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The results on this page EXCLUDE CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED DAILY

New! For the weekly updated  Butler   page with conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 12, 2009.

Butler

Conference:Horz
Expected RPI:22.0
Current RPI:22
Expected SOS:89
Current SOS:89
Current Record:25-5
Expected Record:25-5
Current Conf Record:16-4
Expected Conf Record:16-4
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-0
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:10-2
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:4-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:9-1
Current OOC Record:9-1
Expected OOC Record:9-1
Expected OOC RPI:2
Expected OOC SOS:13


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
25-522.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Butler.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-15Drake (167.0)MVCA58-48W100%0.0
11-19Ball St. (262.0)MACH64-55W100%0.0
11-26Northwestern (72.0)B10H57-53W100%0.0
11-29Evansville (95.0)MVCH75-59W100%0.0
12-4Cleveland St. (54.0)HorzA50-48W100%0.0
12-6Youngstown St. (240.0)HorzA79-71W100%0.0
12-10Bradley (99.0)MVCA87-75W100%0.0
12-13Ohio St. (35.0)B10A51-54L0%0.0
12-20Florida Gulf Coast (310.0)ASunH73-53W100%0.0
12-23Xavier (16.0)A10A74-65W100%0.0
12-30UAB (44.0)CUSAH72-68W100%0.0
1-3Valparaiso (261.0)HorzA75-62W100%0.0
1-8Wright St. (94.0)HorzH64-48W100%0.0
1-10Detroit (281.0)HorzH54-50W100%0.0
1-15Loyola Chicago (216.0)HorzA78-55W100%0.0
1-17Illinois Chicago (166.0)HorzA59-52W100%0.0
1-22Wisconsin Green Bay (71.0)HorzH68-59W100%0.0
1-24Wisconsin Milwaukee (134.0)HorzH78-48W100%0.0
1-30Valparaiso (261.0)HorzH59-51W100%0.0
2-2Wisconsin Green Bay (71.0)HorzA66-75L0%0.0
2-5Detroit (281.0)HorzA66-61W100%0.0
2-7Wright St. (94.0)HorzA69-51W100%0.0
2-13Illinois Chicago (166.0)HorzH80-61W100%0.0
2-15Loyola Chicago (216.0)HorzH67-71L0%0.0
2-18Wisconsin Milwaukee (134.0)HorzA60-63L0%0.0
2-21Davidson (69.0)SCA75-63W100%0.0
2-26Youngstown St. (240.0)HorzH78-57W100%0.0
2-28Cleveland St. (54.0)HorzH58-56W100%0.0
3-7Wright St. (94.0)HorzH62-57W100%0.0
3-10Cleveland St. (54.0)HorzH54-57L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations