APPENDIX- ENDNOTES 1 Tanter, Raymond, ÒDeterrence and Coercion: 472NOT8.DOCÓ, Confer Notes, PS472, University of Michigan, September 21, 1995 2 Lebow, Richard Ned, Psychology and Deterrence, c. 1985, The Johns Hopkins University Press, page 182 3 Quattrone, George A., Tversky, Amos, ÒContradicting Rational and Psychological Analysis of Political ChoiceÓ, American Political Science Review, September 1988, Vol. 82, No. 3, page 719 4 Tanter, Raymond, ÒRational Decision Making: Efficiency of Choice and Reasonableness of Estimates: 472NOT1.DOCÓ, Confer Notes, PS472, University of Michigan, September 11, 1995 5 Tanter, Raymond, ÒFourth Wave Deterrence: Psychology of DeterrenceÓ, Confer Notes, PS472, University of Michigan, October 5, 1994 6 Jervis, Robert, Psychology and Deterrence, c. 1985, The Johns Hopkins University Press, Ch. 1 7 ibid, pages 18-24 8 ibid, pages 24-31 9 Tanter, Raymond, ÒFourth Wave Critique of Deterrence TheoryÓ, Confer Notes, PS472, University of Michigan, October 12, 1994 10 Jervis, Robert, Psychology and Deterrence, c. 1985, The Johns Hopkins University Press, page 9 11 ibid, page 7 12 Cumings, Bruce, ÒDivided Korea: United Future?Ó, Headline Series, Spring 1994, vol. 306, pages 25-28 13 Sublette, Carey, ÒNuclear Danger ZoneÓ, (via INTERNET: http://catalog.com/kimsoft/korea/kr- nuke.htm) 14 Stein, Janice Gross, Psychology and Deterrence, c. 1985, The Johns Hopkins University Press, page 39 15 Su, Tieting, ÒThree Logics of ÔMajor Power RivalryÕ in the World System- A Footnote to a Pentagon studyÓ, Journal of World Systems Research, 1995, Vol. 1, No. 10, page 2 (via INTERNET: http;//csf.colorado.edu/wsystems/jwsr/vol1/v1_na.htm) 16 ibid, pages 5 and 17 17 Christopher, Warren, ÒAmericaÕs Strategy for a Peaceful and Prosperous Asia-PacificÓ, US Department of State, July 31, 1995, Vol. 6, No. 31, Article 1 (via INTERNET: gopher://dosfan.ib.uic.edu:70/OF- 1%3A14924%3ADispatch%20v.6%20n.31-7/31/95) 18 Lord, Winston, Ò96/03/19 Testimony: Winston Lord on Policy Toward Korean PeninsulaÓ, US Department of State, March 3, 1996 (via INTERNET: gopher://dosfan.lib.uic.edu:70/OF- 1%3A18179%3A96/03/19Testimony) 19 ÒThe White House Issues its Major Report on the National Security StrategyÓ (via INTERNET: http://www.uga.edu/~cits/monit2-8.htm1) 20 Clinton, William, ÒRemarks by the President at Asian American Pacific Caucus DinnerÓ, The White House Office of the Press Secretary, May 16, 1996 (via INTERNET: http://library.whitehouse.gov/Retrieve.cgi?dbtype=text&id=6814) 21 Reuter, Confer Notes (item 30): North Korea, May 21, 1996 22 ÒDoes S. Korea Want War with N. KoreaÓ (via INTERNET: http://catalog.com/kimsoft/korea/sk- war.htm) 23 ÒUnited States-North Korean Agreed Framework: What it Means for US; What it Means for SeoulÓ Senate, January 5, 1995 (via INTERNET: http://rs9.loc.gov/cgi- bin/query/1?r104:./temp/~r1046P7e:e3835:trading+with+enemy+act+north+korea) 24 Williams, Phil, Security in Korea, 1994, Westview Press 25 Suh, H. Kyo, ÒKorean War Armistice RevisitedÓ, June 25, 1995 (via INTERNET: http://catalog.com/kimsoft/korea/armist.htm) 26 Zakharchenko, Ivan, ÒUS and S Korea continue Anti-Pyongyang Military ExercisesÓ, December 8, 1995, Korea Watch, April 1996, Article 5 (via INTERNET: http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~vlb94001/watch.htm1) 27 Ò0770???