Team Forecasts - Conf Forecasts - Simulation Results - Tourney Projections - Blog

Below are projections for the end-of-season RPIs for all D1 basketball teams.

How does the RPI Forecast work?

Some numbers (e.g., 1-50 W-L, 51-100 W-L, etc.) are rounded and may not sum up to totals.

EXPECTED RPI RANK is the best estimate for an individual team of its end-of-season RPI Rank. Because they are expectations, they do not have to be 1, 2, 3, etc.
OVERALL is the one most likely overall outcome for all Division 1 teams if I am forced to rank teams 1, 2, 3, etc. It corresponds to the RPI Forecast number column and may not be the same as ranking the Expected RPI Rank column.

NEW! For Simulations INCLUDING CONFERENCE TOURNAMENTS, click here (updated weekly)

(Help keep the site up and running - donate via paypal to rpiforecast@gmail.com)

Through games of Mar 15, 2008.

	Expected			RPI	SOS	SOS Rank	Current	Projected	1-25	26-50		51-100	101-200	200+	Non Conf Forecasts			Current	Over-
Overall	RPI Rank	Team	Conf	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	W-L	W-L	W-L	W-L		W-L	W-L	W-L	W-L	RPI	SOS	RPI	Rated	t-stat
1	1.0	Tennessee	SEC	0.6761	0.6052	1	28-4	28-4	3-2	8-1		3-1	12-0	2-0	13-1	1	1	1	0.0	NaN
2	2.0	North Carolina	ACC	0.6722	0.5909	3	31-2	31-2	5-1	3-0		11-1	7-0	5-0	15-0	2	14	2	0.0	NaN
3	3.0	Memphis	CUSA	0.6644	0.5679	25	33-1	33-1	2-1	4-0		9-0	11-0	7-0	14-1	3	8	3	0.0	NaN
4	4.0	UCLA	P10	0.6535	0.5746	14	30-3	30-3	6-1	5-1		9-0	4-1	6-0	11-1	23	82	4	0.0	NaN
5	5.0	Texas	B12	0.6523	0.5871	5	27-5	27-5	3-2	8-1		6-1	5-1	5-0	12-2	15	20	5	0.0	NaN
6	6.0	Duke	ACC	0.6481	0.5841	8	27-5	27-5	4-3	3-1		7-1	9-0	4-0	13-1	7	28	6	0.0	NaN
7	7.0	Kansas	B12	0.6459	0.5503	59	29-3	29-3	0-1	7-1		7-1	11-0	4-0	14-0	11	131	7	0.0	NaN
8	8.0	Georgetown	BE	0.6424	0.5648	31	27-5	27-5	3-4	5-0		4-1	14-0	3-0	10-1	16	102	8	0.0	NaN
9	9.0	Xavier	A10	0.6345	0.5694	23	27-6	27-6	2-1	7-3		3-2	11-0	4-0	12-3	14	16	9	0.0	NaN
10	10.0	Drake	MVC	0.6283	0.5425	68	26-4	26-4	1-0	6-1		1-1	13-2	5-0	8-1	18	107	10	0.0	NaN
11	11.0	Wisconsin	B10	0.6276	0.5485	61	28-4	28-4	5-2	1-2		3-0	14-0	5-0	10-2	26	41	11	0.0	NaN
12	12.0	Vanderbilt	SEC	0.6247	0.5619	40	26-7	26-7	1-1	3-3		7-2	10-1	5-0	15-0	6	68	12	0.0	NaN
