The University of Michigan                                                                          Professor Raymond Tanter
Political Science 498                                                                                   Tuesday- Thursday: 11-Noon Winter 1998                                                                                               ANGELL HALL AUD C 

Assistants:  Ali Ahmad                                       aia@umich.edu
                       Michael Janson                               mjanson@umich.edu 
                       Ravindra Kharmai                         kharmair@umich.edu
                       Anna Song                                        songav@umich.edu
                       Liat Weingart                                   liatw@umich.edu

Arab-Israeli Conflict

Just as the Cold War ended, the Arab-Israeli conflict is closing. Hence, the course does not treat the conflict as "eternal."  Rather, this course discusses the historical background of the Arab-Zionist dispute, final status issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, outstanding questions in the Israel-Syria peace process, links between the Arab-Israel zone and the Gulf, and the expanding role of religion in the Middle East. Strife between Islamists and secular actors is at the core of new conflicts in the area. As Muslim and Jewish ideologues are increasingly at odds with secular parties in Arab entities and in Israel, these zealots are a fit subject for study.

Lectures address the political history of the conflict from the perspective of theoretical social science propositions. Discussion sections highlight this history by offering  students a forum for debating the relationship between theoretical ideas and historical events.  In addition, the sections provide a venue for conducting role-playing exercises of historical events in the region.

A ps498 computer conference (ps-498-w98) provides students a forum for discussing current issues in the peace process. See COW help page (on the homepage) for instructions on how to subscribe and use COW. Participation in COW is a course requirement. 

Core ideas include crisis as an opportunity for diplomacy; bargaining and negotiation strategies; global, regional, and domestic factors that explain conflict and cooperation; security dilemmas; deterrence failure; overestimation of threat; miscalculated escalation; loss of control as a bargaining tactic; preemption; lowest common denominator consensus decision-making; impact of war on the peace process; alliance politics; force and diplomacy; impact of anomic violence on the peace process; external threats and group cohesion; the effect of religious extremism on the peace process; cognitive screens and threat perception.

Consider the Arab-Israeli conflict as a series of evolving, terminating, and interrelated disputes: European governments against both Arabs and Zionist Jews; Arabs and Zionists against each other; Arab traditionalists versus Arab nationalists; radical Arab states and non-state political actors against Israel; Islamic, non-Arab Iran versus Arab States; secular Turkey with a large Muslim population aligned with Israel against Syria and Iraq; great power competition for regional clients; great power cooperation in the peace process; secular Jews versus religious radical Jews; secular Arab nationalists versus Islamists. The emphasis on the multiplicity of disputes assumes that there is no singular key to peace.
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GRADING:
Grade weights are 35% for a midterm, 35% for a final research paper (20 pages text MAXIMUM, using internet sources and Turabian Style Guide), 15% for a COW, and 15% for discussion section.

ALL STUDENTS MUST HAVE AN EMAIL ACCOUNT!
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BOOKS:

Bickerton, Ian and Carla Klausner. A CONCISE HISTORY OF THE ARAB-
ISRAELI CONFLICT. Englewood Cliffs New Jersey: Prentice Hall, third edition, paperback.

Congressional Quarterly Inc. THE MIDDLE EAST. Eighth Edition, Washington, DC., 1995, paperback.

Fuller, Graham and Ian Lesser, A SENSE OF SIEGE: THE GEOPOLITICS OF ISLAM AND THE WEST. Boulder: Westview Press, 1995, paperback.

Tanter, Raymond.  ROGUE REGIMES:  TERRORISM AND PROLIFERATION.  New York:  St. Martin's Press, 1998.

Recommended (but not required):
Coursepack available at Ulrich's -- Recommended.

Lesser, Ian and Ashley Tellis.  STRATEGIC EXPOSURE:  PROLIFERATION AROUND THE MEDITERRANEAN.  Santa Monica:  Rand, 1996.

