Eyeing U.S. Missile Defense, Russia Wants Less Offense

November 15, 2000

By PATRICK E. TYLER

MOSCOW, Nov. 14   Unwilling to wait for a declared winner in the
American presidential race, the Kremlin has mounted a diplomatic
offensive to advertise its desire to make deep cuts in the nuclear
arsenals of Russia and the United States as soon as possible after
a new president takes office.

 With a statement directed at Washington by President Vladimir V.
Putin on Monday, followed by presentations today by a senior
military commander and a top foreign ministry official, the Russian
leadership chose this week of electoral chaos in the United States
to make its case.

 No matter who wins the election, the Russians said, Moscow is
eager to move swiftly to eliminate the cost of maintaining large
strategic nuclear forces a decade after the end of the cold war.

 "What counts most now is that Russia and the United States start
moving jointly or along parallel courses toward radically lowered
ceilings on nuclear warheads without any holdups," Mr. Putin said
before leaving for Mongolia and then Brunei for a summit meeting of
Asian and Pacific leaders. 

 While in Brunei, Mr. Putin and President Clinton will meet for the
last scheduled time before Mr. Clinton leaves office.

 Russian officials hinted that Moscow might be ready to negotiate
amendments to a treaty banning missile defenses, something
Washington wants, if cuts in offensive weapons are deep enough.

 The commander of Russia's strategic rocket forces, Gen. Vladimir
N. Yakolev, warned Monday that Russia would find it "very
difficult" to stop the political momentum in the United States for
building a national missile shield to defend against attacks by
rogue states and accidental launchings. Therefore, he said, Russia
should make a new deal with Washington: trading any American
buildup in missile defenses for deeper cuts   perhaps deeper than
Russia's cuts   in offensive weapons.

 The reason for the pressing Russian initiative, say analysts here
and in the United States, has more to do with Moscow's domestic
economic and security concerns than with American politics.

 Saddled with an unfinished military campaign in Chechnya and a
general deterioration of Russian conventional forces that may have
contributed to the disaster that sank the nuclear submarine Kursk
in August, Mr. Putin is pressing his military commanders to slash
the still bloated Russian armed forces by a third or more. His goal
is to build a smaller and more capable fighting force to defend
Russia against threats of Islamic extremism in Central Asia and
ethnic tensions loosed by the collapse of the Soviet Union.

 To finance the modernization of Russia's conventional armed
forces, Mr. Putin would like to avoid the large expenditures
necessary to maintain several thousand strategic nuclear weapons
and their delivery systems.

 "Certainly we would like to save money on weapons that are never
supposed to be used," said Aleksei G. Arbatov, a member of the
defense committee of the Russian Parliament. 

 "Nuclear weapons are virtual weapons, designed and deployed never
to be used," he said in an interview, "and this is the best area to
seek economy while using our available resources for peacekeeping,
or for countering ethnic or religious extremists and the
destabilization which follows them."

 In his statement on Monday, Mr. Putin said Russia was prepared "to
consider even lower levels" than the 1,500 warheads presented by
its negotiators in Geneva earlier this year at the outset of
negotiations for a Start III agreement. Some officials said Mr.
Putin would like to cut strategic arsenals to 1,000 weapons each.

 Such a cut would require the incoming American president to issue
a new directive to the Joint Chiefs of Staff to further reduce the
list of targets in the highly classified plans for defending the
United States in a nuclear conflict. Those war plans set a floor of
2,500 nuclear weapons necessary to cover all targets in current war
plans.

 Both presidential contenders have given Russia some hope that a
compromise can be reached.

 In May, Gov. George W. Bush declared that Russia "is no longer our
enemy" and said that if elected he would order the Pentagon to
conduct a new assessment "of our nuclear force posture" with a goal
of significant further reductions, while also moving forward with a
national missile shield even if Russia refused to amend the
Antiballistic Missile Treaty of 1972, which prohibits the
deployment of nationwide missile defenses.

 If elected, Vice President Al Gore has said he would seek to
negotiate with Russia on amendments to the antimissile treaty to
allow deployment of missile defenses, while also seeking further
reductions in offensive weapons.

 Ivo H. Daalder, an arms control expert at the Brookings
Institution in Washington, said Mr. Bush's declaration demonstrated
to the Russians that both candidates held out the promise of
supporting much deeper cuts in the nuclear arsenals. Mr. Bush would
support deep cuts while ignoring Russian concerns about missile
defenses, thus freeing the Russians to take other steps to counter
American defenses. But the net result would be fewer offensive
weapons.

 "The fact that the Republicans were the ones to break through the
wall when it comes to going lower than 2,500 weapons provides the
underpinnings" for a bipartisan American consensus to reduce
offensive weapons, Mr. Daalder said.

 Russia and the United States signed the Start II agreement in
1993, calling for cutting the superpower nuclear arensals in half  
to 3,000 to 3,500 weapons each   and eliminating Russia's force of
large multiple- warhead missiles.

 But the struggle to win full approval for the treaty has carried
over to this year. The Senate approved the treaty in 1996, but the
Russian Parliament, dominated by Communist members, objected to its
terms until April. It was approved after the election of a
non-Communist majority. 

Copyright 2000 The New York Times Company