Home

 

 

Lab Members

 

 

Research

 

 

Publications

 

 

Joining the
Pascual Lab

 

 

News &
Announcements

 

 

Photo Gallery

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

                        

 

 

Recent Publications

Cash, B., X. Rodo, J. Ballester, M.J. Bouma, A. Baeza, R. Dhiman and M. Pascual. Malaria epidemics and the influence of the tropical South Atlantic on the Indian monsoon. Nature Climate Change. Web 3 March 2013. (doi:10.1038/nclimate1834)
Roy, M., M. Bouma, E.L. Ionides, R.C. Dhiman and M. Pascual. 2013. The potential elimination of Plasmodium vivax malaria by relapse treatment: insights from a transmission model and surveillance data from NW India. PLoS NTD 7(1): e1979 (doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0001979).
Zinder, D., T. Bedford, S. Gupta and M. Pascual. 2013. The roles of competition and mutation in shaping antigenic and genetic diversity in influenza. PLoS Pathogens 9(1): e1003104 (doi:10.1371/journal.ppat.1003104).
Rodo, X., M. Pascual, F. J. Doblas-Reyes, A. Gershunov, D.A. Stone, F. Giorgi, P.J. Hudson, J. Kinter, M. Rodriguez-Arias, N. Stenseth and A.P. Dobson. 2013. Climate change and infectious diseases: Can we meet the needs for better prediction? Springer. Web 17 April 2013. (doi:10.1007/s10584-013-0744-1)


   Previous Publications

         2012

 

Artzy-Randrup, Y., M. Rorick, K. Day, D. Chen, A.P. Dobson and M. Pascual. 2012. Population structuring of multi-copy, antigen-encoding genes in Plasmodium falciparum. eLife (doi:10.7554/eLife00093.001).
Scheffer, M., S.R. Carpenter, T.M. Lenton, J. Bascompte, W. Brock, V. Dakos, J. van de Koppel, I.A. van de Leemput, S.A. Levin, E.H. van Nes, J. Vandermeer, and M. Pascual. 2012. Anticipating critical transitions. Science 338(6105):344-8 (doi:10.1126/science.1225244).
Bedford, T., A. Rambaut and M. Pascual. 2012. Canalization of the evolutionary trajectory of the human influenza virus. BMC Biology 10:38 (doi: 10.1186/1741-7007-10-38).
Reiner, R., A. King, M. Emch, M. Yunus, A. Faruque and M. Pascual. 2012. Highly localized sensitivity to climate forcing drives endemic cholera in a megacity. PNAS Early Edition (doi: 10.1073/pnas.1108438109).

 

         2011

 

Bush, K.F. et al. (20 authors). 2011. Impacts of climate change on public health in India: future research directions. Environ health Perspect. 119(6):765-70 (doi:10.1289/ehp.1003000)
Baskerville, E., A. Dobson, T. Bedford, S. Allesina and M. Pascual. 2011. Spatial guilds in the Serengeti food web revealed by a Bayesian group model. PloS Computational Biology 7(12): e1002321 (doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002321).
Bouma, M., A. Baeza, A. terVeen and M. Pascual. 2011.  Global malaria maps and climate change: a focus on East African highlands. Trends in Parasitology 27: 421-422 (doi: 10.1016/j.pt.2011.07.003).
Zinck, R., M. Pascual and V. Grimm. 2011.  Understanding shifts in wildfire regimes as emergent threshold phenomena. The American Naturalist. 178: 6 (doi: 10.1086/662675).
Bedford, T., S. Cobey and M. Pascual. 2011. Strength and tempo of selection revealed in viral gene genealogies. BMC Evolutionary Biology 11: 220 (doi: 10.1186/1471-2148-11-220).
Baeza, A., M. Bouma, A. Dobson, R. Dhiman, H. Srivastava and M. Pascual. 2011. Climate forcing and desert malaria: the effect of irrigation. Malaria Journal 10: 190 (doi: 10.1186/1475-2875-10-190).
Pascual, M., R. Manojit, K. Laneri. 2011. Simple models for complex systems: exploiting the relationship between local and global densities. Theoretical Ecology 4(2): 211-222 (doi: 10.1007/s12080-011-0116-2).
Cobey, S. and M. Pascual. 2011. Consequences of host heterogeneity, epitope immunodominance and immune breadth for strain competition. Journal of Theoretical Biology. 270(1): 80-87 (doi: 10.1016/j/jtbi.2010.11.009).
Kefi, S., M. Rietkerk, P.C. de Ruiter, M. Roy, A. Franc, and M. Pascual. 2010. Robust scaling in ecosystems and the meltdown of patch size distributions before extinction. Ecology Letters 14: 29-35 (doi: 10.1111/j.1461-0248.2010.01553.x).
Alonso, D., M. Bouma and M. Pascual. 2011. Epidemic malaria and warmer temperatures in recent decades in an East African highland. Proceedings of the Royal Society B. (doi: 10.1098/repb.2010.2020).

