472NOT10.DOC					September 8, 1996

Decision Theory

	Individual Choice

	Interdependent Choices

Constrained Rationality

	Bargaining Theory: Search, Persuasion, Strategy

Individual Choice

	Decision Analysis Tree

Interdependent Choices: Snyder, Axelrod

	Game Theory, Dollar Auction Game, Prisoners Dilemma

	Chicken, Critical Risk

Waves Of Deterrence Theory

	Imbalance Of Power

	Credibility Of Threat

	Controllability And Calculability Of Risk

	Misperception Of Threat And Bureaucratic Politics

Deterrence Theorists

	Morgenthau: Power

	Schelling: Credibility, Resolve, Commitment

	George & Smoke: Initiator Control Of Risk, Perception
	Of Defenders Commitment 

	Blechman & Kaplan: Assure & Deter: Reinforce Behavior;
		Compel & Induce: Modify Behavior

	Jervis, Lebow, & Stein: Misperception And Escalation

	Pape: Balance Of Resolve & Balance Of Interests,
	Vulnerability Of Civilians & Balance Of Forces