472NOT08.txt					8 September 96 
	
Bureaucratic Politics

Bureaucratic Politics Approaches Are A Fifth Wave Type Of Explanations.
How? First, Consider Three Types Of Questions That Assume Rational Action
By A Purposeful, Unitary Actor Acting In Its Perceived National Interest:
	"Why Did Iraq Invade Kuwait In Aug. 90?" Demands An Explanation. 
	"Will Iran Take Advantage Of Civil War In Iraq To Invade?" Demands
A Prediction.
	"How Can The Clinton Administration Persuade Or Deter Iran From
Invading Iraq?" Requires A Plan.
	Explanation, Prediction, Planning Can Be Accomplished By Assuming
A Purposive Unitary Actor Acting In Its National Interests. Find Out The
Interests, Goals, Calculation Of Consequences Of Alternatives In Terms Of
Costs And Risks Of Each To Explain, Predict, And Plan. What Were Saddam's
Goals, Expectations, Hopes, Fears, And Propensity Towards Risk As A Basis
For Explanation, Prediction, And Planning.
	Try To Marry American Options To Saddam's Assessment Of His Goals,
Alternatives, Consequences, And Choices To Explain, Predict, And Plan
According To Rational Assumptions. But A  Bureaucratic Politics Approach
Relaxes Assumption Of A Unified Government With A Single Overarching
Interest. A Bureaucratic Politics Approach Includes An Assumption Of
Government As A Series Of Bargaining Games Of Players In Position.  They
Compete Over How To Define The National Interest. They Seek To Maximize
Organizational And Personal Interests.
In A Bureaucratic Politics Approach, Players See Different Faces Of
Issues, Propose Competing Ways To Resolve Value Conflicts, And Have
Varying Time Horizons For Action Success. For Example, Explain Saddam's
Invasion From Bureaucratic Perspective, Predict Whether Iran Will Invade
Iraq Undergoing Civil War, And Plan For An American Effort To Persuade Or
Deter Iraq And Iran From Bureaucratic Politics. Unitary Actor Perspective
Useful When National Security Dominates Threat Perception. Lack Of Shared
Values Facilitate The Use Of Bureaucratic Politics Explanations.
	
	A Bureaucratic Politics Approach Assumes That Actor A Can 

Change Actor B Only If A Sends A Clear, Consistent, Simple 

Signal, Some Officials In B Want To Change In The Desired Way, 

A's Signal Enhances Their Power. 

See RTs Who's At The Helm? Boulder: Westview Press, 1990.

The Helm Book Finds That A:
	Lack Of Consensus On The National Security Interests At Stake
Suggested A Bureaucratic Rather Than A Unitary Actor Approach.
	Availability Of Information Within A Black Box Offered An Occasion
For A Bureaucratic Politics Explanation.
	Different Perceptions Of Threat Allowed Officials To Use
Intelligence As A Tool For Bureaucratic Warfare Rather Than As A Method Of
Information Gathering In A Unitary Actor Explanation.