ps353empir.doc January 16, 1997

CRISIS AS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR DIPLOMACY: Political Zionism, Imperialism,

and Arab Nationalism; Rise and Fall of Empires; World War I and the

Arab-Israeli conflict.

As empires breakup, the crisis of disintegration creates opportunities for

local leaders to assert themselves. As empires breakup, the crisis of

disintegration allow Great Powers to compete over which will pick up the

pieces of the disintegrating empire. Breakup of empires creates crises

that are opportunities for the rebirth of former states and for the birth

of new states.

With the collapse of the Soviet empire in 1989, this crisis of

disintegration allowed former states received a new lease on life: Latvia,

Lithuania, Estonia, Ukraine received a shot in the arm from the

disintegration of the USSR.

Western imperialism, political Zionism, and Arab nationalism competed over

the disposition of the Ottoman Empire. Arabs wanted one large state, but

imperialists and Zionists wanted to divide Arab world and create many mini

states with conservative rulers beholden to imperial command.

Political Geography: Integration and disintegration of Ottoman Empire,

growth of Western imperialism, and rise of political Zionism and Arab

nationalism is a story that can be seen by studying the changing political

geography of the Middle East.

Disintegration of empires allows new empires to form.

Persian Empire: 500 BC to 300 BC

Roman Empire: at its height, in 117 AD

Ottoman Empire: 1292-1672: at its peak, and declined thereafter

Islamic empire north to the Black/Caspian Sea, West to Morocco and

southern Spain, East to Iran. Grew rapidly because local rulers lined up

their vectors with those of the empire and used Islam to achieve their

goals.

Ottoman Turks stopped at the gates of Vienna but had a chance to conquer

and enslave the area of the former Yugoslavia, southern Slavs or slaves to

the Ottoman Turks. Muslim Bosnians are the leftovers from Ottoman Empire

in East Europe. Bosnia Muslims in conflict with orthodox Serbs and

Catholic Croats in former Yugoslavia.

Zionist leaders used breakup of the Ottoman Empire better than Arab

nationalists. Zionists lined up their vectors with those of British and

French imperialists in order to gain a foothold in post-Ottoman Palestine.

As empires breakup, Great Powers seek to manage the disintegration among

themselves, but regional rivalries and domestic politics come into play to

thwart the designs of the Powers. Working Hypothesis: External powers,

regional rivalry, and domestic politics are factors that help explain

nationalism and likelihood of conflict and momentum in the peace process.

Security Dilemma: A structural security dilemma as a situation in which

the security of each state requires the insecurity of others. A perceptual

security dilemma occurs when decision-makers overrate the advantages of

the offensive, or the hostility of others because of misperception. World

War I had a series of interlocking perceptual security dilemmas: Leaders

in the Triple Entente and Dual Alliance overrated the advantages of going

on the offensive and overestimated the threat from the opposing alliance.

Triple Entente: England, France, Russia; Dual Alliance: Austro-Hungary and

Germany, plus Ottoman Empire, the sick man of Europe

Lesson of World War I: Reinforcing deterrence may lead to unintended

escalation when the parties are in a perceptual security dilemma. The

pattern of unintended escalation found its way to miscalculated escalation

in the 1967 War and but not in the calculated escalation in 1956 war, nor

in the 1973 war.

Maps of the Middle East:

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/Libs/PCL/Map_collection/middle_east_and_asia/Middle_

East_95.jpg

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/Libs/PCL/Map_collection/Atlas_middle_east/Atlas_

middle_east.html

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/Libs/PCL/Map_collection/Atlas_middle_east/Iraq_econ.

jpg

Maps on Transparencies: Congressional Quarterly Map of the Middle East,

regarding Suez Canal Sea Link and Middle East as Land Bridge between

Europe and Asia; Islam and Religious Sects; the Fertile Crescent between

the Dry Nile Valley and Mesopotamia; Crude Oil Fields; Petroleum and

Pipelines; Sparse Populations; Immigration Patterns; Israel and the

Strategic Value of Height, Depth, and Soft Sea Sand in the Sinai--Invasion

Routes along Coasts and via the Sinai Passes.

Strategic Interests: Value depends on significance in a military situation

like who controls high ground or sea lanes in a crisis; value depends on

interpretation of control regarding reputation, resolve, commitment.

Intrinsic Interests: Value inherently tied to an object like oil, life,

and food.

Middle East has strategic and intrinsic value for competing actors. It is

hot property.

QUESTION: What is the role of the great monotheistic religions, such as

Islam, Christianity, and Judaism, in the Arab-Israeli conflict?

Even at height of Islam, large Jewish communities throughout the empire as

protected peoples. Mohammed tried to take best elements of both Judaism

and Christianity in creation of Islam. He was disappointed that the Jews

and Christians did not follow him. Arab-Israel conflict not at base a

religious conflict. More religious conflict historically between

Christianity and Judaism and between Christianity and Islam than between

Islam and Judaism.

Politicians like Ayatollah Khomeni use religion as a weapon in political

struggles for supremacy.

Religion growing as a source of conflict within ethnic groups as conflict

between ethnic groups declines. Conflict within Israel between secular and

religious zealots. Conflict within Palestinian community between secular

authorities and Islamists.

Arab-Israel conflict as a series of wars is declining in favor of

conflicts within and between groups based on religious authority.