Political Science 498 Winter 1999 Syllabus

Syllabus: The Arab-Israeli Conflict

Professor Raymond Tanter, rtanter@umich.edu
Political Science Department
The University of Michigan (734) 763-2221 (o); (734) 764-3522 (fax)
http://www-personal.umich.edu/~rtanter Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1045

Political Science 498, ps498w99@umich.edu
Winter 1999
Wednesday, 1300-1500
Shapiro Library Computing Site

Arab-Israeli Conflict Background Books Grading

Research and Computer Assistance Sites

January February March April

Maps

Arab-Israeli Conflict Homepage Conferencing on the Web

Arab-Israeli Conflict

Just as the East West Cold War ended, the era of hot wars in the Arab-Israeli conflict is coming to a close. Cold peace among peoples rather than hot wars among states characterizes the region as the Millennium approaches. Wars between Israel and Arab countries over the existence of a Jewish state are giving way to disputes between Israeli Jews and Palestinian Arabs about the creation of a Palestinian state.

This class discusses the historical background of the Arab-Zionist dispute, interim and final status issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, outstanding questions in the Israel-Syria peace process, links between the Arab-Israel zone and the Arab/Persian Gulf region, the expanding role of religion in the Middle East, and the post-Cold War evolution of terrorism and proliferation.

With respect to religion, strife between Islamists (radical Muslims) and secular actors is at the core of new conflicts in the area. Similarly, disputes between zealous Jews and secular Jews divide the State of Israel. As Muslim and Jewish ideologues are increasingly at odds with secular parties in Arab entities and in Israel, these zealots are a fit subject for study.

The class ends with a discussion of the post-Cold War phenomena of "rogue actors," those that engage in international terrorism and proliferation of weapons of mass destruction.

Lecture notes address the political history of the conflicts from the perspective of social science theory. Discussions offer students a forum for debating the relationship between theoretical ideas and historical events.

A computer conference (ps-498-w99) provides students a forum for discussing current issues in the peace process. See COW help page on the homepage for instructions on how to subscribe and use COW. Participation in COW is a course requirement.

Core ideas include crisis as an opportunity for diplomacy; bargaining and negotiation strategies; global, regional, and domestic factors that explain conflict and cooperation; security dilemmas; deterrence failure; overestimation of threat; miscalculated escalation; loss of control as a bargaining tactic; preemption; lowest common denominator consensus decision-making; impact of war on the peace process; alliance politics; force and diplomacy; impact of anomic violence on the peace process; external threats and group cohesion; effect of religious extremism on the peace process; and cognitive screens as well as threat misperception.

Consider the Arab-Israeli conflict as a series of evolving, terminating, and interrelated disputes: European governments against both Arabs and Zionist Jews; Arabs and Zionists against each other; Arab traditionalists versus Arab nationalists; radical Arab states and non-state political actors against Israel; Islamic, non-Arab Iran versus Arab States; secular Turkey with a large Muslim population aligned with Israel against Syria and Iraq; great power competition for regional clients; great power cooperation in the peace process; secular Jews versus radical religious Jews; secular Arab nationalists versus Islamists.

This emphasis on multiplicity of disputes and variety of actors suggests that there is no singular key to peace.

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GRADING:

Grade weights are 35% for a midterm, 35% for a final research paper that uses traditional library and Internet resources and follows the Turabian Style Guide, 15% for COW, and 15% for participation.

The term papers should reflect the triad of theory, political history, as well as policy options and future scenarios. Students should act as if they were both scholars and policy analysts, and hence should seek to explain events and evaluate policy alternatives.

Students should explain some future event in terms of theoretical ideas discussed in class.

Participants should evaluate policy options in light of scenarios and contingencies within such stories about the future.

Papers should contain html links to sources, graphics, and endnotes.

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BOOKS:

Bickerton, Ian and Carla Klausner. A Concise History of the Arab- Israeli Conflict. Englewood Cliffs New Jersey: Prentice Hall, latest edition, paperback.

Eisenberg Laura Zittrain and Neil Caplan. 1998. Negotiating Arab-Israeli Peace. Bloomington IN: Indiana University Press, paperback.

Fuller, Graham and Ian Lesser. 1995. A Sense of Siege: The Geopolitics of Islam and the West Boulder: Westview Press, paperback.

Tanter, Raymond. 1999. Rogue Regimes: Terrorism and Proliferation. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1999, paperback.

RESEARCH & COMPUTER ASSISTANCE SITES

Arab-Israeli Conflict Research Sites

How to Create a Personal or Group Homepage

A Beginner's Guide to HTML

Searching For How-to Documentation from the Information Technology Division

Accessing your IFS directory (your home directory) on a MAC

Contacting an ITD Consultant for Help

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A note about assignments and schedule: Text in UPPERCASE denotes theoretical concepts. Text in Title Case denotes historical illustration of these concepts.

DATES:

January 6, 1999: CRISIS AS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DIPLOMACY

Political Zionism, Imperialism, and Arab Nationalism; Rise and Fall of Empires; World War I and the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Political Geography: Integration and disintegration of Ottoman Empire, growth of Western imperialism, and rise of political Zionism and Arab nationalism is a story that can be seen by studying the changing political geography of the Middle East.

Lecture Notes: Note on Empires: PS353empir.txt

PERCEIVED SECURITY DILEMMAS, OVERESTIMATION OF THREAT, AND MISCALCULATED ESCALATION: World War I consequences for the Arab-Israeli conflict.

WORKING HYPOTHESIS: External powers, regional rivalry, and domestic politics are factors that help explain nationalism and likelihood of conflict and momentum in the peace process.

QUESTIONS: Who are the Arabs, Christians, and Jews? What is the role of Islam, Christianity, and Judaism in the Arab-Israeli conflict?

See:

Humanities Text Initiative (Searchable text of the Koran and Bible)

Islamic Texts and Resources Metapage (SUNY-Buffalo)

Links to various versions of the Qur'an

Pamphlets on Islamic concepts and frequently-asked questions

Muslim history and civilization

Judaism and Jewish Resources

Extensive annotated links to Jewish Studies, Jewish Communites, and the

Holocaust

Includes organizations, discussion groups, museums, and libraries

Maps

Maps of Empires: Material for Review

In general: Documents Center Homepage: Maps

See:

The Kingdom of David and Solomon - 1000 BCE - 42K
The Divided Kingdoms (Israel and Judah) - 600 BCE - 46K
The Hasmonean Kingdom - 1st Century BCE

In general:

Other Maps Relating to Islam's Historical Development

See:

Maps of the Umayyad Caliphate in the 2nd Half of the 9th - 2nd Half of the 10th Centuries
Map of the Empire of Sultan Salah Al-Din (1171-1193) & Crusaders' Principalities in Syria and Palestine

Islamic Texts and Resources: MetaPage
The Koran: A Searchable Index

Maps of the Current Middle East

Maps:

The Middle East as of 1995
The Perry-Castañeda Library Map Collection

CRISIS AS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DIPLOMACY: Political Zionism, Imperialism, and Arab Nationalism; Rise and Fall of Empires; World War I and the Arab-Israeli conflict.

Lecture Notes: Note #2, Note #3, Notes #5

Lexicon of Zionism : Palestine under the British Mandate

Political Zionism and the Balfour Declaration. Nov. 2, 1917. Zionist pressure wins British support for concept of national home for Jews in Palestine.

McMahon - Hussein Correspondence of July December 1915 Arab demands, British concessions, and the Arab revolt against the Ottoman Empire of June 5, 1916.

Sykes Picot Agreement of May 16, 1916 secret division of Arab inhabited territories into areas administered by the French and British areas along with internationalization of Palestine.

From the Palestine Mandate to the Arab General Strike.

UNDERESTIMATION OF HOSTILITY AND FAILURE TO DETER.

QUESTIONS: What is the role of Great Power pledges and counter pledges in the origins of the Arab-Israeli conflict?

Maps

Readings:

1. ZIONISM - An Introduction: Adapted from "Zionism" by Prof. Binyamin Neuberger, 1995

2. Note on FOURTH WAVE CRITIQUE OF DETERRENCE THEORY. World War II: consequences for the Arab-Israeli conflict.

3. Bickerton and Klausner, SKIM List of Tables, Charts, and Maps, READ Preface, Introduction, Chapters 1 & 2.

January 13: BARGAINING AND NEGOTIATION STRATEGIES

Lecture Notes: Note #8

Palestine under British Mandate (continued). World War II. The 1948 War. Creation of the State of Israel.

