1 Tanter, Raymond, Balance of Power, 472not.20.doc, lecture notes for PS 672, University of Michigan, 8 October 1996 2 The expected utility function posits that decision makers, through an analytical process, determine the optimal choice and pursue that choice. 3 This is known as the endowment effect: Foregone gains are less painful than perceived losses. People demand more to give up an object than they would be willing to pay for that object. (472NOT11.DOC) 4 According to Jack Levy, Prospect Theory and International Relations: Theoretical Application Problems, Political Psychology, Vol. 13, No. 2, pp. 289-303, 1992 : State officials may be tempted to engage in forceful action against external enemies in order... distract attention from domestic politics. The temptation toward such diversionary action may be enhanced by risk acceptant attitudes in the domain of losses created by a deteriorating domestic situation. 5 Tanter, Raymond, Foreign Policy Decision Making, 472NOT13.DOC, University of Michigan, 1996 6 Stein, Arthur A., Why Nations Cooperate: Circumstance and Choice in International Relations, Cornell University Press, 1990, p. 82 7 Ibid, p. 64 8 Ibid, p. 66: Stein states that misperception cannot happen in pure conflict situations -- where one actors gain comes at the others expense. If one actor is motivated by gain, and to achieve his objective conflict with the other actor is the only course of action, misperception, no matter how extreme, will have no effect on the decision made. 9 Ibid, p. 85 10 While free market economy may on the surface appear to be purely intrinsic (the acquiring of money, etc.), in the US context, it is a strategic interest as they see free markets as directly linked to other strategic interests. In Asia, for example, President George Bush advocated the opening-up of Asian economies because that would, in turn, lead to more open and free societies -- which lead to democracy (a stated US strategic interest) as well as the promotion of individual liberty and freedom (again, both US strategic interests). Within the Mid-East context, US interests, as defined by Asst. Sec. State Pelletreau, include securing the region for US businesses as well as advancing respect for human rights, the rule of law and open, participatory societies. 11 Aziz, Tariq, The US Will Change its Policy toward Iraq, but Not Via Israel, Mideast Mirror, 6 September 1994, WWW URL: http://link.lanic.utexas.edu/menic/utaustin/course/oilcourse/mail/iraq/0003.html 12 Haass, Richard N., How Saddam Survives, The Washington Post, 8 September 1996 13 Pelletreau, Robert H., Assistant Secretary for Near Eastern Affairs, statement before the House International Relations Committee, Washington, DC, June 12, 1996, WWW URL: http://www.state.gov/www/regions/nea/960612.html 14 Fisher, Roger and William Ury, Getting to Yes, Penguin Books, 1991, p.22 15 Transcript of meeting between April Glaspie, US Ambassador to Iraq, and Saddam Hussein, President of Iraq. WWW URL: http://www.worldlink.ca/~ahmed/private/desert_st/gulf-war.html 16 Aziz, Tariq, The US Will Change its Policy toward Iraq, but Not Via Israel, Mideast Mirror, 6 September 1994, WWW URL: http://link.lanic.utexas.edu/menic/utaustin/course/oilcourse/mail/iraq/0003.html 17 Ibid 18 The Daily Report, Future News, 18 June 1996, WWW URL: http://data2.dm.net.lb/future/tue18.htm 19 Pelletreau, Robert H., Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, American Objectives in the Middle East, remarks before the CENTCOM Annual Southwest Asia Symposium, Tampa, Florida, May 14, 1996, WWW URL: http://www.state.gov/www/regions/nea/960514.html 20 Pelletreau, Robert H., Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, The Middle East: U.S. Policy and the Search for Peace, remarks before the Town Hall Meeting sponsored by the Institute of World Affairs and the Department of State, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, September 12, 1995, WWW URL: http://www.state.gov/www/regions/nea/950912.html 21 Pelletreau , Robert H., Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs,U.S. Policy Toward the Middle East: Steering a Steady Course, address before the Chautauqua Institution, Chautauqua, New York, August 21, 1996. WWW URL: http://www.state.gov/www/regions/nea/960821.html 22 Pelletreau, Robert H., Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs, The Middle East: U.S. Policy and the Search for Peace, remarks before the Town Hall Meeting sponsored by the Institute of World Affairs and the Department of State, Milwaukee, Wisconsin, September 12, 1995, WWW URL: http://www.state.gov/www/regions/nea/950912.html 23 Transcript of meeting between April Glaspie, US Ambassador to Iraq, and Saddam Hussein, President of Iraq. WWW URL: http://www.worldlink.ca/~ahmed/private/desert_st/gulf-war.html 24 RESOLUTION 678, adopted by the United Nations Security Council, 29 November 1990, WWW URL: gopher://gopher.undp.org:70/00/undocs/scd/scouncil/s90/32 25 Schelling, Thomas, The Diplomacy of Violence, in International Politics: Enduring Concepts and Contemporary Issues, Robert J. Art and Robert Jervis, eds., Harper Collins Publishers, 1992, pp. 117-122 26 Ibid 27 RESOLUTION 661, adopted by the United Nations Security Council, 6 August 1990, WWW URL: gopher://gopher.undp.org:70/00/undocs/scd/scouncil/s90/15 28 RESOLUTION 687, adopted by the United Nations Security Council, 3 April 1991, WWW URL: gopher://gopher.undp.org:70/00/undocs/scd/scouncil/s91/4 29 RESOLUTION 986, adopted by the United Nations Security Council, 14 April 1995, WWW URL: http://www.un.org/plweb-cgi/idoc.pl?94+unix+_free_user_+www.un.org..80+un+un+scres+scres++Iraq 30 Clinton, William J., Statement by the President, The White House, 3 September 1996, WWW URL: http://www.whitehouse.gov/WH/New/html/iraq.html 31 Department of Defense Press Release, 3 September 1996, WWW URL: http://www.dtic.mil/defenselink/news/Sep96/m090396_m190-96.html 32 Department of Defense, Operation Desert Shield/Storm Review, 1992, WWW URL: via DEFENSELINK 33 Clinton, William J., White House Press Release, Statement by the President, Washington, 3 September 1996 WWW URL: via White House Pubs.