13	13.0	Louisville	BE	0.6224	0.5845	6	24-8	24-8	5-4	3-2		4-0	8-2	5-0	10-3	25	17	13	0.0	NaN
14	14.0	Stanford	P10	0.6167	0.5537	56	26-7	26-7	3-3	4-1		6-3	6-0	7-0	11-1	44	281	14	0.0	NaN
15	15.0	Pittsburgh	BE	0.6160	0.5713	19	25-9	25-9	5-3	2-4		3-1	12-1	4-1	11-1	10	63	15	0.0	NaN
16	16.0	Michigan St.	B10	0.6152	0.5605	42	25-8	25-8	3-4	3-2		2-0	11-2	6-0	12-1	9	36	16	0.0	NaN
17	17.0	Butler	Horz	0.6120	0.5112	128	29-3	29-3	0-1	1-0		9-2	10-0	9-0	11-1	29	142	17	0.0	NaN
18	18.0	Connecticut	BE	0.6107	0.5642	35	24-8	24-8	4-2	2-4		2-1	12-2	4-0	11-2	19	31	18	0.0	NaN
19	19.0	Clemson	ACC	0.6097	0.5648	32	23-8	23-8	1-3	3-2		5-3	10-0	4-0	11-2	42	149	19	0.0	NaN
20	20.0	Marquette	BE	0.6056	0.5712	21	23-9	23-9	2-6	3-2		3-1	9-0	7-0	10-1	21	95	20	0.0	NaN
21	21.0	Washington St.	P10	0.6054	0.5592	46	24-8	24-8	0-5	4-2		8-1	3-0	9-0	12-0	12	141	21	0.0	NaN
22	22.0	Kent St.	MAC	0.6050	0.5196	111	28-6	28-6	0-2	2-0		9-1	6-1	11-2	12-3	24	60	22	0.0	NaN
23	23.0	Indiana	B10	0.6032	0.5506	58	25-7	25-7	1-5	4-0		5-1	8-1	7-0	11-2	37	65	23	0.0	NaN
24	24.0	Nevada Las Vegas	MWC	0.6019	0.5448	63	25-7	25-7	2-2	0-1		8-3	6-1	9-0	10-3	43	49	24	0.0	NaN
25	25.0	Brigham Young	MWC	0.6018	0.5269	97	27-7	27-7	2-4	0-0		6-3	7-0	12-0	11-4	67	133	25	0.0	NaN
26	26.0	Arkansas	SEC	0.6005	0.5712	20	22-10	22-10	3-1	3-3		3-1	10-5	3-0	11-3	40	64	26	0.0	NaN
27	27.0	Notre Dame	BE	0.5986	0.5379	81	24-7	24-7	3-5	3-1		2-1	9-0	8-0	10-2	97	255	27	0.0	NaN
28	28.0	West Virginia	BE	0.5948	0.5595	45	23-10	23-10	3-6	0-3		2-1	13-1	5-0	10-2	38	111	28	0.0	NaN
29	29.0	Oklahoma	B12	0.5943	0.5766	13	22-11	22-11	0-5	6-3		5-2	6-1	5-0	12-3	31	34	29	0.0	NaN
30	30.0	Southern California	P10	0.5930	0.5791	10	21-11	21-11	2-7	2-1		8-2	3-0	6-1	9-3	56	67	30	0.0	NaN
	Expected			RPI	SOS	SOS Rank	Current	Projected	1-25	26-50		51-100	101-200	200+	Non Conf Forecasts			Current	Over-
Overall	RPI Rank	Team	Conf	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	W-L	W-L	W-L	W-L		W-L	W-L	W-L	W-L	RPI	SOS	RPI	Rated	t-stat
31	31.0	Gonzaga	WCC	0.5921	0.5279	93	25-7	25-7	1-3	3-2		4-2	5-0	12-0	11-5	33	12	31	0.0	NaN
32	32.0	Dayton	A10	0.5906	0.5645	34	21-10	21-10	2-3	2-1		5-2	8-4	4-0	12-1	4	24	32	0.0	NaN
33	33.0	Illinois St.	MVC	0.5894	0.5419	73	23-9	23-9	0-5	2-0		3-0	12-3	6-1	8-3	61	100	33	0.0	NaN
