Useful Legacy of Nuclear Treaty: Global Earphones

By WILLIAM J. BROAD

 

Though the Senate voted two years ago to reject a treaty that bans
nuclear testing, one of its provisions is alive and thriving: the
global network of sensors meant to listen for clandestine nuclear
blasts.

 Though still under construction, the International Monitoring
System is already yielding a wealth of science spinoffs, detecting
violent winds, volcanic eruptions and the crash of meteoroids from
outer space.

 "It's a vast new tool," said Hank Bass, director of the National
Center for Physical Acoustics, based at the University of
Mississippi. "For the first time, we'll have a global system of
microphones listening to the atmosphere of the planet."

 The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty calls for 90 countries to be
host to a network of 321 stations whose sensors monitor the land,
sea and air for faint vibrations and other telltale signs of
nuclear blasts. More than 100 stations are now relaying data by
satellite and cable to Vienna, where 220 people work at the
system's headquarters.

 Despite the Senate rebuff in 1999, the United States is a major
backer of the monitoring system. It pays about a quarter of the
total costs, and United States technical and scientific support is
regarded as crucial to the network's success.

 Earlier this year, some treaty opponents tried to halt the
financial aid, saying the ban's goals were illusory or contrary to
American interests. But its backers fought back vigorously, led in
part by Senator James M. Jeffords of Vermont, whose defection from
the Republican Party put Democrats in control of the Senate earlier
this month. Battles over the monitoring system continue in
Washington, and it is unclear if American support will continue.

 Experts on both sides say the existence of an effective monitoring
system, which its proponents see as central to treaty policing,
would increase the chances that the accord might one day be
revived.

 In all, the surveillance system is to have 170 stations that
detect underground shock waves, 11 that track undersea explosions,
80 that sniff the air for telltale radioactivity and 60 that listen
for revealing sounds in the atmosphere, including winds and shock
waves.

 Dr. Gerardo Suarez, a geophysicist from Mexico who directs the
International Monitoring System in Vienna, said the emerging
network was starting to excite experts far beyond the world of arms
control. "The scientific community is awakening to the enormous
possibilities," he said in an interview.

 Interested groups, he said, include the World Meteorological
Organization, which wants wind data for global weather forecasting,
and the World Health Organization, which wants to track
radioactivity in the atmosphere.

 "It's a tremendous challenge," Dr. Suarez said of building the
global network. "There's never been anything like it. We have
stations from the Arctic to Antarctica."

 New additions to the surveillance system include ground-based
microphones that listen to the air for low- frequency sounds far
below the range of human hearing. Dr. Douglas Christy, head of the
acoustic group in Vienna, said that by the end of the year some 20
of the 60 sound stations will be operational.

 "Things are moving along very rapidly," he said. "It's hectic. But
we're happy with it."

 On April 23, the fledgling system detected a speeding meteoroid
that crashed into the atmosphere over the Pacific, where it
produced a blast nearly as powerful as the atomic bomb dropped on
Hiroshima.

 In the past, such explosions often escaped notice because they
usually occur over the sea or uninhabited lands. The new
information will help scientists calculate how often these strikes
occur and the odds of "doomsday rocks" hitting the planet.

 Today, the International Monitoring System and its member states
are keeping the data private among themselves until global
agreements can be made for its wider release, Dr. Suarez said. A
few nations, he said, fear that improper analysis of the data might
confuse small explosions in the mining or construction industries
with clandestine nuclear blasts.

 Preliminary work on the monitoring system began in late 1996 after
the treaty was opened for signature and has been accelerating ever
since. In the United States, the Defense Department does much of
the work.

 Treaty opponents have argued that small blasts can elude the
monitoring system and that America might one day need to test its
old nuclear arms or design new ones.

 When the Senate in 1999 rejected the treaty, conservative
Republicans tried, but failed, to cut the monitoring funds as well.

 Early this year, just after President Bush took office, they
launched a new drive. On March 12, Senator Jesse Helms, the North
Carolina Republican who then was chairman of the Foreign Relations
Committee, wrote the State Department to urge that the United
States remove its signature from the test-ban treaty and "terminate
funding" for its organizations, including the network of sensors.

 On April 4, 10 Senate Republicans, including Mr. Helms and Trent
Lott of Mississippi, then majority leader, made the same argument
to Donald H. Rumsfeld, the defense secretary. "We urge you," they
wrote, "to terminate Defense Department efforts to implement the
treaty."

 Treaty opponents call support for the system — or any provision or
organization called for in the treaty — a surrogate for backing the
treaty itself, which is why they want the monitoring effort halted.

 Frank J. Gaffney Jr., a former Pentagon official who opposes the
pact, said in an interview that the monitoring is "a backdoor way
to get us" into the treaty. Mr. Gaffney, who directs the Center for
Security Policy, a private group in Washington, said establishing
the monitoring system "creates a rubric in which a future
administration might endorse the treaty."

 Senator Jeffords, a longtime treaty supporter, fought back on
April 6, urging Secretary of State Colin L. Powell to persevere.
"We must avoid any weakening of our commitment to international
nuclear test monitoring," he wrote in a letter with Senator Lincoln
Chafee, a moderate Republican from Rhode Island.

 A few weeks later, on May 10, Secretary Powell told Congress that
the Bush administration would seek $20 million for the test-ban
work next year. That figure is what the program office in Vienna
had requested.

 Secretary Powell is one of the few officials in the Bush
administration to have supported the Senate's approval of the
treaty, which he did in January 1998 along with three other former
chairmen of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

 Mr. Jeffords, in announcing his departure from Republican ranks on
May 24, made no mention of the test ban or its monitoring. But
aides said the topic was one of many where he foresaw growing
disagreements with the Bush administration and Senate leaders.

 Daryl Kimball, executive director of the Coalition to Reduce
Nuclear Dangers, a private group in Washington, said the Senate's
shift into Democratic hands will aid the monitoring and "make life
far more difficult for the Dr. Strangelove caucus."

 If the United States and the 159 other nations of the treaty
organization maintain their contributions, construction of the
monitoring system could be completed by late 2005, Dr. Suarez said.
That is somewhat behind the schedule envisioned a few years ago.

 By late this year, he said, his team will have finished surveying
90 percent of the proposed station sites around the world, many of
which lie in remote or inhospitable regions.

 In the United States, despite the political clash over monitoring,
26 of 37 planned stations have already been built, a Bush
administration official said.

 The White House might want to pull out of the monitoring program
after it finishes its reviews of nuclear policy, the official
added. But the president and his aides, though largely treaty
opponents, will probably choose to avoid that step and the likely
uproar.

 "The politics are really hairy," the official said. "They may want
to let it limp along because of its high political profile." 

Copyright 2001 The New York Times Company