GETTING TO YES: Do not bargain over positions, bargain over interests, separate people from problem, search for options with mutual gain.

GETTING TO THE TABLE: Build bridges from conflict to conciliation (cease-fires as down payments on confidence); because it is rational to defect, try to establish mutual trust; develop rules of the game for the conduct and limitation of hostilities; use pre-negotiation as crisis avoidance: identify the problem, search for options, commit then agree to negotiate, set the parameters for the negotiations to follow. Use third party consultation to distinguish between incompatible differences and subjective misperceptions, try face to face interactions to break down simplified stereotypes, be aware that similarities between groups are often ignored while differences are exaggerated, use problem solving diplomacy to effect a perceptual shift.

Maps

Readings:

1. Note on Fisher, Roger. Getting to Yes: Negotiating Agreement Without Giving In. Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1981. Note on Stein, Janice (ed.) Getting to the Table : The Processes of International Prenegotiation. Baltimore: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1989.

2. Bickerton and Klausner: chapters 3 and 4; READ Documents.

3. Negotiating Arab-Israeli Peace by Laura Zittrain Eisenberg and Neil Caplan

4. Negotiating Arab-Israeli Peace, Introduction: Historical Patterns

January 20: Application of Theoretical Concerns

Note 6: Bargaining Approaches

From the Arab Riots and General Strike (April 1936, 1939), World War II (September 1939), through the Birth of Israel and the 1948-49 War.

Shaw and Hope Simpson Royal Commissions, 1929 and 1930

British Domestic Politics

Recognition of irreconcilable demands of Arabs and Jews thus idea of partition:

Royal Peel Commission, 1936

Partition of Palestine

British Vacillation: London Conference, March, 1939 and the British White Paper, May 17, 1939

Renewal of Arab violence.

Split in Zionist ranks regarding British White Paper.

Zionists during World War II and the Biltmore Program.

The Holocaust and Jewish Refugees.

Anglo Zionist Diplomacy during the War.

Nazism and the Middle East.

The Rise of Jewish Extremism.

British Policy Regarding Jewish Refugees and Palestine.

Morrison Grady Plan.

London Talks, June July, 1946.

The Palestine Issue at the United Nations.

Zionism and American Politics.

Partition and the Birth of Israel.

Maps

January 27: CRISIS AS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DIPLOMACY

The United Nations and Israel's Birth. The Arab countries.

Jewish Agency's Partition Plan, August 1946

UN Partition Plan, 1942

Battle for the Jerusalem Roads 1 April 1948, May 1948

Arab Attack 15 May 1948

War for Independence, 1948-1949

Frontiers of the State of Israel, 1949-1967

Maps

Readings:

1. Bickerton and Klausner: READ chapters 3 and 4; SKIM Documents.

2. Review Note on Empires: PS353empir.txt -- CRISIS AS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DIPLOMACY

3. Maps: The Partition Plan, UN Resolution 181 - 29 Nov 1947
Armistice Lines 1949-1967

4. Israel:

Israel in Brief

History

The State

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February 3: Events Leading to the 1956 War

Arab Refugees, Armistice Disputes: the 1956 War

The Sinai Campaign of 1956 (Operation Kadesh)

Arab Exodus, 1948 -Repatriation v. Resettlement

UN Conciliation Commission, 1949

UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees

(UNRWA), 1949

Boundary Disputes, Border Incidents, and Retaliatory Raids

Egypt v. Israel

Rise of Nasser in Egypt

East/West Competition and the Arab Cold War

Arms Transfers (Czech Egypt, 1955 to counter UK Iraq)

CALCULATED ESCALATION AND PEACE BY DESIGN: The 1956 War

UK and U.S. v. USSR; Iraq v Egypt

West/West differences over the 1956 War

Western Imperialism and the Suez Canal

UK and France v. Egypt

UK, Israel and France v. Egypt

Consolidation of Nasserism

United Arab Republic: Egypt and Syria, 1958

Superpower Co-management:

Israel's First Sinai Withdrawal

Superpower Competition: Northern Tier of Middle East

Imperialism v. Nationalism

Traditionalism v. Secularism

Arab Cold War in the Gulf: Yemen Civil War 1962-67;

Dhofar Rebellion in Oman, 1965-1975

Arab Cold War, Regional Rivalry, and the Palestine Liberation Organization, 1964

Maps

Readings:

1. Bickerton and Klausner: READ chapter 5, SKIM Documents

2. Maps: The Middle East as of 1995

February 10: MISCALCULATED ESCALATION: Events Leading to the 1967 War

From War to War

Calculation and Miscalculation.