34	34.0	Miami FL	ACC	0.5891	0.5606	41	21-10	21-10	2-3	1-0		5-4	7-3	6-0	12-1	17	92	34	0.0	NaN
35	35.0	Davidson	SC	0.5875	0.5110	129	25-6	25-6	0-3	0-0		0-1	15-2	10-0	2-6	145	7	35	0.0	NaN
36	36.0	St. Mary's	WCC	0.5874	0.5080	136	24-6	24-6	1-2	1-1		5-3	5-0	12-0	12-3	22	32	36	0.0	NaN
37	37.0	South Alabama	SB	0.5867	0.5114	127	24-6	24-6	0-1	3-1		1-1	9-3	11-0	7-3	60	81	37	0.0	NaN
38	38.0	Arizona	P10	0.5853	0.5982	2	18-14	18-14	3-7	2-1		5-4	3-2	5-0	9-3	5	3	38	0.0	NaN
39	39.0	Western Kentucky	SB	0.5852	0.5067	141	25-6	25-6	0-1	0-3		1-1	11-1	13-0	6-4	105	116	39	0.0	NaN
40	40.0	Mississippi St.	SEC	0.5824	0.5514	57	22-10	22-10	0-3	2-4		2-2	14-1	4-0	9-5	106	106	40	0.0	NaN
41	41.0	Texas A&M	B12	0.5815	0.5555	51	23-10	23-10	1-3	4-4		3-3	9-0	6-0	13-1	30	186	41	0.0	NaN
42	42.0	Baylor	B12	0.5796	0.5586	47	20-10	20-10	0-4	3-4		4-1	7-1	6-0	11-2	36	86	42	0.0	NaN
43	43.0	Massachusetts	A10	0.5786	0.5422	71	21-10	21-10	0-2	1-3		5-2	10-3	5-0	11-3	27	75	43	0.0	NaN
44	44.0	Purdue	B10	0.5782	0.5184	113	24-8	24-8	4-3	1-1		1-0	10-4	8-0	9-4	144	243	44	0.0	NaN
45	45.0	Saint Joseph's	A10	0.5779	0.5544	53	21-12	21-12	2-1	4-5		3-2	7-4	6-0	9-4	63	104	45	0.0	NaN
46	46.0	Mississippi	SEC	0.5754	0.5441	64	21-10	21-10	2-1	3-2		2-1	9-6	5-0	14-0	8	97	46	0.0	NaN
47	47.0	Creighton	MVC	0.5754	0.5432	66	20-10	20-10	0-4	1-2		3-1	11-2	5-1	9-1	13	70	47	0.0	NaN
48	48.0	Temple	A10	0.5750	0.5565	50	21-12	21-12	1-2	3-3		4-4	7-4	6-0	7-7	109	27	48	0.0	NaN
49	49.0	Kansas St.	B12	0.5747	0.5647	33	19-11	19-11	1-3	2-3		3-4	8-1	5-0	9-4	76	52	49	0.0	NaN
50	50.0	Ohio St.	B10	0.5736	0.5725	17	19-13	19-13	1-8	1-2		5-1	6-2	6-0	9-4	28	9	50	0.0	NaN
51	51.0	Villanova	BE	0.5725	0.5575	48	20-12	20-12	2-5	2-2		3-1	9-3	4-1	10-2	34	118	51	0.0	NaN
52	52.0	Oral Roberts	Sum	0.5719	0.5012	156	23-8	23-8	0-1	0-3		4-2	5-1	14-1	4-6	111	19	52	0.0	NaN
53	53.0	Virginia Tech	ACC	0.5717	0.5628	38	19-13	19-13	0-5	1-2		5-2	8-4	5-0	9-5	77	99	53	0.0	NaN
54	54.0	Virginia Commonwealth	CAA	0.5712	0.4996	160	24-7	24-7	0-0	0-2		3-1	10-3	11-1	8-3	46	96	54	0.0	NaN
55	55.0	Syracuse	BE	0.5702	0.5791	9	19-13	19-13	2-4	2-6		3-3	12-2	1-0	10-3	32	15	55	0.0	NaN
56	56.0	UAB	CUSA	0.5692	0.5271	95	22-10	22-10	0-2	0-0		3-3	11-5	8-0	10-5	99	153	56	0.0	NaN
