472NOT12.DOC					September 8, 1996

Psychology And Deterrence

Stimulus Response Theory Of Learning And Classical Deterrence Theory: S-R;
Threat-Compliance.

Mediated Stimulus Response And Cognitive Theories Bring In Characteristics
Of The Individual As An Intervening Variable Between The Stimulus And The
Response: S-O-R, Where O Is The Organism Or Person. Schelling Like S-R
Type.

Classical Deterrence Theory: Leaders Leap Through Windows Of Opportunity. 

4th Wavers: Leaders Turn Inward Into Basements Of Felt Need And Fears
Rather Than Through Windows Of Opportunity. Windows Are Illusions.	

Classical Theory Of Deterrence Is Psychologically Bankrupt, But The
Psychological Theory Is Pragmatically Bankrupt And Thus Irrelevant To
Policy.

People Engage In Wishful Thinking Instead Of Rational Information
Processing.

According To The 4th Wavers, Classical Theory Of Deterrence Is
Psychologically Refuted. 

Deterrence Means To Terrorize. But What If The Potential Challenger Is So
Frightened That This Person Strikes Back Instead Of Being Deterred? 

Consider A Car Jacking Incident: Two Volunteers To Front Of The Class To
Illustrate A Car Jacking In Action.

Potential Car Jacker Approaches Your Auto. You Scream And Threaten To
Shoot. The Car Jacker Panics, Shoots First, And You Die. Was Your
Deterrent Threat Effective? What Are Ways In Which You Would Have Acted To
Deter The Car Jacker? How About Search, Persuasion, And Strategy?

How Would Knowledge Of The Waves Of Deterrence Theory Assist You In
Achieving Your Goals? What Are Your Goals? What Is The Possibility Of
Conducting A Rational Decision When Confronted With A Car Jacking?

Schelling Black Boxes Characteristics Of People And Assumes That They Will
Act Rationally.

Jervis Concerned With Bias In Information Processing That Affects Threat
Perception. Unmotivated Predispositions And Motivated Bias--Inference Used
As Defense Mechanisms--Protection Against Knowledge Of Risk.

Unmotivated Biases Are Short-Cuts To Rationality Like Inattention To Base
Rates. People Pay Insufficient Attention To The Overall Frequency Of
Events And Pay Too Much Attention To The Vividness Of Some Case From The
Recent Past Or That Occurred In The Formative Years Of The Persons.  For
Example, The Munich Analogy Blows Away Other Evidence Relevant To Threat
Perception.

Motivated Biases Example: Japanese Leaders Assumed That The U.S. Would
Withdraw From The Pacific After The Attack At Pearl Harbor Because The
Japanese Did Not Wish To Confront The Possiblity Of War With The U.S. 
The Japanese Were Motivated By The Desire Not To See War If They Assaulted 
Pearl Harbor. The Japanese Failed To Believe Intelligence To The Contrary.