RESEARCH & COMPUTER ASSISTANCE SITES
Arab-Israeli Conflict Research Sites
How to Create a Personal or Group Homepage
A Beginner's Guide to HTML
Searching For How-to Documentation from the Information Technology Division
Accessing your IFS directory (your home directory) on a MAC
Contacting an ITD Consultant for Help

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A note about assignments and schedule:  Text in UPPERCASE denotes theoretical concepts.  Text in Title Case denotes historical illustration of these concepts.

DATES:

January 7, 1997: CRISIS AS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DIPLOMACY: Political Zionism, Imperialism, and  Arab Nationalism; Rise and Fall of Empires; World War I and the Arab-Israeli conflict.
Political Geography: Integration and disintegration of Ottoman Empire, growth of Western imperialism, and rise of political Zionism and Arab nationalism is a story that can be seen by studying the changing political geography of the Middle East.

Lecture Notes:  Note on Empires: PS353empir.txt
PERCEIVED SECURITY DILEMMAS, OVERESTIMATION OF THREAT, AND MISCALCULATED ESCALATION: World War I  consequences for the Arab-Israeli conflict.

WORKING HYPOTHESIS:  External powers, regional rivalry, and domestic politics are factors that help explain nationalism and likelihood of conflict and momentum in the peace process.

QUESTIONS: Who are the Arabs, Christians, and Jews? What is the role of  Islam, Christianity, and Judaism in the Arab-Israeli conflict?
Maps

Maps of Empires: Material for Review
In general:  Documents Center Homepage:  Maps
See:   The Kingdom of David and Solomon - 1000 BCE - 42K
The Divided Kingdoms (Israel and Judah) - 600 BCE - 46K
The Hasmonean Kingdom - 1st Century BCE
In general:  Other Maps Relating to Islam's Historical Development
See:  Maps of the Umayyad Caliphate in the 2nd Half of the 9th - 2nd Half of the 10th Centuries
Map of the Empire of Sultan Salah Al-Din (1171-1193) & Crusaders' Principalities in Syria and Palestine

Islamic Texts and Resources:  MetaPage
The Koran:  A Searchable Index

Maps of the Current Middle East
Maps:  The Middle East as of 1995
The Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection
 
CRISIS AS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DIPLOMACY: Political Zionism, Imperialism, and  Arab Nationalism; Rise and Fall of Empires; World War I and the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Lecture Notes:  Note #2, Note #3, Notes #5
Lexicon of Zionism : Palestine under the British Mandate

Political Zionism and the Balfour Declaration. Nov. 2, 1917.  Zionist pressure wins British support for concept of national home for Jews in Palestine.

McMahon - Hussein Correspondence of July December 1915 Arab demands, British concessions, and the Arab revolt against the Ottoman Empire of June 5, 1916.

Sykes Picot Agreement of May 16, 1916  secret division of Arab inhabited territories into areas administered by the French and British areas along with internationalization of Palestine.

From the Palestine Mandate to the Arab General Strike.

UNDERESTIMATION OF HOSTILITY AND FAILURE TO DETER.

QUESTIONS: What is the role of Great Power pledges and counter pledges in the origins of the Arab-Israeli conflict?
Maps

Readings:
1.  ZIONISM - An Introduction:  Adapted from "Zionism" by Prof. Binyamin Neuberger, 1995
2.  Note on FOURTH WAVE CRITIQUE OF DETERRENCE THEORY.  World War II: consequences for the Arab-Israeli conflict.
3.  Congressional Quarterly: SKIM Country Profiles, Major Events, and STUDY map on inside front page cover. READ pp. 9-19.
4.  Bickerton and Klausner, SKIM List of Tables, Charts, and Maps, READ Preface, Introduction, Chapters 1 & 2.

January 14: BARGAINING AND NEGOTIATION STRATEGIES

Lecture Notes:  Note #8
Palestine under British Mandate (continued). World War II. The 1948 War.  Creation of the State of Israel.

GETTING TO YES:  Do not bargain over positions, bargain over interests, separate people from problem, search for options with mutual gain.