57	57.0	Kentucky	SEC	0.5668	0.5706	22	18-12	18-12	2-5	2-1		1-4	7-2	6-0	6-7	188	66	57	0.0	NaN
58	58.0	Oregon	P10	0.5658	0.5640	37	18-13	18-13	1-6	3-3		4-2	4-2	6-0	9-3	55	121	58	0.0	NaN
59	59.0	Florida St.	ACC	0.5652	0.5741	15	19-14	19-14	1-6	2-0		5-5	6-3	5-0	11-4	70	94	59	0.0	NaN
60	60.0	New Mexico	MWC	0.5651	0.5022	155	24-8	24-8	1-3	0-1		5-2	7-2	11-0	13-2	50	259	60	0.0	NaN
	Expected			RPI	SOS	SOS Rank	Current	Projected	1-25	26-50		51-100	101-200	200+	Non Conf Forecasts			Current	Over-
Overall	RPI Rank	Team	Conf	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	W-L	W-L	W-L	W-L		W-L	W-L	W-L	W-L	RPI	SOS	RPI	Rated	t-stat
61	61.0	George Mason	CAA	0.5643	0.5115	126	23-10	23-10	0-1	2-1		2-2	10-5	9-2	8-4	53	50	61	0.0	NaN
62	62.0	Southern Illinois	MVC	0.5639	0.5732	16	17-14	17-14	1-3	4-4		1-1	8-6	3-0	6-6	57	4	62	0.0	NaN
63	63.0	Cleveland St.	Horz	0.5599	0.5348	85	19-12	19-12	1-3	0-1		5-2	6-5	7-1	6-5	96	42	63	0.0	NaN
64	64.0	Stephen F. Austin	Slnd	0.5584	0.4638	263	22-5	22-5	0-0	1-0		2-2	4-2	15-1	8-1	59	295	64	0.0	NaN
65	65.0	Cornell	Ivy	0.5583	0.4630	265	21-5	21-5	0-1	0-0		1-2	5-1	15-1	7-5	129	204	65	0.0	NaN
66	66.0	Siena	MAAC	0.5571	0.5145	120	22-10	22-10	1-1	0-1		1-2	9-4	11-2	6-5	68	22	66	0.0	NaN
67	67.0	Georgia Tech	ACC	0.5568	0.5842	7	15-17	15-17	1-8	1-2		4-3	4-4	5-0	7-7	92	29	67	0.0	NaN
68	68.0	Texas Tech	B12	0.5564	0.5873	4	15-15	15-15	1-4	3-5		2-5	7-0	2-1	8-5	47	18	68	0.0	NaN
69	69.0	Charlotte	A10	0.5553	0.5438	65	20-13	20-13	1-1	4-4		4-3	8-3	3-2	9-5	98	78	69	0.0	NaN
70	70.0	IUPUI	Sum	0.5545	0.4712	238	23-7	23-7	0-1	1-0		1-3	5-2	16-1	6-3	102	185	70	0.0	NaN
71	71.0	Utah St.	WAC	0.5545	0.4953	168	23-10	23-10	0-1	0-0		6-3	4-3	13-3	10-5	74	127	71	0.0	NaN
72	72.0	Florida	SEC	0.5540	0.5342	87	21-11	21-11	1-3	1-4		1-2	10-2	8-0	13-2	72	231	72	0.0	NaN
73	73.0	Oklahoma St.	B12	0.5537	0.5783	11	16-15	16-15	1-5	2-5		3-2	7-3	3-0	8-5	108	72	73	0.0	NaN
74	74.0	Miami OH	MAC	0.5536	0.5542	54	17-15	17-15	1-5	2-2		2-5	4-2	8-1	6-7	52	6	74	0.0	NaN
75	75.0	Nevada	WAC	0.5534	0.5089	132	20-11	20-11	0-2	0-0		2-5	6-3	12-1	7-6	84	46	75	0.0	NaN
76	76.0	Akron	MAC	0.5529	0.5082	135	23-10	23-10	0-3	1-1		5-2	4-3	13-1	10-4	89	162	76	0.0	NaN
