journal Online (Jan. 10, 2008)
"Tax cuts aren't economic cure-alls" by Matthew D. Shapiro and Joel Slemrod,
Free Press (Feb. 12, 2001) Detroit
"Economic Stimulant: Sales Tax" by Matthew D. Shapiro,
Times (Dec. 16, 1991) New York
Econ 495, Seminar in economics (honors)
Econ 612, Advanced macroeconomics
American Economic Journal: Economic Policy
Working Papers are
available through the National
Institute for Social Research
Survey Research Center
Michigan Research Data Center (RDC)
Advisory Committee (FESAC), Statement
on Data Synchronization, December 12, 2014
American Economic Association | AEA Committee on Statistics
US Monetary Policy Forum