GETTING TO THE TABLE: Build bridges from conflict to conciliation (cease-fires as down payments on confidence); because it is rational to defect, try to establish mutual trust; develop rules of the game for the conduct and limitation of hostilities; use pre-negotiation as crisis avoidance:  identify the problem, search for options, commit then agree to negotiate, set the parameters for the negotiations to follow. Use third party consultation to distinguish between incompatible differences and subjective misperceptions, try face to face interactions to break down simplified stereotypes, be aware that similarities between groups are often ignored while differences are exaggerated, use problem solving diplomacy to effect a perceptual shift.
Maps

Readings:
1.  Note on Fisher, Roger.  Getting to Yes:  Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In.  Boston:  Houghton Mifflin, 1981.  Note on Stein, Janice (ed.)  Getting to the Table : The Processes of International Prenegotiation.  Baltimore:  The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1989.
2.  Bickerton and Klausner: chapters 3 and 4; READ Documents.
3.  Congressional Quarterly: 18-24.
4.  Negotiating Arab-Israeli Peace by Laura Zittrain Eisenberg and Neil Capla

January 21:  Application of Theoretical Concerns

Note 6:  Bargaining Approaches

From the Arab riots and General Strike (April 1936 1939) through the Birth of Israel and the 1948 War; World War II (September 1939).  Shaw and Hope Simpson Royal Commissions, 1929 and 1930 British Domestic Politics Recognition of irreconcilable demands of Arabs & Jews thus idea of partition: Royal Peel Commission, 1936: Partition of  Palestine British Vacillation: London Conference, March, 1939 and the British White Paper, May 17, 1939.  Renewal of Arab violence.  Split in Zionist ranks regarding British White Paper.  Zionists during World War II and the Biltmore Program.  The Holocaust and Jewish Refugees.  Anglo Zionist Diplomacy during the War.  Nazism and the Middle East.  The Rise of Jewish Extremism.  British Policy Re: Jews to Palestine.  Morrison Grady Plan.  London Talks, June July, 1946.  The Palestine Issue at the U.N.  Zionism and American Politics.  Partition, Birth of Israel.
Maps

January 28:  CRISIS AS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DIPLOMACY

The United Nations. Israel's birth. The Arab countries.
        Jewish Agency's Partition Plan, August 1946
        United Nations Partition Plan, 1942
        Battle for the Jerusalem Roads 1 April 1948,  May 1948
        Arab Attack 15 May 1948
        War for Independence, 1948-1949
        Frontiers of the State of Israel, 1949-1967
Maps

Readings:
1.  Bickerton and Klausner: READ chapters 3 and 4; SKIM Documents.
2.  Review Note on Empires: PS353empir.txt  -- CRISIS AS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DIPLOMACY
3.  Maps:   The Partition Plan, UN Resolution 181 - 29 Nov 1947
                  Armistice Lines 1949-1967

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February 4: Events Leading to the 1956 War

Arab Refugees, Armistice Disputes: the 1956 War
  Arab Exodus, 1948 -Repatriation v. Resettlement
  U.N. Conciliation Commission, 1949
  U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees
  (UNRWA), 1949

  Boundary Disputes, Border Incidents, and Retaliatory
  Raids  Egypt v. Israel
  Rise of Nasser in Egypt
  East/West Competition and the Arab Cold War
  Arms Transfers (Czech Egypt, 1955 to counter UK Iraq)

CALCULATED ESCALATION AND PEACE BY DESIGN:  The 1956 War
 
  UK and U.S. v. USSR; Iraq v Egypt
  West/West differences over the  1956 War
  Western Imperialism and the Suez Canal
  UK and France v. Egypt
  UK, Israel and France v. Egypt
  Consolidation of Nasserism
  United Arab Republic:  Egypt and Syria, 1958
  Superpower Co Management:
  Israel's First Sinai Withdrawal
  Superpower Competition: Northern Tier of Middle East
  Imperialism v. Nationalism
  Traditionalism v. Secularism
  Arab Cold War in the Gulf: Yemen Civil War 1962-67;
  Dhofar Rebellion in Oman, 1965-1975
  Arab Cold War, Regional Rivalry, and the Palestine
  Liberation Organization, 1964
Maps