77	77.0	Rhode Island	A10	0.5525	0.5213	107	21-11	21-11	0-1	1-5		2-2	11-3	7-0	14-1	20	168	77	0.0	NaN
78	78.0	Cal St. Fullerton	BW	0.5516	0.4826	198	23-8	23-8	0-0	0-2		1-3	6-3	16-0	8-4	110	223	78	0.0	NaN
79	79.0	Houston	CUSA	0.5510	0.5053	146	22-9	22-9	0-2	0-2		2-2	10-2	10-1	11-3	86	184	79	0.0	NaN
80	80.0	Belmont	ASun	0.5510	0.4734	229	24-8	24-8	0-1	0-0		0-3	11-1	13-3	7-6	107	103	80	0.0	NaN
81	81.0	San Diego St.	MWC	0.5509	0.5259	99	19-12	19-12	1-4	0-2		4-3	4-2	10-1	9-4	85	173	81	0.0	NaN
82	82.0	Ohio	MAC	0.5499	0.5207	109	19-12	19-12	1-2	0-2		4-4	6-2	8-2	10-4	35	44	82	0.0	NaN
83	83.0	Arizona St.	P10	0.5498	0.5401	77	19-12	19-12	2-5	3-2		2-3	2-2	10-0	10-2	87	275	83	0.0	NaN
84	84.0	Maryland	ACC	0.5494	0.5658	29	18-14	18-14	1-4	0-1		5-5	9-4	3-0	10-5	91	38	84	0.0	NaN
85	85.0	Austin Peay	OVC	0.5485	0.4814	206	24-10	24-10	0-2	0-0		2-3	3-1	19-4	5-6	69	10	85	0.0	NaN
86	86.0	Wright St.	Horz	0.5481	0.5046	149	21-10	21-10	1-1	0-1		4-4	6-4	10-0	8-3	58	105	86	0.0	NaN
87	87.0	Boise St.	WAC	0.5471	0.4834	196	24-8	24-8	1-1	0-0		4-3	1-2	18-2	9-4	116	201	87	0.0	NaN
88	88.0	MD Baltimore County	AE	0.5462	0.4631	264	23-8	23-8	0-0	0-2		1-0	10-3	12-3	7-5	94	170	88	0.0	NaN
89	89.0	UC Santa Barbara	BW	0.5461	0.4804	208	22-8	22-8	1-2	0-0		2-1	3-5	16-0	10-3	49	205	89	0.0	NaN
90	90.0	Portland St.	BSky	0.5452	0.4745	226	21-9	21-9	0-2	0-0		2-1	4-2	15-4	5-7	154	136	90	0.0	NaN
	Expected			RPI	SOS	SOS Rank	Current	Projected	1-25	26-50		51-100	101-200	200+	Non Conf Forecasts			Current	Over-
Overall	RPI Rank	Team	Conf	Forecast	Forecast	Forecast	W-L	W-L	W-L	W-L		W-L	W-L	W-L	W-L	RPI	SOS	RPI	Rated	t-stat
91	91.0	American	Pat	0.5441	0.4996	158	21-11	21-11	0-1	0-1		1-1	9-5	11-3	8-7	135	193	91	0.0	NaN
92	92.0	California	P10	0.5428	0.5672	26	16-15	16-15	1-6	1-4		3-4	5-1	6-0	9-2	54	132	92	0.0	NaN
93	93.0	Tulsa	CUSA	0.5420	0.5159	117	20-13	20-13	0-3	0-1		2-3	6-6	12-0	9-4	124	254	93	0.0	NaN
94	94.0	San Diego	WCC	0.5414	0.5258	100	20-13	20-13	0-1	3-5		1-5	3-1	13-1	6-10	162	33	94	0.0	NaN
95	95.0	Nebraska	B12	0.5409	0.5279	94	19-12	19-12	0-4	3-4		3-1	4-3	9-0	11-2	81	290	95	0.0	NaN
96	96.0	Utah	MWC	0.5392	0.5418	74	16-14	16-14	1-4	0-1		4-4	6-3	5-2	8-4	82	117	96	0.0	NaN
97	97.0	Valparaiso	Horz	0.5385	0.5204	110	19-13	19-13	0-5	0-0	<