The Road to War

Raids and Reprisals

Mobilization

Delay

Preemption

MISCALCULATED ESCALATION AND PEACE BY PROCESS: The 1967 War

History of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF): The Six Day War

From conflict over Israel's existence to territorial conflict

Territory for peace possibility

Arab regimes and armies discredited

Evacuation of the United Nations' Security Force from Egypt

Syrians attacked by Israel several times because of the Palestinians

Syrians and Egyptians created a defense pact

Egypt and Jordanians formed a defense pact

Motivated Errors and Misperception: Desires.

        Israeli overestimation of threat--combined threat

        Israeli misperception of joint Arab alignments (Egypt-Syria and Egypt-Jordan pacts) that could
        result in the destruction of Israel

        Israeli citizen army: lack of ability to sustain mobilization

        Desire to overestimate threat leads to launching of a preemptive strike

Like World War I: Interacting mobilizations and escalation threat perceptions produced an unwanted war

Influence of pro-Arab and pro-Israeli communities

Maps

Readings:

1. Bickerton and Klausner Chapter 6. Skim documents.

2. Maps: Israel's Borders On the Eve of the 1967 War

The Golan: Distances and Elevations

The Pre-1967 Borders: Distances and Elevations

3. 1967 and Afterward

4. Miscalculated Escalation: The 1967 War by Ali Ahmad

5. Maps: Cease-fire Lines Following the 1967 War

6. PS472 Note #7 -- Questions on Prospect Theory

7. PS472 Note #12 -- Explanations about Prospect Theory

8. Outcome of the 1967 War in Relation to Palestinian Refugees

9. AIPAC (American Israel Public Affairs Committee)

10. The National Association of Arab Americans

February 17: PEACE BY DESIGN AND CALCULATED ESCALATION: 1969-70 War of Attrition.

Palestinian Raids and Israel's Reprisals

From Jordan to Lebanon 1969-70

Egyptian Strategy: War for Peace

Comparison of post-1956 War with pre-1969-1970 War of Attrition: PEACE BY DESIGN

CALCULATED ESCALATION TO STIMULATE THE PEACE PROCESS. 1973 War. UNMOTIVATED BIASES, MISPERCEPTION, AND DECEPTION.

Year of Decision, 1971

Sadat Ousts the Russians from Egypt, 1972

Washington Focuses on Moscow at the Expense of Cairo: Soviet-American Détente

Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, 1972

Strategic Arms Limitation Talks and Treaty (SALT)

Eagles of the Palestinian Revolution Kidnap Soviet Jews in Vienna

Syrian Preparation for Israeli Reprisal Raids for Palestinian Kidnapping

Israeli Intelligence Misperceives Syrian Offensive Measures as Defensive

Egyptian Annual Maneuvers for Crossing of Suez Canal from Africa to Asia

Road to 1973 War:

Cognitive Beliefs--Unmotivated Errors--and Misperception: The Conception and Expectation.

Syria would not attack without Egypt

Egypt would not attack without air superiority

Israeli underestimation of joint Arab alignment: "lower than low" likelihood of collective
Egyptian-Syrian attack

Motivated Errors and Misperception: Yom Kippur and desire not to see trouble

Unmotivated Errors and Misperception: Ramadan and Israeli expectation not to see trouble

Desire to avoid miscalculated escalation, as was the case in 1967: lesson of 1967 became an unmotivated error for 1973

Maps

Readings:

1. Bickerton and Klausner: Chapter 7 and skim documents.

2. Security Council Resolution 242

3. Tanter and Shlaim. "Decision Process, Choice, and Consequences."

4. The War of Attrition

5. Constraints on Rationality: PS472 Lecture Note #3

6. Maps: Ceasefire Lines on the Egyptian Front: Oct. 24 1973

7. PS472 Note #7 -- Questions on Prospect Theory

8. PS472 Note #12 -- Explanations about Prospect Theory

9. "A Scenario of Conflict: Egypt and Israel, 1999," Arab Israel Conflict, Winter 1998.