Readings:
1. Bickerton and Klausner: READ chapter 5, SKIM Documents
2. Coursepack Articles:  "Aiding Arab Refugees," "Security Council Condemns Israel for Action Against Syria," "Transcript of Secretary Dulles' News Conference," "Press Release 68 (excerpt)," "United States Policy in the Middle East," "Efforts Toward Preserving Peace in the Near East," "Elements of Hope in the Middle East -- Economic Picture," "Report on the Suez Situation," "Suez Canal Discussions at Cairo," The Suez Question in Security Council."
3. Congressional Quarterly: READ pp. 24-27.
4.  Maps:  The Middle East as of 1995
5.  "Review of US Foreign Policy:  By Deputy Undersecretary Murphy," "General Assembly Action on the Middle East Question (Includes Resolutions Texts, etc.)"

February 11: MISCALCULATED ESCALATION:  Events Leading to the 1967 War

From War to War; calculation and miscalculation.

The Road to War
Raids and Reprisals
Mobilization
Delay
Preemption

MISCALCULATED ESCALATION AND PEACE BY PROCESS:  The 1967 War

From conflict over Israel's existence to Territorial Conflict
Territory for peace possibility
Arab regimes and armies discredited

        Evacuation of the United Nations' Security Force from Egypt
        Syrians attacked by Israel several times because of the Palestinians
        Syrians and Egyptians formed a defense pact
        Egypt and Jordanians formed a defense pact

Motivated Errors and Misperception:  Desires.
        Israeli overestimation of threat--combined threat
        Israeli misperception of joint Arab alignments (Egypt-Syria and Egypt-Jordan pacts) that could
        result in the destruction of Israel
        Israeli citizen army:  lack of ability to sustain mobilization
        Desire to overestimate threat leads to launching of a preemptive strike

Like World War I:  Interacting mobilizations and escalation threat perceptions produced an unwanted war

Influence of pro-Arab and pro-Israeli communities
Maps

Readings:
1. Bickerton and Klausner Chapter 6. Skim documents.
2. Maps: Israel's Borders On the Eve of the 1967 War
              The Golan: Distances and Elevations
              The Pre-1967 Borders: Distances and Elevations
3.  1967 and Afterward
4.  Miscalculated Escalation: The 1967 War by Ali Ahmad
5.  Congressional Quarterly: pp. 27-29.
6.  "The United States Calls for Restraint in the Middle East," "The UN Security Council Continues Consideration of the Crisis in the Near East," "The Situation in the Near East (Includes Press Releases and Correspondences)," "UN Security Council Continues Debate on Near East," "UN General Assembly Fifth Emergency Session," "The Rights of All Peoples to Self-Determination," "The Road to a Lasting Peace."
7. Maps: Cease-fire Lines Following the 1967 War
8.  PS472 Note #7 -- Questions on Prospect Theory
9.  PS472 Note #12 -- Explanations about Prospect Theory
10.  Outcome of the 1967 War in Relation to Palestinian Refugees
11.  AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee)
12.  The National Association of Arab Americans

February 18: PEACE BY DESIGN AND CALCULATED ESCALATION:  1969-70 War of Attrition.

Palestinian Raids and Israel's Reprisals
From Jordan to Lebanon 1969-70
Egyptian Strategy:  War for Peace
Comparison of post-1956 War with pre-1969-1970 War of Attrition:  PEACE BY DESIGN

CALCULATED ESCALATION TO STIMULATE THE PEACE PROCESS.  1973 War.  UNMOTIVATED BIASES, MISPERCEPTION, AND DECEPTION.  

