Wed, 9 Oct 1996 12:11:21 -0400 (EDT)
472not20.doc
BALANCE OF POWER

A key concept in the balance of power literature is the balancer--a nation
that remains aloof from the rivalries of others. Its interests are best
served if the international balance of power is maintained, and
consequently, as long as the other nations are in balance, the balancer
does not intervene. If, however, one side gains enough strength to tip the
scales, the balancer acts, joining the weaker side and bringing the scales
back into Balance. See Kenneth Organski, WORLD POLITICS, Inis Claude,
INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATION, Henry Kissinger, DIPLOMACY.

The maintenance of a balance of power by the moves of a balancer would
preserve the independence of small nations that would probably be
swallowed up if one ambitious state were allowed to achieve a tremendous
preponderance of power.

The balancer is always a great power. Nicholas Spykman as quoted by Claude
states that nations are interested only in a balance which is in their
favor. Not an equilibrium, but a generous margin is their objective. The
balance desired is the one that neutralizes other states, leaving the home
state free to be the deciding force and the deciding voice.

The balance of power is grounded in the basic concept of deterrence. It
manages power and policy situations in a pluralistic world of independent
states in such a fashion that potential disturbers of the peace are kept
in check by the threat that their trouble-making enterprises will be
defected.

To focus in on Turkey. Turkey now will be able to shape its foreign policy
based on these concepts of balance of power. Turkey can play the balancer
in the region of the former Soviet republics, the Caucasus, and to a
degree the Middle East. When Turkey signed an accord with Israel to allow
Israeli military aircraft to use its airspace, that served to balance
Syrias power with that of Israel for Turkey. It is vital that regions in
the vicinity of Turkey exist in harmony. Turkey has vital interests
extending its power in each of these regions. It has several gas pipelines
stemming from several of these regions. In order, to safeguard such Turkey
needs to maintain the status-quo. Further, as Turkey is in a position of
reassessment itself, it would not be to Turkey's interest for the Turkish
Republics to fight amongst themselves, as Turkey aspires to create strong
relations with this region based on a Turkish Bloc.

Armenia vs. Azerbaijan: A balance needs to be maintained in  which neither
Christian Armenia or predominant Shiite Azerbaijan will have a strong
foothold in the region. The success of Armenia may invite tensions between
Islamic republics and Christian ones, while A successful Azerbaijan may
invite an increase of Iranian penetration into the region.

Iran: Turkey has for decades illustrated itself as a modern Islamic state,
where there is a strict division between Islam and the state. Turkey thus
views Iranian attempts to infiltrate the Turkish republics as a major
concern. In order to balance Iran, Turkey has limited Syrian water
supplies. Because Syria has long been suspected of aiding Iranian agents
seeking to destabilize Turkey, limiting water may be seen as a measure in
which Turkey has employed to keep Syria and Iran in check.

Iraq: Iraq has become quite accustomed to pushing its Kurdish minority
into Turkey, which has become a key debate for Turkey in Western circles.
The limiting of water to Iraq may also be viewed as a balancing tactic.

Aid to the Turkic Republics of the former USSR: Thus far Turkey has
designed aid packages that have been distributed to the Republics. Such
aid should assist the Republics balanced and in pursuit of their
development agendas, instead of internal problems. The Establishment of
the Black Sea Economic Cooperation Zone-can also be seen as an effort to
maintain the balance in this region. Considering the unrest in the Balkans
and Caucuses, at least for the moment, BSECZ presents the most significant
multinational framework in which conflicting states can find a forum where
they can discus their differences and seek common economic security.

Although the balancer needs to be a great power, Turkey is not a major
player in the world scene. Nevertheless, its regional location allows
Ankara to play a major role in Europe, the Middle East, and Southwest
Asia. Therefore, Turkey needs to maintain close ties with the U.S.,
Europe, and key Middle East states like Israel, to be an effective
balancer across regions.