India: Facts and Figures on Development
Thursday, March 30, 2006 Permanent link to this post
I feel like charts and numbers today. I have been following India's development progress for a while and want to draw attention to some macro level data that illustrate the direction and magnitude of this progress. All the data used in this post are public and you can find them at the India page of the CIA World Factbook. You can also find previous years data and a lot many charts at the IndexMundi Country Facts website. I have borrowed the charts from there - though they are all based on public information. All the text, interpretation and analysis is original.
Okay - now that I have shown all the charts and data that I wanted to - the question is - what is the message? Well - the message is simple. India, in spite of all the chaos and problems, is developing consistently and rapidly. It might seem like a redundant message with all the media attention on India these days - but I feel that true measures of a country's development are not economic but social. India's economic growth is well known - but there is a social side to development as well and I am very happy and reassured by the strides made by India in this field over the years. There is still a long way to go but at least the trend is positive, consistently positive, consistently and uniformly positive. The future looks bright from where I am standing!
- Population Growth: Lets start with something broad and basic - Population. India's large population and predictions for India crossing China as world's most populous country by 2025 or something is well known. I agree with the assertion that India *does* have a population problem and India's large population is an impediment to growth and higher standards of living. Now - the good news. India is seeing significant improvement in population growth rates - look at the chart below:
Chart 1: India's Annual Population Growth Rates, Year 2000 - 2005.
The chart shows *consistent* and reasonably rapid reduction in India's population growth rates. Its almost constant rate of change: reduction by 0.04% points per year. Keep going at this rate and soon India will have annual growth rates of less than 1% - very manageable! Though India's growth rate is still significantly higher than that of China (0.58% in 2005), it should be remembered that India is reducing her population growth rate in a peaceful, democratic way without any coercion. - Birth Rates: Just so that its clear - India's population growth rate is not coming down because of epidemics and illnesses! India's birth rates are declining - again consistently and significantly. Here is the graph to prove it:
Chart 2: India's Birth Rate (No of births per 1000 population), Year 2000 - 2006
What makes me happy is not the decline - but the persistent and consistent decline. Again - almost at a uniform rate. This shows that this is a *systemic* phenomenon and not the result of some one-off policy, epidemic, whatever. - Fertility Rate: As can be expected, the decline in birth rate shown above is because of women in India are having less number of babies. There is a special point here - look at the fertility rate trend below:
Chart 3: India's Fertility Rate, Year 2000 - 2005
Here is the point: to me, year 2002 is a landmark year. For the first time in India's history, fetility rate (defined as number of babies for every mother) fell below 3 in 2002. Anybody familiar with India's middle class ethos would understand how big a deal it is. Not long ago the ideal family size used to be 5 0r 6 persons (parents and 3 or 4 children). Now, the average family size is less than 5. That means the *ideal* family size is moving towards nuclear families of parents and two kids - which BTW is the replacement level!! Fertility rates have continued to fall in the same consistent manner as other charts above - and its so very encouraging! - Infant Mortality Rates: So the population growth rate is coming down and people are having less kids - but what about standard of living? Here is the answer - Infant mortality rate (how many kids out of every 1000 die by the age of 5) in India has, again, been declining consistently over the years. This indicates an improving healthcare system and improving availability of medicines and nutrition.
Chart 4: India's Infant Mortality Rate, Year 2000 - 2005
Not that 56 kids out of every 1000 dying by the age of 5 is no tragedy - it is and its deplorable. But - there is a ray of light. Its coming down and coming down every year. For a country as large and diverse as India, being able to maintain a secular improving trend in all the demographic parameters is commendable. - Life Expectancy: The last chart - what is happening to overall standard of living of people in India. One of the broadest standard of living measure is the life expectancy - the average expected lifespan of an Indian. Here is the data:
Chart 5: India's Life Expectancy, Year 2000 - 2005
Same story - the average age to which an Indian can expect to live is increasing every year. The increase is consistent and almost uniform. We can broadly conclude that the standard of living in India is improving - consistently.
Okay - now that I have shown all the charts and data that I wanted to - the question is - what is the message? Well - the message is simple. India, in spite of all the chaos and problems, is developing consistently and rapidly. It might seem like a redundant message with all the media attention on India these days - but I feel that true measures of a country's development are not economic but social. India's economic growth is well known - but there is a social side to development as well and I am very happy and reassured by the strides made by India in this field over the years. There is still a long way to go but at least the trend is positive, consistently positive, consistently and uniformly positive. The future looks bright from where I am standing!
Therer are 2 Comments. Post a Comment
Where did you get your data from? It looks too good to be true though. Are there any private survey companies that publish non-biased data.
Comment posted by 
: 30 July, 2008 14:34
: 30 July, 2008 14:34
If it is true what you are showing here then it is very dangerous.
Population is a power.....see china now they are using their population power in right direction and growing.
With our closeness to west indian girls are refusing to become mother....after 50 years ....25% of Indian women will reject the idea of becoming mother and facing the labour pain.
Then we will invest more to make them agree that they should become mother.
Actually our mind works only that much what our western teachers teach us or what we study in western books.
I hope you will start researching the things from this point of view now and will come out from the small well of western thinking pattern where you are now.
if you need any further assiatance please contact me on yunuskashif@rediffmail.com
Population is a power.....see china now they are using their population power in right direction and growing.
With our closeness to west indian girls are refusing to become mother....after 50 years ....25% of Indian women will reject the idea of becoming mother and facing the labour pain.
Then we will invest more to make them agree that they should become mother.
Actually our mind works only that much what our western teachers teach us or what we study in western books.
I hope you will start researching the things from this point of view now and will come out from the small well of western thinking pattern where you are now.
if you need any further assiatance please contact me on yunuskashif@rediffmail.com
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