Year of Decision, 1971
Saddat Ousts the Russians from Egypt, 1972
Washington Focuses on Moscow at the Expense of Cairo:  Soviet-American Detente
        Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, 1972
        Strategic Arms Limitation Talks and Treaty (SALT)
Eagles of the Palestinian Revolution Kidnap Soviet Jews in Vienna
        Syrian Preparation for Israeli Reprisal Raids for Palestinian Kidnapping
        Israeli Intelligence Misperceives Syrian Offensive Measures as Defensive
Egyptian Annual Maneuvers for Crossing of Suez Canal from Africa to Asia

No Road to 1973 War:
    Cognitive Beliefs--Unmotivated Errors--and Misperception:  The Conception and Expectation.
            Syria would not attack without Egypt
            Egypt would not attack without air superiority
            Israeli underestimation of joint Arab alignment:  "lower than low" likelihood of collective Egyptian-Syrian attack
    Motivated Errors and Misperception:  Yom Kippur and desire not to see trouble
    Unmotivated Errors and Misperception:  Ramadan and Israeli expectation not to see trouble
    Desire to avoid miscalculated escalation, as was the case in 1967:  lesson of 1967 became an unmotivated error for 1973
Maps

Readings:
1. Bickerton and Klausner: Chapter 7 and skim documents.
2. Congressional Quarterly: pp. 29-31.
3. Security Council Resolution 242
4.  Tanter and Shlaim.  "Decision Process, Choice, and Consequences."
5.  The War of Attrition
6. Congressional Quarterly: pgs: 31-42.
7. Constraints on Rationality: PS472 Lecture Note #3
8. Maps: Ceasefire Lines on the Egpytian Front: Oct. 24 1973
9. "The Need for a Negotiating Process In The Middle East," "U.S. Opposes Middle East Violence and Terrorism," "U.S. Foreign Policy for the 1970's" "Encouraging a Negotiating Process in the Middle East," "News Conference (With Secretary Kissinger on 10/12/73)," "President Nixon's News Conference of Oct. 26," Secretary Kissinger's News Conference of Oct. 25," "The Dilemma of Choice," "Middle East Peace Conference Opens in Geneva," "Secretary Kissinger's News Conference of Jan 3.," "U.S. announces Egypt-Israel Agreement on Force Separation."
10.  PS472 Note #7 -- Questions on Prospect Theory
11.  PS472 Note #12 -- Explanations about Prospect Theory
 

February 25: Palestinian Resistance

From Arab Nationalism, through Pan Arabism, to Palestinian Resistance
Consensus-Building and Coalition Formation
Palestine Arab Nationalist Movement Under the Mandate
The Palestinian Resistance and Inter-Arab Politics
Role of the Oppositionists in the Resistance
Ahmed Jabril, Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine/General
Command
Abu Nidal, Fatah Revolutionary Council
Nayef Hawatmeh, Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine
Muhammad Abul Abbas, Palestine Liberation Front

The PLO: Structure, Ideology, and Behavior
Yasir Arafat, Fatah, Conquest
Cairo Agreement in Lebanon, 1969
Black September 1970
PLO in Lebanon
PLO as a World Player, and as "State Within a State"
Rabat Conference Resolution, October 1974
Arafat address to the U.N., November 1974

Incursion into Lebanon by Israel Defense Forces (IDF), March 14, 1978; Invasion of Lebanon by IDF, June 6, 1982

Lebanese Civil War, 1975-1976
Israel's Litani Operation, 1978
The Peace Process, 1973-1979
Camp David Accords, 1978
Israel's Invasion of Lebanon, 1982
Maps

Readings:
1.  Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO)
2.  United Nations Resolutions Regarding Palestine
3.  Palestinian National Charter--July 1-17, 1968
4.  Revisions to Palestinian National Charter--April 24, 1996
5. Bickerton and Klausner: Chapter 8 and skim document
6. Congressional Quarterly: 42-45 & 67-74.
7.  Bickerton and Klausner Chapter 9 and skim documents.
8.  Congressional Quarterly, READ pgs. 45-54 & 75-94.
9. "U.S., Israel Agree on Strategic Cooperation," "Security Council Votes on Golan Heights Situation,"
"Peace and Security in the Middle East," "A New Opportunity for Peace in the Middle East," "The Quest for Peace," "Middle East Peace Initiative," "Secretary Shultz Interviewed on 'Meet the Press' and 'Face the Nation,'" "Official Statements Released in September."
10.  United Nations Security Council Resolution 425
11.  Camp David Accords--September 17, 1978
12.  Peace Treaty Between Israel and Egypt--March 26, 1979
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March 4: NO CLASS--Spring Break.