February 24: Palestinian Resistance

From Arab Nationalism, through Pan Arabism, to Palestinian Resistance

Consensus-Building and Coalition Formation

Palestine Arab Nationalist Movement Under the Mandate

The Palestinian Resistance and Inter-Arab Politics

Role of the Oppositionists in the Resistance

Ahmed Jabril, Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine/General Command

Abu Nidal, Fatah Revolutionary Council

Nayef Hawatmeh, Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine

Muhammad Abul Abbas, Palestine Liberation Front

The PLO: Structure, Ideology, and Behavior

Yasir Arafat, Fatah, Conquest

Cairo Agreement in Lebanon, 1969

Black September 1970

PLO in Lebanon

PLO as a World Player, and as "State Within a State"

Rabat Conference Resolution, October 1974

Arafat address to the U.N., November 1974

Incursion into Lebanon by Israel Defense Forces (IDF), March 14, 1978; Invasion of Lebanon by IDF, June 6, 1982

Lebanese Civil War, 1975-1976

Israel's Litani Operation, 1978

The Peace Process, 1973-1979

Camp David Accords, 1978

Israel's Invasion of Lebanon, 1982

Maps

Readings:

1. Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO)

2. United Nations Resolutions Regarding Palestine

3. Palestinian National Charter--July 1-17, 1968

4. Revisions to Palestinian National Charter--April 24, 1996

5. Bickerton and Klausner: Chapter 8 and skim document

6. Bickerton and Klausner Chapter 9 and skim documents.

7. United Nations Security Council Resolution 425

8. Camp David Accords--September 17, 1978

9. Peace Treaty Between Israel and Egypt--March 26, 1979

10. Eisenberg and Caplan, Chapter 1, 2, 3.

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March 3: NO CLASS--Spring Break.

March 10: IMPACT OF WAR ON THE PEACE PROCESS--1980-2000

The Peace Process: From War-to-War to Step-by-Step Diplomacy

Peace Process: From the Separate Peace to a Comprehensive Peace (The Triumph of Hope over Experience)

Autonomy Talks Stalled, 1980

European Venice Declaration, June 13, 1980

Sadat Out; Mubarak In, October, 1981

Cold Peace between Egypt and Israel

Fahd Peace Plan, August 7, 1981: Bonus for AWACS?/ Fez

Summit Plan September 9, 1982

Reagan Initiative September 1, 1982: A PLO Political Bonus for the Military Minus in Lebanon

Brezhnev Plan September 10, 1982

United States in Lebanon, 1983; U.S. out, 1984

PLO-Jordan Agreement February 11, 1985

Gulf War I - Iran and Iraq War, 1980-1988

December, 1988:
    Palestine National Council accepts original U.N. partition plan (U.N. General Assembly
    Resolution 181), Israel's right to exist, and U.N. Security Council resolutions 242 and 338,
    and renounces terrorism. The U.S. opens dialogue with the PLO, the first formal contacts with      the PLO in 13 years. PLO did not revise the charter, however, until 1998.

IMPACT OF WAR ON THE PEACE PROCESS--1990-1993: Gulf War II to Oslo Peace

August 2, 1990:

Iraq invades and occupies Kuwait. Yasser Arafat's support for Saddam Hussein leads Persian Gulf states cut off of funds to the PLO. Hundreds of thousands of Palestinians are forced out of the Gulf
states.

October 18, 1991:

Secretary of State Baker, at a news conference in Jerusalem, says President Bush and Soviet
President Gorbachev are inviting Israel, the Arab states, and the Palestinians to attend a Middle East peace conference to be held beginning October 30 in Madrid. Baker says the conference is to be
followed by "direct negotiations to achieve real peace."

October 30, 1991:

Opening the Madrid conference, President Bush says the objective is "to achieve "real
peace...security, diplomatic relations, economic relations, trade, investment, cultural exchange, even
tourism. We seek a Middle East, where vast resources are no longer devoted to armaments."
Outsiders can assist, he says, "but in the end, it is up to the peoples and the governments of the
Middle East to shape the future of the Middle East."