 

         2010

 

Cobey, S., Pascual, M. and U. Dieckmann. 2010. Ecological factors driving the long term evolution of influenzas host range. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London. (doi: 10.1098/rspb.20100519).
Laneri, K., A. Bhadra, E. Ionides, M.J. Bouma, R. Dhiman, R. Yadav and M. Pascual. 2010. Forcing vs. feedback: epidemic malaria and monsoon rains in NW India. Plos Compt Biol 6(9): e1000898. (doi: 10.1371/journal.pcbi/1000898).
Artzy, Y., D. Alonso and M. Pascual. 2010. Transmission intensity and drug resistance in malaria population dynamics: implications for climate change. Plos One 5(10): e13588. (doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0013588).
Warren, C., M. Pascual, K.D. Lafferty, and A. Kuris. 2010. The inverse niche model for food webs with parasites. Theoretical Ecology (doi: 10.1007/s12080-009-0069-x.). 
Bedford, T., S. Cobey, P. Beerli and M. Pascual. 2010. Global migration dynamics underline evolution and persistance of human influenza A (H3N2). Plos Pathogens 6(5): 1-9.

 

          2009

 

Allesina, S. and M. Pascual. 2009. Googling food webs: can an eigenvector measure species’ importance for co-extinctions? PloS Computational Biology 5(9): 1-6.
Chaves, L.F., A. Kaneko, A. Bjorkman, and M. Pascual. 2009. Random, top-down or bottom-up co-existence of parasites: malaria population dynamics in multi-parasitic settings. Ecology 90(9): 2414-2425. 
Pascual, M., A.P. Dobson, and M.J. Bouma. 2009. Underestimating malaria risk under variable temperatures. PNAS (Early Edition, August 14th), invited commentary.
Allesina, S. and M. Pascual. 2009. Food web models: a plea for groups. Ecology Letters 12(7): 652-662.
Dobson, A., S. Allesina, K. Lafferty and M. Pascual (eds.). 2009. Food web assembly and collapse: mathematical models and implications for conservation. Theme Issue. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Soc. London B., Vol. 364 (1524).
Pascual, M. and M.J. Bouma. 2009. Do rising temperatures matter? Ecology 90(4): 906-912.
Koelle, K. and M. Pascual. 2009. Understanding the dynamics of rapidly evolving pathogens through modeling the tempo of antigenic change: influenza as a case study. Epidemics 1(2): 129-137.

 

          2008

 

Allesina, S., A. Bodini and M. Pascual. 2008. Functional links and robustness in food webs. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Soc. London B. Theme Issue on Food Web Assembly and Collapse: Mathematical Models and Implications for Conservation. 364 (1524): 1701-1711.
King, A.A., E.L. Ionides, M. Pascual and M.J. Bouma. 2008. Inapparant infections and cholera dynamics. Nature 454 (7206): 877-880.
Allesina, S., D. Alonso and M. Pascual. 2008. A General Model for Food Web Structure. Science AAAS 320 (5876): 658-661.
Pascual, M., B. Cazelles, M. bouma, L. Chaves and K. Koelle. 2008. Shifting patterns: malaria dynamics and rainfall variability in an African highland. Proceedings of the Royal Society, Series B, Biological Sciences. 275: 123-132.
Allesina, S. and M. Pascual. 2008. Network structure, predator-prey modules and stability in large food webs. Springer Science, Business Media. Theoretical Ecology.
Pascual, M., L.F. Chaves, X. Rodo, B. Cash and Md. Yunus. 2008. Predicting endemic cholera: the role of climate variability and disease dynamics. Climate Research 136: 131-140.
Lafferty, K. et al. (15 authors). 2008. Parasites in food webs: the ultimate missing link. Ecology Letters (Ideas and Perspectives) 11(6): 533-546.
Chaves, L.F., J.M. Cohen, M. Pascual and M. Wilson. 2008. Social exlusion modifies climate and deforestation impacts on a vector-borne disease. PloS Neglected Tropical Diseases 2(2): 1-8.

