Idle ramblings of a wandering mind...

Finally it is here - three years in the making - it will make its debut on May 16th 2008. What is it you ask? It is the book that is destined to become a bestseller (and I know 'cause I have read it :-) - check out the Amazon page of The New Age of Innovation by Prof C K Prahalad and Prof M S Krishnan.

I have seen this book take shape for more than three years now. Prof Krishnan is of course my PhD advisor and I had the opportunity to do some background research for the book for him. This also meant that I could read all the work-in-progress manuscripts. At the end of this process, now that the book is finished and about to be launched, I have this immense sense of pride that comes from a job well done. Prof Prahalad and Prof Krishnan have achieved the holy grail of business books in this one - marry the top level vision with an implementable roadmap. This book is not just about the lofty ideas and strategic foresight (which it has in plenty, as you would expect of any book with Prahalad on the cover), it also goes deep in IT and Operations issues of how to implement the strategy - how to get the value and not just talk about it.

The book is available for pre-order on Amazon for 20 bucks. Run and reserve your copy. Now!

Labels: Books, Krishnan, Prahalad

   

As the title indicates - my love/hate relationship with LaTeX continues. For the uninitiated - LaTeX is a document preparation system that relies on explicit commands rather than the WYSIWYG interface of word-processors like MS-Word. More about LaTeX is available here. I have written many times about LaTeX - Click Here for my previous LaTeX related posts.

After really trying very hard to use LaTeX for all my writing needs, I had to give up because using LaTeX for day to day activities was getting too tedious - and many software I need for my writing (like EndNotes for reference management) are not compatible with LaTeX. Well - so I thought! Recently, I had to make a few documents for my job search - and I was just not satisfied with the quality of the output I got with MS-Word. I converted the document into LaTeX - and voila! the documents came out just so much better. Here is the proof: click here for the LaTeX document - and ask yourself if you could get the same look and feel in MS-Word! I could not.

So here is my compromise status - when I need to create documents where quality is most important - I am using LaTeX; and when I need to make documents quickly and use specialized software like EndNotes - I am going to use MS-Word. Now - the template you use has a tremendous impact on the quality of LaTeX documents - and I have had to spend a lot of time tweaking my LaTeX templates to get them just right for the Letter page size most commonly used in US. If you are looking for a decent LaTeX template - look not further - here is the LaTeX file for the document linked above. This file will create one inch margins on all sides for a Latter size paper. Note that this template is made for using "pdflatex" command that directly makes .pdf files.

I had once made a small button/icon for supporting LaTeX on my website. Please feel free to copy it and use it on your site if you find it useful:



On the subject of buttons - here is one for the statistical system R - again - feel free to use it on your website:

Labels: LaTeX

   

I am writing this from the lobby of the good but not "fairmont good" - Queen Elizabeth Hotel in Montreal, Canada - the venue for ICIS 2007. I presented my paper on Information Sharing and Service Oriented Architecture (SOA) use in supply chains. The paper was received very well - I had more than 60 people in attendance - standing room only. Here is the paper's abstract. Full paper is available from the conference proceedings - if you want the full paper but can't find the proceedings - drop a comment/email and I will send you one. The paper was nominated for the best paper award at ICIS.

SOA and Information Sharing in Supply Chain: “How” Information is Shared Matters!

This also happens to be the year that I am in the job market - that means a lot of interviews. So this was a busy conference - busy but successful.

Labels: Conference Presentations, Information Sharing, Information Systems, Research, SOA, Supply Chain

   

My research paper "Impact of SOA Use on Performance Outcomes of Information Sharing in Supply Chain" has been accepted for the INFORMS CIST - Conference on Information Systems and Technology 2007. This would be my second visit to CIST. I love this conference for its open, discussion oriented format and great participation. This will be my fourth research conference presentation this year (after Academy, AMCIS and ICIS) - the year is turning out rather well.

Labels: Conference Presentations, Research

   

I have just came back from AMCIS 2007 - Americas Conference on Information Systems. The conference was held at the beautiful Keystone, Colorado. I presented my preliminary paper on Prosper.com titled - "Bank of One: Empirical Analysis of Peer to Peer Financial Marketplace". The presentation was received very well. I even received an invitation to submit it to a very good journal - which is quite nice. Several attendees asked me for a copy of my presentation - so here is a PDF copy of my AMCIS 2007 presentation on Prosper.com. The paper itself is available through AMCIS Proceedings or you can leave a comment on this post with your email and I would be happy to send you a copy of the paper.