March 11:  IMPACT OF WAR ON THE PEACE PROCESS--1980-1990

The Peace Process: From War-to-War to Step-by-Step Diplomacy
Peace Process: From the Separate Peace to a Comprehensive Peace (The Triumph of Hope over Experience)
Autonomy Talks Stalled, 1980
European Venice Declaration, June 13, 1980
Sadat Out; Mubarak In, October, 1981
Cold Peace between Egypt and Israel
Fahd Peace Plan, August 7, 1981: Bonus for AWACS?/ Fez
Summit Plan September 9, 1982
Reagan Initiative September 1, 1982:  A PLO Political Bonus for the Military Minus in Lebanon
Brezhnev Plan September 10, 1982
U.S.  in Lebanon, 1983; U.S. out, 1984
PLO - Jordan Agreement February 11, 1985
Gulf War I - Iran and Iraq War between 1980-1988

December, 1988:
    Palestine National Council accepts original U.N. partition plan (U.N. General Assembly
    Resolution 181), Israel's right to exist, and U.N. Security Council resolutions 242 and 338,
    and renounces terrorism. The U.S. opens dialogue with the PLO, the first formal contacts with the
    PLO in 13 years.  The PLO did not revise the charter, however.

IMPACT OF WAR ON THE PEACE PROCESS--1990-1993:  Gulf War II to Oslo Peace

August 2, 1990:
    Iraq invades and occupies Kuwait. Yasser Arafat's support for Saddam Hussein leads Persian Gulf
    states to cut off funds to the PLO. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are forced out of the Gulf
    states.

October 18, 1991:
    Secretary of State Baker, at a news conference in Jerusalem, says President Bush and Soviet
    President Gorbachev are inviting Israel, the Arab states, and the Palestinians to attend a Middle East
    peace conference to be held beginning October 30 in Madrid. Baker says the conference is to be
    followed by "direct negotiations to achieve real peace."

October 30, 1991:
    Opening the Madrid conference, President Bush says the objective is "to achieve "real
    peace...security, diplomatic relations, economic relations, trade, investment, cultural exchange, even
    tourism. We seek a Middle East, where vast resources are no longer devoted to armaments."
    Outsiders can assist, he says, "but in the end, it is up to the peoples and the governments of the
    Middle East to shape the future of the Middle East."

October 31, 1991:
    Palestinians, in a joint delegation with Jordan, attend the Madrid talks between Jordan, Syria, Israel
    and Lebanon. Direct bilateral talks begin among Israel and Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and participants
    from the occupied territories. Multilateral negotiations begin on arms control, security, water, refugees,
    the environment and economic development.

September 9, 1993:
    Israel and the PLO agree to recognize each other after 45 years of conflict, building on a pact already
    initialed on Palestinian self-rule in the Israeli-occupied Gaza Strip and in Jericho.  PLO leader Yasser
    Arafat signs a letter recognizing Israel and renouncing violence.

September 10, 1993:
    Arafat letter is hand-carried to Israel by Norwegian Foreign Minister Johan Joergen Holst, whose
    country brokered the PLO-Israel pact.

    Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin signs a document recognizing the PLO, and opens the way to a
    signing ceremony August 13 in Washington.

    President Clinton calls the Oslo agreement "a bold breakthrough." "Today marks a shining moment of
    hope for the people of the Middle East; indeed, of the entire world," he says, pledging continued direct
    engagement of the United States in the peace process.

    European leaders, including French president Francois Mitterrand and British Prime Minister
    John Major give strong endorsements to the Israel-PLO mutual recognition accord, but caution that
    much remains to be done.