October 31, 1991:

Palestinians, in a joint delegation with Jordan, attend the Madrid talks between Jordan, Syria, Israel
and Lebanon. Direct bilateral talks begin among Israel and Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and participants
from the occupied territories. Multilateral negotiations begin on arms control, security, water, refugees, the environment and economic development.

September 9, 1993:

Israel and the PLO agree to recognize each other after 45 years of conflict, building on a pact already initialed on Palestinian self-rule in the Israeli-occupied Gaza Strip and in Jericho. PLO leader Yasser Arafat signs a letter recognizing Israel and renouncing violence.

September 10, 1993:

Arafat letter is hand-carried to Israel by Norwegian Foreign Minister Johan Joergen Holst, whose
country brokered the PLO-Israel pact.

Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin signs a document recognizing the PLO, and opens the way to a
signing ceremony August 13 in Washington.

President Clinton calls the Oslo agreement "a bold breakthrough." "Today marks a shining moment of hope for the people of the Middle East; indeed, of the entire world," he says, pledging continued direct engagement of the United States in the peace process.

European leaders, including French president Francois Mitterrand and British Prime Minister
John Major give strong endorsements to the Israel-PLO mutual recognition accord, but caution that
much remains to be done.

Belgian Foreign Minister Willy Claes, representing the European Community's (EC) current
presidency, says he will immediately start consultations with his EC counterparts and the executive
European Commission to intensify the Community's contribution to the Middle East peace process. The EC is already the largest donor of aid to the Palestinians.

September 13, 1993:

A new page in the history of the Middle East is turned at the White House, as Israeli Prime Minister
Yitzhak Rabin and PLO Chairman Yasser Arafat meet and watch Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon
Peres PLO Executive Council Member Abou Abbas sign the Declaration of Principles on Interim
Self-Government Arrangements. President Bill Clinton, former presidents George Bush and Jimmy
Carter, and 3,000 dignitaries witness the signing--on the same desk used in the signing of the Camp
David accords 15 years earlier.

Maps

Readings:

1. Wye River

2. B & K, Chapter 10.

3. E & C, Chapter 4, 5, and 6.

4. Military history: Iran-Iraq War (1980-1988)

5. The United States Army in Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm

6. CIA Support to the US Military During the Persian Gulf War

7. Desert Fox

March 17: MIDTERM EXAM.

March 24: Role of Religion in Middle Eastern Conflicts

Fourteen Centuries of Islam

The Historical and Cultural Setting

The Doctrine of Islamic Faith

Islam Today: A New Assertiveness

The Clash of Civilizations

A Sense of Siege

Europe and Asia

Islam and the Loss of Mediterranean Unity

Islam in Europe and Insecure Borderlands

The First Cold War

The Legacy of Colonialism

Recent Images: Suez, Oil, and the Iranian Revolution

Readings:

Fuller and Lesser. A Sense of Siege. Introduction and Western Perceptions of Islam and Geopolitical Legacy.

Islamic Texts and Resources Metapage (SUNY-Buffalo)

"Role of Religion in Middle Eastern Conflicts: From Muhammad to Islamists"

Discussion Questions

Links to various versions of the Qur'an

Pamphlets on Islamic concepts and frequently-asked questions

Muslim history and civilization

Muslim Historical and Psychological Perception of the West

Islam as a Christian Heresy

Shrinking of Islamic Empire

Era of Imperialism

Export of Western Values

Loss of Leadership of the Islamic World

Establishment of Israel

Western Intervention

Islamic Weakness

Dilemma of Modernization

Contemporary Dilemmas Posed to the West by the Islamic World

Islam, Democracy, and Human Rights

Migration and Social Cohesion

Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict

North-South Relations: To Have and Have Not

Islamic Instability as a Threat to World Order

The Islamic Factor in European Security

Proliferation and the North-South Military Balance

Readings:

Fuller and Lesser. Chapters 3 & 4, The Muslim Historical and Psychological Perception of the West; Contemporary Dilemmas Posed to the West by the Islamic World.

Solidarity and Coexistence

Islamic Solidarity--How Likely?

Factors Working Against Muslim Solidarity

Dealing with the Islamist Challenge

Islam as a Catalyst for Have-Not States

Potential Islamist Policies Toward the West

Geopolitical Dimension

Areas of Confrontation

The Mediterranean

Turkey's Borders with "Christian" States in the Balkans

Central Asia

China