Update:
I received several appreciate emails about the presentation file posted above. The post was linked in several blogs including Tom's excellent blog: Prosper Lending Review - Thanks Tom.

Labels: Conference Presentations, Prosper, Research

   

Have Airlines Lost Their Mind?

I have heard stories of Airlines doing some really crazy pricing. However - I had never came across on such masterpiece face to face - till this week.

I was looking for flights from Detroit to Tulsa, OK. I was not sure of my return date so I tried looking for one-way flights. Horror of horrors - this is what I find. Look at the screenshots below. The first screenshot is for a return flight - leaving May 10th and returning May 20th. The second screenshot is a one way journey (exactly same as the first half of the return journey).

Screenshot 1: Return Flight, Price: $401



Screenshot 2: One way flight, Price: $730


Note that the two flights use exactly the same setup for the common part - same flight no. So - at any rate, the return flight should be expensive than the one way - its the same flight plus some more. However, the reality is completely upside down. The on way ticket is almost double in price than the return ticket that has the one way ticket embedded in it. One might as well buy the return ticket and then throw away the return part of the ticket.

I can't think of any justification for it - it just does not make sense. Airline industry it seems uses all kinds of sophisticated revenue management systems, yield management systems etc etc. - and after than if they are coming up with this amazingly crazy pricing then something is surely wrong somewhere.

PS> Northwest has been bleeding money past few years and it under bankruptcy now. See any lconnections??

Labels: Airlines, US

   

Recently one of the readers of this blog - Akash, posed this question about Prosper.com:

Great blog. I am trying to understand the p2p lending biz models out there, such as prosper and zopa. What I am struggling with how these guys make money:

- looking at the public data, these sites take on average 1% origination fee from borrower, and 0.5% from lenders (on outstanding loan), then it would appear that they are not making a lot of money even on a loan volumes of $1 Billion ($15M in revenue)
- when will these companies make money? their expenses even running an internet outfit will be high
- they have raised over $20M in VC money;

Questions:

- what are investors seeing that I am not able to grasp? (assuming they will get traction)
- will they be able to monetize their loans in the secondary market somehow

Here are my thoughts on the subject:

Current Revenue and Cost Streams for Prosper
I agree that on the current scale of operation, Prosper is not making too much money. However - look at the other side - the business model is risk free - once the loan has originated, the future revenue stream (apart from defaults) is guaranteed. The cost elements of the business are very low - running the site costs only little, they do not have too many employees (double figures only), Prosper is not doing any paid marketing and once the platform is established, they can outsource most of the routine work. With sustained growth for a few years - they will have enough scale to make decent money with very little downside.

My sense is that their current cash burnout rate is quite low - so their $50 million venture funding should go a long way. Even if they need extra cash, they have a positive cash flow in future with all the loan repayments - so they shouldn't have problem raising either secureed debt or the next round of venture financing.

Future Revenue Streams
I imagine that once they have established their current business model, they will start cross-selling other financial products. Lender's insurance, database mining, prosper security backed credit cards, syncing your prosper account with your paypal account... secondary trading in Prosper loans... the possibilities are endless. Oh yes - Prosper Loan insurance - insurance than lenders can buy that will protect them against loan default - this can be a pretty good business - I will buy it, especially after suffering through the pain of a couple of defaults!!

Secondary Trading of Prosper Loans
As far as secondary trading in Prosper loans is concerned - I hope Prosper introduces something similar soon. Currently there is no "exit" for Prosper lenders - you got to wait 36 months for your payments to slowly trickle in. What if you need some cash out? Right now the only good way is for you to actually borrow in Prosper for a similar amount that you have lent out. I am not sure whether anybody has really tried it as an exit strategy - although there are several lenders which try to use it as an arbitrage strategy. Creating a secondary market is not difficult at all - in fact it will be remarkably similar to the current platform. A current lender can put a portfolio of loans up for auction and other lenders can bid for it. Once the auction clears - the documentation can get shifted to the new owners of the loan. Easy! This secondary market will bring liquidity to Prosper loans and encourage more lenders to participate as they will always have an opportunity to exit the market.

Labels: Prosper

   

One of the ways I decide what to post about is by looking at what search terms browsers are looking for while reaching my blog. This is quite easily accomplished by using traffic tracking services like sitemeter or mybloglog (I use both). Recently many visitors came to my blog looking for information about Information Systems research conferences. So - here is an attempt to provide some commonly needed information about Information Systems research conferences. This includes large conferences that look at business application of Information Technologies/Systems. This consolidated information would be useful for starting PhD students in MIS/IS/IT area. Disclaimer: This is by no means an exhaustive list and the acceptance rates mentioned are approximate.