- Aerial espionage and war maneuvers against NorthÓ, (via INTERNET: http://kimsoft.com/news/960607) 28 ÒIs North Korea About to CollapseÓ, April, 1996 (via INTERNET: http://catalog.com/kimsoft/korea/nk- 401.htm) 29 ÒThe Korea Peace Talk - Will it Fly: updates 4/27/96 30 ÒSouth Korea Places Troops on Enhanced AlertÓ, December 7, 1995, Korea Watch, April 1996, Article 4 (via INTERNET: http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~vlb94001/watch.htm1) 31 ÒThe Korea Peace Talk- Will it Fly: updates 4/27/96 32 Clinton, William, ÒRemarks by the President Clinton and President Kim Yong-Sam of South KoreaÓ, The White House, Office of the Press Secretary, November 23, 1993 (via INTERNET: gopher://ftp.tamu.edu:70/ORG-19497-/.data/politics/1993/kim.1123) 33 Clinton, William, ÒRemarks by the President at Asian American Pacific Caucus DinnerÓ, The White House Office of the Press Secretary, May 16, 1996 (via INTERNET: http://library.whitehouse.gov/Retrieve.cgi?dbtype=text&id=6814) 34 Bailey, Russell N., Class Notes, PS472, University of Michigan 35 ÒAmmendment No. 2712 to Agreed FrameworkÓ , Senate, September 20, 1995 (via INTERNET: http://rs9.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/1?r104:./temp/~r1046P7e:e285) 36 Ò1995 Patterns of Global TerrorismÓ, US Department of State, April 1996, (via INTERNET: gopher://dosfan.lib.uic.edu:70/OF-1%3A6969%3A1995%20Report) 37 Tanter, Raymond, ÒProspectus for Publication: Rogue RegimesÓ, May 14, 1996, (via INTERNET: http://www-personal.umich.edu/~rtanter/prospect.htm1) 38 Hayes, Peter, ÒTools of the Trade: US Nuclear Weapons and North KoreaÓ, Nautilus Bulletin, Vol. 3, Issue 1, (via INTERNET http://www.essential.org/nautilus/bulletin/bltin2chtm.1) 39 Rang, Lee Wha, ÒNorth Korean Nuclear ArsenalÓ, April 27, 1996 (via INTERNET: http://catalog.com/kimsoft/korea/nk-nukes.htm) 40 ÒUnited States-North Korean Agreed Framework: What it Means for US; What it Means for SeoulÓ Senate, January 5, 1995 (via INTERNET: http://rs9.loc.gov/cgi- bin/query/1?r104:./temp/~r1046P7e:e3835:trading+with+enemy+act+north+korea) 41 Lord, Winston, ÒUS Policy Toward North KoreaÓ, US Department of State, February 8, 1996 (via INTERNET: gopher://dosfan.lib.uic.edu:70/OF-1%3A18179%3A96/02/08%20Address) 42 Eberstadt, Nicholas, Korea Approaches Reunification, c. 1995, The National Bureau of Asian Research, page 146 43 Lord, Winston, Ò96/03/19 Testimony: Winston Lord on Policy Toward Korean PeninsulaÓ, US Department of State, March 3, 1996 (via INTERNET: gopher://dosfan.lib.uic.edu:70/OF- 1%3A18179%3A96/03/19Testimony) 44 Burns, Nicholas, ÒUS Dept. of State Briefing on N KoreaÓ, US Department of State, May 5, 1996, (via INTERNET: http://catalog.com/kimsoft/korea/US0518.htm) 45 ÒSouth Korea Places Troops on Enhanced AlertÓ, December 7, 1995, Korea Watch, April 1996, Article 4 (via INTERNET: http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~vlb94001/watch.htm1) 46 ÒSouth Korea Steps Up Guard Against Unusual Moves in NorthÓ, December, 13, 1995, Korea Watch, April 1996, Article 8 (via INTERNET: http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~vlb94001/watch.htm1) 47 ÒAn Update on Tensions on the Korean PeninsulaÓ, April 30, 1995, Korea Watch, April 1996, Article 2 (via INTERNET: http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~vlb94001/watch.htm1) 48 ÒText of North Korean Statement on Armistice and DMZÓ, April 4, 1996, Korea Watch, April 1996, (via INTERNET: http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~vlb94001/watch.htm1) 49 Erlanger, Steven, ÒÔNorth KoreaÕs DMZ Message is a MysteryÕ US SaysÓ, April 10, 1996, Korea Watch, April 1996, (via INTERNET: http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~vlb94001/watch.htm1) 50 ÒDefense Official Says Soldiers from North Dug Trenches in DMZÓ, April 10, 1996, Korea Watch, April 1996, (via INTERNET: http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~vlb94001/watch.htm1) 51 ÒPyongyang Urges Young Men to Enlist in the ArmyÓ, April 10, 1996, Korea Watch, April 1996, (via INTERNET: http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~vlb94001/watch.htm1) 52 Kahneman, Daniel and Tversky, Amos, ÒProspect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under RiskÓ, Econometrica, 1979, vol. 47, pages 263-291 53 Levy, Jack, ÒProspect Theory and International Relations: Theoretical Applications and Analytical ProblemsÓ, Political Psychology, 1992, Vol. 13, No. 2, pages 286-7 54 Lebow, Richard Ned, Psychology and Deterrence, c. 1985, The Johns Hopkins University Press, pages 180-4 55 ibid, page 182 56 Maxwell, David S., ÒCatastrophic Collapse of North Korea Implications for the United States MilitaryÓ (via INTERNET: http://catalog.com/kimsoft/korea/maxwell.htm); ÒShortages May Topple North Korea; Troop Dispatch Prompts Fear of Last-Gasp InvasionÓ, April 9, 1996, Korea Watch, April 1996, (via INTERNET: http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~vlb94001/watch.htm1) 57 Maxwell, David S., ÒCatastrophic Collapse of North Korea Implications for the United States MilitaryÓ (via INTERNET: http://catalog.com/kimsoft/korea/maxwell.htm) 58 Deutch, John M., ÒWorldwide threat Assessment Brief to the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence by the Director of Central Intelligence, John M. DeutchÓ, February 22, 1996, (via INTERNET: http://www.odci.gov/cia//public_affairs/speeches/dci_speech_022296.htm1) 59 Eberstadt, Nicholas, Korea Approaches Reunification, c. 1995, The National Bureau of Asian Research, page 134 60 Maxwell, David S., ÒCatastrophic Collapse of North Korea Implications for the United States MilitaryÓ (via INTERNET: http://catalog.com/kimsoft/korea/maxwell.htm) 61 ÒNorth Korean News-May 10, 1996Ó, May 10, 1996 (via INTERNET: http://catalog.com/kimsoft/korea/kcna-58.htm) 62 Levy, Jack, ÒProspect Theory and International Relations: Theoretical Applications and Analytical ProblemsÓ, Political Psychology, 1992, Vol. 13, No. 2, page 287 63 Macko, Steve and Staten, Clark, ÒHow N Korea Would Invade S KoreaÓ, The American Reporter, May 22, 1996, No. 293 (via INTERNET: http://catalog.com/kimsoft/korea/nk-army.htm) 64 Erlanger, Steven, ÒÔNorth KoreaÕs DMZ Message is a MysteryÕ US SaysÓ, April 10, 1996, Korea Watch, April 1996, (via INTERNET: http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~vlb94001/watch.htm1) 65 ÒAn Update on Tensions on the Korean PeninsulaÓ, April 30, 1995, Korea Watch, April 1996, Article 2 (via INTERNET: http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~vlb94001/watch.htm1) 66 ÒNorth Korea Warns Against US Military AdventurismÓ, December 12, 1995, Korea Watch, Article 13, April 1996, (via INTERNET: http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~vlb94001/watch.htm1) 67 Glain, Steve, ÒNorth Korean Reactor Dispute Drives Wedge Between Two Allies; As Seoul Toughens Stance Toward Pyongyang, US Advocates CompromiseÓ WSJ, March 27, 1995, Sec. A, page 16 68 Simon, Paul, ÒNorth KoreaÓ, Senate Congressional Record, March 14, 1995, (via INTERNET: http://rs9.