Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below is the field of 65 projected to make the NCAA tournament.

Updated Every Day this Week

These projections are based on the "Dance Card" method of projecting the NCAA tournament field combined with the RPI forecast methodology of this webpage.
Dance Card was built using the old version of the RPI, so those are the forecasts I use.
Dance Card has not missed more than 3 teams in any year since its inception, but because I use forecasts, I expect to miss more early in the season.

As the season progresses, these forecasts should improve (assuming the selection committee continues to pick teams as they have in the past).
Because the automatic bids have not yet been decided, I picked the team from each conference which has the highest probability of winning the bid. Whether or not a team is included in the field is purely objective, but the seeds themselves are subjective.
Wondering why your team isn't on this page? Go here to see how all 341 of the teams stacked up.
Through games of Mar 15, 2008.


SeedAuto BidTeamConfDance CardProb(At-Large Bid)Expected RPI Rank (Old Version)
1XNorth CarolinaACC11.34511.00001.0
1XUCLAP1010.35651.00004.0
1TennesseeSEC9.73491.00002.0
1XKansasB128.92181.00007.0
2XMemphisCUSA8.72431.00003.0
2TexasB128.51271.00005.0
2DukeACC8.46271.00006.0
2GeorgetownBE7.28161.00008.0
3XWisconsinB106.65091.000010.0
3IndianaB106.40981.000020.0
3XavierA106.18221.00009.0
3XDrakeMVC6.09021.000012.0
4StanfordP105.94141.000015.0
4LouisvilleBE5.86731.000011.0
4XButlerHorz5.71011.000017.0
4XKent St.MAC5.64831.000028.0
5Michigan St.B105.39851.000018.0
5ClemsonACC5.00531.000019.0
5VanderbiltSEC4.74241.000013.0
5Washington St.P104.37761.000022.0
6GonzagaWCC4.34401.000032.0
6XNevada Las VegasMWC4.15591.000023.0
6XPittsburghBE4.12691.000014.0
6Notre DameBE4.08191.000027.0
7Southern CaliforniaP103.96591.000026.0
7Brigham YoungMWC3.86230.999930.0
7OklahomaB123.31760.999525.0
7MarquetteBE3.28450.999521.0
8ConnecticutBE3.23600.999416.0
8XArkansasSEC3.04300.998824.0
8West VirginiaBE2.80190.997529.0
8South AlabamaSB2.75240.997040.0
9XDavidsonSC2.70350.996639.0
9Illinois St.MVC2.49990.993836.0
9DaytonA102.34600.990531.0
9BaylorB122.30740.989537.0
10PurdueB102.13250.983549.0
10Mississippi St.SEC1.96030.975038.0
10Miami FLACC1.93030.973234.0
10ArizonaP101.77790.962335.0
11Texas A&MB121.72770.958033.0
11XTempleA101.34520.910748.0
11St. Mary'sWCC1.25750.895744.0
11KentuckySEC1.11330.867245.0
12Ohio St.B101.00320.842146.0
12XWestern KentuckySB0.91460.819843.0
12Virginia CommonwealthCAA0.58370.720356.0
12MississippiSEC0.31630.624147.0
13XOral RobertsSum-0.00660.497465.0
13XGeorge MasonCAA-0.45610.324268.0
13XBoise St.WAC-0.62320.266677.0
13XCornellIvy-1.43420.075878.0
14XSienaMAAC-1.57330.057869.0
14XBelmontASun-2.06130.019693.0
14XAustin PeayOVC-3.16880.0008108.0
14XCal St. FullertonBW-3.37130.000483.0
15XAmericanPat-3.50970.0002101.0
15XPortland St.BSky-3.53390.0002115.0
15XSan DiegoWCC-3.60460.000285.0
15XMD Baltimore CountyAE-4.55010.0000112.0
16XWinthropBSth-5.39200.0000117.0
16XMount St. Mary'sNEC-8.70700.0000164.0
16XTexas ArlingtonSlnd-8.94600.0000154.0
play-inXMississippi Valley St.SWAC-15.23180.0000243.0
play-inXCoppin St.MEAC-17.13280.0000248.0

Thanks to Ken Pomeroy for the schedules data, Jeff Sagarin for the use of PREDICTOR, and Jay Coleman for help with the Dance Card methodology.
Please email any comments, questions or suggestions to: questions@rpiforecast.com