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The results on this page EXCLUDE CONFERNCE TOURNAMENT FORECASTS and are UPDATED DAILY

New! For the weekly updated  Arkansas   page with conference tournament forecasts, click here.

Through games of Mar 12, 2009.

Arkansas

Conference:SEC
Expected RPI:144.0
Current RPI:144
Expected SOS:71
Current SOS:71
Current Record:14-16
Expected Record:14-16
Current Conf Record:2-15
Expected Conf Record:2-15
Expected Record vs RPI 1-25:1-1
Expected Record vs RPI 26-50:1-5
Expected Record vs RPI 51-100:1-8
Expected Record vs RPI 101-200:5-1
Expected Record vs RPI 200+:6-1
Current OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC Record:12-1
Expected OOC RPI:32
Expected OOC SOS:230


RPI FORECAST by FINAL RECORD

Here is the RPI forecast broken down by final record along with the probability of the final record:

Final RecordExpected RPIProbability
14-16144.0100.00%

Schedule, Results and Probabilities

Here are the schedule and probabilities of winning for Arkansas.
These are the probabilities that are used in the simulations.
They are based entirely on Jeff Sagarin's PREDICTOR.
The projected records are calculated by combining these probabilities and may be different than summing up the projections for each individual game.

DateOpponent (Expected RPI)ConfLocScoreOutcomeProb(W)Spread
11-14Southeastern Louisiana (247.0)SlndH91-87W100%0.0
11-20UC Davis (265.0)BWH68-59W100%0.0
11-22Missouri St. (213.0)MVCA57-62L0%0.0
11-26South Alabama (150.0)SBA79-77W100%0.0
11-29Florida A&M (302.0)MEACH86-61W100%0.0
12-3Texas Southern (324.0)SWACH80-61W100%0.0
12-10North Carolina Central (338.0)indH98-70W100%0.0
12-17Austin Peay (152.0)OVCH89-80W100%0.0
12-20Stephen F. Austin (84.0)SlndH67-51W100%0.0
12-27Northwestern St. (311.0)SlndH95-56W100%0.0
12-30Oklahoma (5.0)B12H96-88W100%0.0
1-3North Texas (126.0)SBN86-75W100%0.0
1-6Texas (33.0)B12H67-61W100%0.0
1-10Mississippi St. (77.0)SECH56-70L0%0.0
1-14Mississippi (82.0)SECA65-74L0%0.0
1-17Florida (46.0)SECA65-80L0%0.0
1-24Auburn (64.0)SECH51-73L0%0.0
1-29Alabama (104.0)SECH89-80W100%0.0
1-31Louisiana St. (38.0)SECA69-79L0%0.0
2-4Tennessee (23.0)SECH72-74L0%0.0
2-7Mississippi St. (77.0)SECA77-86L0%0.0
2-11Auburn (64.0)SECA62-75L0%0.0
2-14Kentucky (73.0)SECH63-79L0%0.0
2-18Louisiana St. (38.0)SECH69-72L0%0.0
2-21South Carolina (49.0)SECA78-82L0%0.0
2-25Alabama (104.0)SECA67-88L0%0.0
3-1Georgia (189.0)SECH89-67W100%0.0
3-4Mississippi (82.0)SECH91-98L0%0.0
3-8Vanderbilt (92.0)SECA58-75L0%0.0
3-12Florida (46.0)SECN58-73L0%0.0

Here is a graph of the history of the RPI Forecast plotted against the history of the day-to-day RPI and the 95% confidence interval*:

*Please see the faq for a discussion on the 95% confidence interval.
Here is a histogram of all of the RPI forecasts over all 10,000 simulations