472NOT13.DOC September 8, 1996 Foreign Policy Decision-Making Three Theoretical Approaches Stand Out In The Study Of Foreign Policy: Rational Choice; Bounded Rationality; And Conceptual Frameworks. Rational Choice The First Focuses On General Concepts Like Rationality (Morgenthau, 1960; Schelling, 1960; Verba, 1961; Stein And Tanter, 1980). This Approach Advises Us To Look At External Threats And Opportunities With Minimum Attention To Internal Characteristics Of Other Actors. It Even Black Boxes The Others: In Assuming They Will Seek Rewards And Avoid Punishment, This Approach Declines To Look Within A Make-Believe Box That Contains Actor Characteristics. Perhaps Because The First Approach Draws On The Power Of Simplifying Assumptions Like Rationality, It Spends Too Little Time Accumulating Empirical Information. In The Study Foreign Policy Decision-Making, It Is Important To Refrain >From Making Simplifying Assumptions Known To Be False. In This Respect, There Is Considerable Evidence For A Bounded Rational Decision Process. So, There Is Little Need To Black Box The Actor--Bureaucracy And Its Leadership. An Early Rational Choice Theorist--Thomas Schelling-- Used Evidence In An Anecdotal Fashion--To Illustrate Rather Than Verify Ideas About Resolve, Commitment, And Credibility. Despite This Shortcoming, His Theorizing Began A Wave Of Thinking In The Field. Schelling Is A Seminal Theorist Who Pioneered The Strategic Studies Field. By Contrast, Empirical Studies Use Evidence To Confirm Or Reject Hypotheses. Bounded Rationality A Second Approach To Foreign Policy Decision-Making Investigates Departures From Rationality Because Of Factors Like Perceived Controllability And Calculability Of Risk (George And Smoke, 1974; Cognitive Limitations On Information Processing Like Misperception Due To Wishful Thinking (Jervis, Lebow, And Stein, 1985) And Bureaucratic Politics (Snyder, Bruck, And Sapin, 1962; Paige, 1968; Allison And Halperin, 1972; Tanter, 1990). This Approach Instructs Us To Look At Internal Attributes Of Actors That May Bias Perception Of Threat And Opportunity. Thus, Constraints On Rational Processing Of Information And Choice Are Plentiful. In Particular, Cognitive Beliefs About Major Events Facilitate Misperception And Thus Act As Constraints On Decision-Making. Conceptual Frameworks A Third Approach Uses Conceptual Frameworks To Suggest Variables Relevant To The Explanation Of Foreign Policy Decision-Making (Rosenau, 1966; Brecher, Steinberg, And Stein, 1969; Brecher, 1972.) James Rosenau And Michael Brecher Developed Typologies For The Study Of Foreign Policy That May Be Prove Useful To Present Inquiries. Rosenau (1966, P. 48) Suggested A Ranking For Sources Of Foreign Policy In A Large, Developed, Open Country: Role, Societal, Governmental, Systemic, And Idiosyncratic Variables Are The Order Of Importance He Assumed In His Framework. One Of The Goals Of Empirical Studies Should Be To Treat Such Assumptions As Hypotheses To Be Examined. Because Of The Limitations Of Using Single Cases For Hypothesis Testing, However, The Research Purpose Should Be More Modest Than Testing. For Example, Consider The Goal Of Only To Provide Evidence In Support Or Against But Not To Confirm Or Reject Hypotheses. Brecher Improved On The Rosenau Framework And Suggested Other Hypotheses. Brecher (1972, P. 3) Distinguished Between The Operational And Psychological Environment Of Decision-Makers. In The Former, He Divided The External From The Internal Environment. External Variables Include Global, Regional, Dominant Bilateral, And Bilateral Relationships. Institutions Like The United Nations Are A Part Of The Global System; United States Relations With A Particular Country May Constitute A Dominant Bilateral Relationship. And Brechers Internal Environment Includes Variables Like Military And Economic Capability, Political Structure, Interest Groups, And Competing Elites. But His Psychological Environment Offers A Rich Source Of Explanations. He Includes Ideology, Historical Legacy, Personality, And Predispositions. Because Of The Holocaust Against European Jewry, For Example, It Is Difficult For A Country Like Modern Day Germany To Make Value Trade-Offs In A Rational Decision Making Process. In The Context Of A Movement Towards Arab-Israel Peace, However, There Is Less Of A Perceived Need To Make Such Trade-Offs. To The Degree That It Is Feasible, Empirical Studies Should Treat Such Assumptions As Hypotheses To Be Tested Or At Least Clarified. Hypotheses To Be Examined One Of The Problems With The Conceptual Framework Approach Is That It Tends To Provide A Mere Listing Of Categories Rather Than Hypotheses To Be Analyzed. Brecher, However, Offers A Series Of Hypotheses For Each Of His Categories. In Brecher (1975, Pp. 518-581), There Are Six Hypotheses Of Relevance To An Empirical Study. Decision-Makers Tend To Fit Incoming Information Into Their Existing Images. In Other Words, Actors Tend To Perceive What They Expect (Brecher, 1975, P. 529). Decision-Makers Perceive Their Own Subordinate System As The Level Of The International System Most Directly Impinging On Their Vital Questions Of Security (Brecher, 1975, P. 535). To The Extent That Decision-Makers Of Developed States Perceive Their Internal Environment, They Attach Greatest Importance To The Advocacy By Competing Elites And Interest Groups (Brecher, 1975, P. 537). Decision-Makers From Developed States Are More Aware Of Pressure From Interest Groups Than From Competing Elites (Brecher, 1975, P. 540). Elites In Developed States Attach Greater Weight To The External Than To Internal Variables (Brecher, 1975, P. 541). The Much Publicized View That Maximization Of Power, Defined As Military And Economic Capability, Is The Chief Motivating Factor In State Behavior Is Invalid For Middle Powers (Brecher, 1975, P. 546). In Addition To Hypotheses Associated With The Conceptual Framework Of Brecher, The Bounded Rationality Approach Could Be A Source Of Hypotheses. Bibliography Allison, Graham And Morton Halperin, Bureaucratic Politics, A Paradigm And Some Policy Implications, In R. Tanter And R. Ullman, Eds. Theory And Policy In International Relations. Princeton. Princeton Press, 1972. Brecher, Michael, Blema Steinberg, And Janice Stein. A Framework For Research On Foreign Policy Behavior, Journal Of Conflict Behavior, Xiii, I, March, 1969, Pp. 75-101. George, Alexander And Richard Smoke. Deterrence In American Foreign Policy. New York: Columbia University Press, 1974. Jervis, Robert, Richard Lebow, And Janice Stein. Eds. Psychology And Deterrence. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins Press, 1985. Morgenthau, Hans. Politics Among Nations. 3rd Edition, New York, 1960. Paige, Glenn. The Korean Decision. New York: Free Press, 1968. Rosenau, James N. Pre-Theories And Theories Of Foreign Policy, In R. Barry Farrell Ed. Approaches To Comparative And International Politics. Evanston IL: Northwestern University Press, 1966, 27-92. Schelling, Thomas. Arms And Influence. New Haven: Yale University Press, 1966. Snyder, Richard C. H.W. Bruck, And Burton Sapin, Eds. Foreign Policy Decision-Making. New York: Free Press, 1962. Stein, Janice And Raymond Tanter, Rational Decision-Making. Columbus Oh: Ohio State University Press, 1980. Tanter, Raymond. Whos At The Helm? Boulder Co: Westview Press, 1990.