Starting off there are two kinds of research gatherings - those that publish full papers in proceedings and those that don't. The difference is important to realize. Since you can publish a paper only once, if the paper is published in its full form in a conference proceeding then you can not publish the paper in a journal without significant revision. On the other hand, conferences that do not publish proceedings or only publish a abstract of the paper in their proceeding - then you are free to publish the same paper later in a journal. Conferences of this type are often called a workshop.

ICIS - International Conference on Information Systems (Link to ICIS 2007):
Reputation: Tier 1
Acceptance Rate: 12-15%
Proceedings: Full Paper

ICIS is the most prominent research conference in IS research area. Its a large gathering with a very international profile. I have been to last two ICIS (Vegas and Milwaukee) and both have been very positive experiences. The papers are of good quality, attendance in paper sessions is quite decent and most active researchers in IS are usually there. ICIS also hosts job interviews for IS faculty positions. ICIS 2007 is in Montreal, Canada. ICIS publishes full proceedings and is very very selective. Its acceptance rates in past years have been around 12-15% - which is very low for a conference - its quite difficult to get a paper accepted at ICIS.

AMCIS - Americas Conference on Information Systems (Link to AMCIS 2007):
Reputation: Tier 3
Acceptance Rate: ~50%
Proceedings: Full Paper, Research-in-Progress

AMCIS is a really large gathering of IS researchers - but mostly has participation from US. The high acceptance rate means that its easy to get your paper accepted here - but it also means that the average quality of paper is not very good. Attendance in paper sessions is usually low. However - I recommend going to this conference as you get to know a lot of IS researchers and some Universities hold their hiring interviews at AMCIS.

HICSS - Hawaii International Conference on Systems Sciences (Link to HICSS 2008):
Reputation: Tier 3
Acceptance Rate: ~50%
Proceedings: Full Paper

HICSS is an expensive conference to go to - Hawaii in January! Its a great vacation if you stay for a couple of days after the conference - however - the conference itself nothing too great. Good thing is that the atmosphere is quite casual (think shorts and printed shirts) and stress free; bad thing is that attendance levels are low (what else can be expected - when you are in Hawaii in Jan). Since the conference is so expensive to attend, number of submissions are lower - so a 50% acceptance is not bad. One really bright part of the conference is the Competitive Strategy, Economics and IS mini-track organized by three leading lights of IS research - Rob Kauffman, Eric Clemons and Rajiv Dewan. This track has low acceptance, really good papers and very good participation.

WISE - Workshop on Information Systems and Economics (Link to WISE 2006):
Reputation: Tier 2
Acceptance Rate: ~30% (guesstimate)
Proceedings: No Proceedings

For researchers studying Information Economics or Business Value of IT, this is THE place to be. Its a two day workshop where all the big guns get together and have a really good critical discussion. Its a short, interactive and very valuable workshop. This also happens to be my first ever research conference - so I like it even better. You only submit a five page extended abstract to WISE - so you can submit in-progress research as well - which is great. This also has one of the last deadlines (early Sept) - so you can submit your summer work here - good timing. WISE is one of the many workshops that happen just before ICIS (pre-ICIS workshops) - and it is usually very close to ICIS location - so you can combine the two visits.

Academy of Management - OCIS Division (Link to AoM-2007):
Reputation: Tier 3
Acceptance Rate: ~50%
Proceedings: Abstracts and Extended Abstracts

Academy is the biggest gathering of all - all management divisions are there. Information Systems researcher usually find place in the OCIS division. I haven't been to this conference as yet - so no first hand information - I am scheduled to go this year - so I will know more soon. The acceptance rates are reasonable/easy and it only publishes abstracts or extended abstracts - so works well for in-progress research papers.

CIST - INFORMS Conference on Information Systems and Technology (Link to CIST 2007):
Reputation: Tier 2
Acceptance Rate: ~30% (guesstimate)
Proceedings: No Proceedings

The annual INFORMS conference is a big deal (and a big gathering) for Operations researchers. As part of the INFORMS conference, IS researchers organize the two day WISE-like event called CIST. Difference is that you need to submit a full paper for CIST. The level of discussion and participation is same as WISE. A very good conference to present your research before you submit it to a journal, especially for research connected with operations. CIST also has some practitioner participation.

