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The results on this page EXCLUDE CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED DAILY

New! For the weekly updated  Duke   page with conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 12, 2009.

Duke

Conference:ACC
Expected RPI:2.0
Current RPI:2
Expected SOS:3
Current SOS:3
Current Record:25-6
Expected Record:25-6
Current Conf Record:11-5
Expected Conf Record:11-5
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:4-3
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:2-2
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:9-1
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:7-0
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:3-0
Current OOC Record:14-1
Expected OOC Record:14-1
Expected OOC RPI:3
Expected OOC SOS:42


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-62.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Duke.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-10Presbyterian (215.0)BSthH80-49W100%0.0
11-11Georgia Southern (297.0)SCH97-54W100%0.0
11-16Rhode Island (66.0)A10H82-79W100%0.0
11-20Southern Illinois (145.0)MVCN83-58W100%0.0
11-21Michigan (43.0)B10N71-56W100%0.0
11-23Montana (184.0)BSkyH78-58W100%0.0
11-28Duquesne (78.0)A10H95-72W100%0.0
12-2Purdue (32.0)B10A76-60W100%0.0
12-6Michigan (43.0)B10A73-81L0%0.0
12-17NC Asheville (201.0)BSthH99-56W100%0.0
12-20Xavier (16.0)A10N82-64W100%0.0
12-31Loyola MD (194.0)MAACH92-51W100%0.0
1-4Virginia Tech (56.0)ACCH69-44W100%0.0
1-7Davidson (69.0)SCH79-67W100%0.0
1-10Florida St. (17.0)ACCA66-58W100%0.0
1-14Georgia Tech (133.0)ACCA70-56W100%0.0
1-17Georgetown (57.0)BEH76-67W100%0.0
1-20North Carolina St. (111.0)ACCH73-56W100%0.0
1-24Maryland (63.0)ACCH85-44W100%0.0
1-28Wake Forest (10.0)ACCA68-70L0%0.0
2-1Virginia (110.0)ACCH79-54W100%0.0
2-4Clemson (26.0)ACCA47-74L0%0.0
2-7Miami FL (62.0)ACCH78-75W100%0.0
2-11North Carolina (3.0)ACCH87-101L0%0.0
2-15Boston College (55.0)ACCA74-80L0%0.0
2-19St. John's (156.0)BEA76-69W100%0.0
2-22Wake Forest (10.0)ACCH101-91W100%0.0
2-25Maryland (63.0)ACCA78-67W100%0.0
2-28Virginia Tech (56.0)ACCA72-65W100%0.0
3-3Florida St. (17.0)ACCH84-81W100%0.0
3-8North Carolina (3.0)ACCA71-79L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations