Lutz Kilian

Biographical sketch

Lutz Kilian, Professor of Economics, received his Ph.D. in Economics from the University of Pennsylvania in 1996 and his M.A. in Development Banking from The American University in 1988. He joined the faculty at Michigan in 1996. Prior to his Ph.D., he worked for the research department of the Inter-American Development Bank in Washington, DC. During 2001-03 he served as an adviser to the European Central Bank in Frankfurt/M., Germany. Professor Kilian has been a research visitor at the Federal Reserve Board, the European Central Bank, and the International Monetary Fund. He has also been a consultant for the International Monetary Fund, the Inter-American Development Bank, the World Trade Organization, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Canada, the European Parliament, and the U.S. Energy Information Administration, among others. Professor Kilian has published over 80 articles. His work has appeared in leading general interest and field journals in economics and statistics. His research interests include time series econometrics, empirical macroeconomics, and energy economics. Much of his recent research is concerned with the sources of fluctuations in the price of oil, with the transmission of oil price shocks, with the role of speculation in oil markets, with measuring oil price expectations in financial markets, and with oil price forecasting. He has also published on topics in empirical macroeconomics and in international finance including the stagflation of the 1970s, the specification of monetary policy rules, the quantification of deflation risks, the role of sticky prices in business cycle models, and tests of exchange rate models. Finally, he has worked extensively on topics in time series econometrics with a special focus on bootstrap methods of inference for autoregressions, on impulse response analysis, on the estimation of structural parameters in DSGE models, on the specification and identification of structural VAR models, on forecasting and forecast scenarios, and on testing predictability. Professor Kilian has been an Associate Editor of the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, the Journal of Development Economics, and the Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, among other journals. He is a research fellow of the Centre for Economic Policy Analysis, the Center for Financial Studies, and the Euro Area Business Cycle Network.

Curriculum Vitae


  • Links to preliminary chapters of textbook on 'Structural Vector Autoregressive Analysis' (with Helmut Luetkepohl)


    Course Syllabi

    Links to homepages of professional interest

    Data links

    Software links

    Lutz Kilian,

    Department of Economics
    University of Michigan
    Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1220
    Phone: (734) 647-5612
    FAX: (734) 764-2769

    Last Updated: June 12, 2015