 

         2007

 

Chaves, L.F., and M. Pascual. 2007. Comparing models for early warning systems of neglected tropical diseases. PloS Neglected Tropical Diseases 1: e33.
Allesina, S. and M. Pascual. 2007. Network structure, predator-prey modules, and stability in large food webs. Theoretical Ecology. (doi: 10.1007?s12080-007-0007-8).
Chaves, L.F., M.J. Hernandez, A.P. Dobson, and M. Pascual. 2007. Sources and sinks: revisiting the criteria for identifying reservoirs in American Cutaneous Leishmaniasis. Trends in Parasitology 23: 311-316.
Ruiz-Moreno, D., M. Pascual, M. Bouma and A. Dobson. 2007. Cholera seasonality and rainfall in historical Madras: epidemic and endemic patters. EcoHealth. 4(1): 52-62.
Aparicio, J. and M. Pascual. 2007. Building epidemiological models from R0: an implicit treatment of transmission in networks. Proc. R. Soc. London B 274: 505-512.

 

 

 

         2006

 

Koelle, K., S. Cobey, B. Grenfell, and M. Pascual. 2006. Epochal evolution shapes the phylodynamics of interpandemic influenza. Science 314: 1898-1903.
Alonso D., A. McKane and M. Pascual. 2006. Stochastic amplification in epidemics. Journal of the Royal Society Interface 4(14): 575-582.
Koelle, K., M. Pascual, and Md. Yunus. 2006. Serotype cycling in cholera dynamics. Proceedings of the Royal Soc. London B 273(1603): 2876-2889.
Peacor, S.D., S. Allesina, R.L. Riolo, and M. Pascual. 2006. Phenotypic plasticity opposes species invasion by altering fitness landscape. Public Library of Science (PLoS) Biology 4(11): 2114-2120.
Alonso, D. and M. Pascual. 2006. Comment on "A keystone mutualism drives pattern in a power function." Science 313: 1739.
L.F. Chaves and M. Pascual. 2006. Climate cycles and forecasts of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis, a non stationary vector borne disease. Public Library of Science (PLoS) Medicine 3(8): 1320-1328. (See commentary by B. Cazelles and S. Hales, Infectious diseases, climate influences, and nonstationarity, p. 1212).
Pascual M., J. Ahumada, L.F. Chaves, X. Rodo, and M. Bouma, 2006. Malaria resurgence in East African Highlands: temperature trends revisited. PNAS 103 (15): 5829-5834.
Pascual M., Koelle K. and Dobson A.P. 2006. Hyperinfectivity in cholera: a new mechanism for an old epidemiological model? Public Library of Science (PloS) Medicine 3(6): 931-932.
Roy, M. and M. Pascual. 2006. On representing network heterogeneities in the incidence rate ofsimple epidemic models. Ecological Complexity 3(1): 80-96.
Altizer, S., A. Dobson, P. Hoseeini, P. Hudson, M. Pascual and P. Rohani. 2006. Seasonality and the dynamics of infectious diseases. Ecology Letters 9(4): 467-484.
Vandermeer, J. and M. Pascual. 2006. Competitive coexistence through intermediate polyhagy. Ecological Complexity 3(1): 37-43.

 

 

 

         2005

 

Pascual, M. and J. Dunne (editors). 2005. Ecological Networks: Linking Structure to Dynamics in Food Webs. (Proceedings of workshop at the Santa Fe Insititute). SFI and Oxford University Press.
Pascual, M. 2005. Computational ecology: from the complex to the simple and back. Public Library of Sciences, Computational Biology, 1(2): 101-105.
Koelle, K. X. Rodo, M. Pascual, Md. Yunus, and G. Mostafa. 2005. Refractory periods to climate forcing in cholera dynamics. Nature 436(4): 696-700.
Pascual, M. and F. Guichard. 2005. Criticality and disturbance in spatial ecological systems. Trends in Ecology and Evolution. 20(2)" 88-95.
Pascual, M. and A. Dobson. 2005. Seasonal patterns of infectious diseases. Public Libary of Sciences (PloS), Medicine 2(1): 18-19, Invited commentary.
Palmer M. A et al. (19 co-authors from the ESA Visions Committee). 2005. Ecological Science and Sustainability for the 21st century. Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 3(1): 4-12.
Koelle, K, M. Pascual, and Md. Yunus. 2005. Pathogen adaptation to seasonal forcing and climate change. Proc. R. Soc. London B (doi: 10.1098/rspb.2004.3043).
Boushaba, K. and M. Pascual. 2005. Dynamics of the 'echo' effect in a phytoplankton system with nitrogen fixation. Bulletin of Mathematical Biology 67(3): 487-507.