WITS - Workshop on Information Technology and Systems (Link to WITS 2007):
Reputation: Tier 2
Acceptance Rate: ~30% (guesstimate)
Proceedings: No Proceedings

WITS is another pre-ICIS workshop - but its focus is more technical than WISE. Design science researchers find this particularly attractive. My research usually does not fall under the WITS umbrella - I have heard good things about it though.

Alright - that finishes my top of the mind info in research conferences/workshops in Information Systems. Hope somebody finds this useful. Feel free to add to this info by posting comments.

Updates:

• Andrea has this very informative blog about pre-ICIS workshops. Click here for Andrea's blog.
• Prof Don Harter at Syracuse has maintained a page on IS Conferences with links to past conferences. Link to Don's Conferences Page.
  

Labels: Conference Presentations, Information Systems, Research

   

H-1B Visas: Problems All Around
Its old news that this year the annual quota for H-1B visas filled twice over in just two days (Link to CNN story). This has given rise to all kinds of discussion on whether H-1B cap should be raised; whether H-1B should even exist and what effect does H-1B has on wage levels in US. There is a bipartisan bill on table in congress that is expected to make matters worse.

Among all the noise, there is one group of people who are finding themselves in the middle of the crossfire - International students in US Universities. The H-1B visas are no longer available for students who will graduate at the end of the current academic year. Most of them have job offers with US companies, provided that they are get their H-1B visa. This really is a double whammy for them - first of all - employment opportunities for international students are severely limited in US. Here in Ross School of Business, University of Michigan, during the past internship season for the MBA class of 2008, only 255 of the total 490 job listings accepted applications from international students. On top of that, even these jobs are in jeopardy because of visa restrictions. Just to be sure - these are students from one of the top MBA programs in the world and any country/company should welcome them with open arms as they will script the future of the business world tomorrow - and here they are rebuffed and rejected.

Increasingly US universities are looking abroad to get qualified students. In most top MBA programs, international students make up more than one third of the student body. These students pay higher out of state tuition and take huge loans (more than $120K) and are willing to legally pay taxes and contribute to the US society and economy - there is no reason to not allow them to work and prosper in US.

Update: International PhD students that take up a job with a US University are not counted as part of the usual H-1B limit. This is good news for all aspiring faculty members like me! (More information available at Carnegie Mellon's excellent page on the subject.)

US Competitiveness: Auto Industry

Already many people including Bill Gates and Harvard Crimson have raised their voices. Bloggers have even suggested that restricting companies from hiring foreign workers will actually lead them to go to the source of talent and outsource more work. In the middle of these, New York Times has written an excellent piece on increasing skill levels of outsourcing firms in India. Combine this with excellent engineering innovation like the sub-$2,500 car I mentioned in my last post - and the indicators are not good for long term competitiveness of the US economy.

If someone really needs some hard data after all this, here are the latest automobile sales figures for US market for March 2007 (market share means share among the producers mentions, not total market share, sales mean unit sales not dollar sales). Look at how the Detroit Three are doing against the Asian Three:

Since I live in Michigan, the auto industry is always top of the mind - and the figures above are so disappointing for any true fan of Detroit's auto history. Not only are GM, Ford and Chrysler losing market share, they are doing worse even in their supposedly strong area - trucks and SUVs. In cars its not even a competition anymore - its a rout! Toyota is already the largest car maker in US and is third if we include both cars and trucks. With gas prices and emission requirements pushing the market towards smaller and more efficient Toyotas and Hondas, its only a matter of time before Toyota and Honda take the leadership position in US auto market from GM and Ford.

Toyota and Honda are both excellent value with forward PE in 13.50 range. I own Honda as I am slightly concerned with Toyota's ability to sustain growth with the large base that it has. Plus I expect Honda to take back the green leadership that it seems to have lost to Toyota Prius.

Labels: Auto, Immigration, India, US

   

I am a huge fan of LaTeX (especially on Emacs). I love the output generated by LaTeX and I would have been so happy continuing to write my research papers and dissertation in LaTeX - but alas - that is not to be. First of all, Information Systems research conferences ask for submission in MS-Word format - no exception. Secondly, now that I am handling large numbers of references and a huge pdf document library for my dissertation, I can not escape using EndNote for managing references - and EndNote does not support LaTeX.

So finally, I am giving up on LaTeX and shifting all my writing to MS-Word. I would continue to keep my LaTeX skills updated though - with the hope that once I graduate and (hopefully) become a faculty - I will perhaps be able to migrate back to LaTeX.

Sidenote: EndNote is amazing! I recommend EndNote to all researchers and especially doctoral students who are building their research paper library. It has helped my research productivity big time.

Labels: EndNote, LaTeX, Research