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/12?r104:./temp/~r1046P7e::trading+with+enemy+act+north+korea) 69 Levy, Jack, ÒProspect Theory and International Relations: Theoretical Applications and Analytical ProblemsÓ, Political Psychology, 1992, Vol. 13, No. 2, page 287 70 Jervis, Robert, ÒPolitical Implications of Loss AversionÓ, Political Psychology, 1992, Vol. 13, No. 2, page 192 71 Levy, Jack, ÒProspect Theory and International Relations: Theoretical Applications and Analytical ProblemsÓ, Political Psychology, 1992, Vol. 13, No. 2, page 303 72 ÒNorth Korean News-May 10, 1996Ó, May 10, 1996 (via INTERNET: http://catalog.com/kimsoft/korea/kcna-58.htm) 73 ÒAn Update on Tensions on the Korean PeninsulaÓ, April 30, 1995, Korea Watch, April 1996, Article 2 (via INTERNET: http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~vlb94001/watch.htm1) 74 Lebow, Richard Ned, Psychology and Deterrence, c. 1985, The Johns Hopkins University Press, page 181 75 Macko, Steve and Staten, Clark, ÒHow N Korea Would Invade S KoreaÓ, The American Reporter, May 22, 1996, No. 293 (via INTERNET: http://catalog.com/kimsoft/korea/nk-army.htm) 76 Lebow, Richard Ned, Psychology and Deterrence, c. 1985, The Johns Hopkins University Press, page 182 77 ÒFood Aid for North KoreaÓ Senate Congressional Record, May 22, 1996, (via INTERNET: http://rs9.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/31?r104:./temp/~r1046P7e::trading+with+enemy+act+north+korea) 78 Lebow, Richard Ned, Psychology and Deterrence, c. 1985, The Johns Hopkins University Press, page 193 79 ibid, page 183 80 ÒAn Update on Tensions on the Korean PeninsulaÓ, April 30, 1995, Korea Watch, April 1996, Article 2 (via INTERNET: http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~vlb94001/watch.htm1) 81 Jervis, Robert, ÒPolitical Implications of Loss AversionÓ, Political Psychology, 1992, Vol. 13, No. 2, page 192 82 ÒAn Update on Tensions on the Korean PeninsulaÓ, April 30, 1995, Korea Watch, April 1996, Article 2 (via INTERNET: http://www.ucc.uconn.edu/~vlb94001/watch.htm1) 83 ÒBackground Briefing By Senior Administration OfficialsÓ, White House Press Release, April 16, 1996 84 Clapper, James R., ÒThe Worldwide Threat to US InterestsÓ, January 17, 1995, (via INTERNET: http://catalog.com/kimsoft/korea/clapper.htm 85 Laney, James T., ÒRemarks by James T. Laney US Ambassador to KoreaÓ, US Department of State, May 3, 1995 (via INTERNET: gopher://dosfan.lib.uic.edu:70/OF- 1%3A18179%3A95/05/03%20Remarks%20Amb 86 Lewis, Ron, ÒNorth Korean IntentionsÓ, April 7, 1996 (via INTERNET: http://catalog.com/kimsoft/korea/nk-ron.htm) 87 Jervis, Robert, Psychology and Deterrence, c. 1985, The Johns Hopkins University Press, page 23 88 Eberstadt, Nicholas, Korea Approaches Reunification, c. 1995, The National Bureau of Asian Research, page 130 89 Tanter, Raymond, ÒFourth Wave Critique of Deterrence TheoryÓ, Confer Notes, PS472, University of Michigan, October 12, 1994 90 Cumings, Bruce, ÒDivided Korea: United Future?Ó, Headline Series, Spring 1994, vol. 306, pages 77-8 91 Lebow, Richard Ned, Psychology and Deterrence, c. 1985, The Johns Hopkins University Press, page 187 92 Jervis, Robert, ÒPolitical Implications of Loss AversionÓ, Political Psychology, 1992, Vol. 13, No. 2, page 194