 

 

         2004

 

Coles V.J., R.R. Hood, M. Pascual, and D.G. Capone. 2004. Modeling the impact of Trichodesmium and nitrogen fixation in the Atlantic Ocean. J. OF Geophysical Research-Oceans 109(C6) (Art n. C06007).
Roy, M., M. Pascual, and S.A. Levin. 2004. Competitive coexistence in a dynamic landscape. Theoretical Population Biology 66: 341-353.
Koelle, K. and M. Pascual. 2004. Disentangling extrinsic from intrinsic factors in disease dynamics: a nonlinear time series approach with an application to cholera. The American Naturalist. 163(6): 901-913.
Coulson, T., P. Rohani, and M. Pascual. 2004. Skeletons, noise, and population growth: the end of anold debate. Trends in Ecology and Evolution 19(7): 359-364.
Palmer, M. (and 20 other members of ESA Visions Committee). 2004. Ecology for a crowded planet. Science 304: 1251-1252.
Harvell, C.D, R. Aronson, N. Baron, J. Connell, A. Dobson, S. Ellner, L. Gerber, K. Kim, A. Kuris, H. McCallum, K. Lafferty, B. McKay, J. Porter, M. Pascual, G. Smith, K. Sutherland, J. Ward. 2004. The rising tide of ocean diseases: unsolved problems and research priorities. Frontiers in Ecology 2(7): 375-382.

 

 

 

         2003-2001

 

Roy M., M. Pascual and A. Franc. 2003. Broad scaling region in a spatial ecological system. Complexity. 8(5): 19-27
Pascal, M. and P. Mazzega. 2003. Quasicycles revisited: apparent sensitivity to initital conditions. Theoretical Population Biology. 64(3): 385-395.
Rodo, X. M. Pascual, G. Fuchs, and S. Faruque. 2002. ENSO and cholera: a nonstationary link related to climate change? Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 99(20): 12901-12906.
Pascual, M., M. Roy, and A. Franc. 2002a. Simple models for ecological systems with complex spatial patterns. Ecology Letters 5: 412-419.
Pascual, M., M.J. Bouma, and A. Dobson. 2002. Cholera and climate: revisiting the quantitative evidence. Microbes and Infection 4: 237-245.
Pascual, M. M. Roy, F. Guichard, and G. Flierl. 2002b. Cluster size distributions: signatures of self-organization in spatial ecologies. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B 357: 675-666.

J.S. Clark, S.R. Carpenter, M. Barber, S. Collins, A. Dobson, J.A. Foley, D.M. Lodge, M. Pascual, P. Pielke Jr., W. Pizer, C. Pringle. W.V. Reid, K.A. Rose, O. Sala, W.A. Schlesinger, D.H. Wall, D. Wear. 2001. Ecological forecasts: an emerging imperative. Science 293: 657-660.

Bouma, M.J, and M. Pascual. 2001. Seasonal and interannual cycles of endemic cholera in Bengal 1891-1940. Hydrobiologia (Special Edition on 'Diseases in the Ocean') Hydrobiologia 460: 147-156.

Pascual, M., P. Mazzega, and S. Levin. 2001. Oscillatory dynamics and spatial scale in ecological systems: the role of noise and unresolved pattern. Ecology 82(8): 2357-2369.

         2000-1991

Pascual, M. and S.P. Ellner. 2000. Linking ecological patters to environmental focring via non-linear time series models. Ecology 81(10): 2767-2780.

Pascual, M., X. Rodo, S.P. Ellner, R. Colwell and M.J. Bouma. 2000. Cholera dynamics and the El nino Southern Oscillation. Science 289 (5485): 1766.

Pascual, M. and S.A. Levin. 1999. From individuals to population densities: searching for the itnermediate scale of nontrivial determinism. Ecology 80(7): 2225-2236.

Pascual, M. and S.A. Levin. 1999. Spatial scaling in a benthic population model with density-dependent disturbance. Theoretical Population Biology 56: 106-122.

Pascual, M. and H. Caswell. 1997. From the cell cycle to population cycles in phytoplankton-nutrient interactions. Ecolgy 78(3): 897-912.

Pascual, M. and H. Caswell. 1997. Environmental heterogeneity and biological pattern in a chaotic predator-prey system. Journal of Theoretical Biology 185: 1-13.

Little, S.A., S. Ellner, M. Pascual, M. Neubert, D.T. Kaplan, T. Sauer, A. Solow, and H. Caswell. 1996. Detecting nonlinear dynamics in spatio-temporal systems: examples from ecological models. Physia D 96: 321-333.

Pascual, M., F.A. Ascioti, and H. Caswell. 1995. Intermittency in the plankton: a multifractal analysis of zooplankton biomass variability. Journal of Plankton Research 17: 1209-1232.

Pascual, M. 1994. Periodic reponse to periodic forcing of the Droop equations for phytoplankton growth. Journal of Mathematical Biology 37: 743-759.

Pascual, M. 1993. Diffusion-induced chaos in a spatial predator-prey system. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B 25: 1-7.

Pascual, M. and H. Caswell. 1991. The dynamics of a size-classified benthic population with reproductive subsidy. Theoretical Population Biology 39: 129-147.