    Belgian Foreign Minister Willy Claes, representing the European Community's (EC) current
    presidency, says he will immediately start consultations with his EC counterparts and the executive
    European Commission to intensify the Community's contribution to the
    Middle East peace process. The EC is already the largest donor of aid to the Palestinians.

September 13, 1993:
    A new page in the history of the Middle East is turned at the White House, as Israeli Prime Minister
    Yitzhak Rabin and PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat meet and watch Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon
    Peres PLO Executive Council Member Abou Abbas sign the Declaration of Principles on Interim
    Self-Government Arrangements.  President Bill Clinton, former presidents George Bush and Jimmy
    Carter, and 3,000 dignitaries witness the signing--on the same desk used in the signing of the Camp
    David accords 15 years earlier.
Maps

Readings:
1.  Congressional Quarterly: 54-60 & 95-100.
2.  B & K Chapter 10.
3.  Military history: Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988)
4.  The United States Army in Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm
5.  CIA Support to the US Military During the Persian Gulf War
 
March 18: MIDTERM EXAM.

March 25: Role of Religion in Middle Eastern Conflicts

Fourteen Centuries of Islam
    The Historical and Cultural Setting
    The Doctrine of Islamic Faith
    Islam Today:  A New Assertiveness

The Clash of Civilizations

A Sense of Siege
    Europe and Asia
    Islam and the Loss of Mediterranean Unity
    Islam in Europe and Insecure Borderlands
    The First Cold War
    The Legacy of Colonialism
    Recent Images:  Suez, Oil, and the Iranian Revolution

Muslim Historical and Psychological Perception of the West
    Islam as a Christian Heresy
    Shrinking of Islamic Empire
    Era of Imperialism
    Export of Western Values
    Loss of Leadership of the Islamic World
    Establishment of Israel
    Western Intervention
    Islamic Weakness
    Dilemma of Modernization

Contemporary Dilemmas Posed to the West by the Islamic World
    Islam, Democracy, and Human Rights
    Migration and Social Cohesion
    Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict
    North-South Relations:  To Have and Have Not
    Islamic Instability as a Threat to World Order
    The Islamic Factor in European Security
    Proliferation and the North-South Military Balance

Solidary and Coexistence
    Islamic Solidarity--How Likely?
    Factors Working Against Muslim Solidarity
    Dealing with the Islamist Challenge
    Islam as a Catalyst for Have-Not States
    Potential Islamist Policies Toward the West

The Geopolitical Dimension
    Areas of Confrontation
    The Mediterranean
    Turkey's Borders with "Christian" States in the Balkans
    Central Asia
    China
    The Indian Subcontinent
    Southeast Asia
    Africa
    North America
Maps

Readings:
1.  Congressional Quarterly, Chapter 6, Fourteen Centuries of Islam.
2.  Review Bickerton & Klausner, pp. 3-6.
3.  The Clash of Civilizations? - Samuel P. Huntington
4.  Fuller and Lesser.  A Sense of Siege.  Introduction and Western Perceptions of Islam and Geopolitical Legacy.
5.  Fuller and Lesser.  Chapters 3 & 4, The Muslim Historical and Psychological Perception of the West; Contemporary Dilemmas Posed to the West by the Islamic World.
6.  Fuller and Lesser.  Chapters 7 & 8, Solidary and Coexistence; The Geopolitical Dimension.
7.  Note on Middle East States and the Approaching 21st Century

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April 1: Computer Lab at Shapiro Undergraduate Library--second floor
computing site.
Maps

April 8:
Maps
Readings:
1.  Fuller and Lesser, chapters 3 and 4.

April 15:
Computer Lab.
Maps

April 22:
Maps
Readings:
1.  Lustick, chapters 1 and 2.

April 29:
Computer Lab.
Maps

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  Professor Raymond Tanter rtanter@umich.edu                                                                                                                                            Political Science Department
The University of Michigan                                                                                                           (734) 763-2221 (o); (734) 764-3522 (fax)
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~rtanter                                                                                                             Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1045
                                                                                                                                                      (734) 769-1988 (residence voicemail/fax)