Assortative Matching, Reputation, and the Beatles Breakup
(Axel Anderson and Lones Smith)
Consider Becker's (1973) classic matching model, with unobserved types and stochastic publicly observed output.
If types are complements, then matching is assortative in the known Bayesian posteriors (the `reputations'). By the same token, any extension of Becker's non-stochastic matching model theory to a dynamic world would preserve assortative matching in every period.
We consider the two changes together (the dynamic stochastic world that we all live in), and discover a robust failure of Becker's result.
In the first period of the two period model, assortative matching is neither efficient nor an equilibrium for high enough discount factors.
A failure occurs for either the highest or the lowest types.
Absent a definite last period, the failure of assortative matching is no longer unqualified.
We instead produce a labor theoretic story:
Assortative matching fails around the highest (lowest) reputation agents for `low-skill (high-skill) concealing' technologies.
We then show that as the number of production outcomes grows, almost all technologies are these two forms.
Our theory implies the dynamic result that high-skill matches (like the Beatles) eventually break up.
Given the PAM failure, we show how induced information rents create wage profile discontinuities, and an upward wage-bias not justified by higher productivity.
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