How dare we speak of the laws of chance?
Is not chance the antithesis of all law?
--Bertrand Russell

Math & Stat 425 / Sections 6 and 9

Introduction to Probability

Fall 2007

Instructor: John Stembridge
Office: 4854 East Hall
Phone: 936-1790
e-mail: jrs AT umich DOT edu
Office Hours: M 1-2:30, F 2:00-3:30

Text: Sheldon Ross, A First Course in Probability (7th ed.), Prentice-Hall, 2006.
We will cover most of Chapters 1-7 and a little of Chapter 8. I will be expecting you to read the relevant sections of the book, and not merely use the text as the place where you look up homework problems. But keep in mind that some of the sections include applications that are too advanced for this course. I'll try to give you specific alerts from time to time.

Prerequisite: Math 215 or 285 (multi-variable calculus).
The first month or so will be devoted to discrete probability, so it is easy to get lulled into thinking that you can get by without all of the calculus you studied years ago. If you don't remember how to deal with double integrals or related concepts, you'll need to review.

Homework is important!
There will be approximately 10 problem sets, normally due on Mondays. You can turn in assignments either in class or at my office (4854 East Hall) by 4:00pm of the date due. The first homework set will be due on Monday, September 17. Depending on the number of hours allotted to the grader for these sections, it is possible that not all assigned homework problems will be graded.

NO LATE HOMEWORK!

Collaboration on the homework is fine, but each person is responsible for writing up his or her own solutions.

Solutions to previous Homework Sets:

HW Set 1 - ( all in one page )
HW Set 2 - ( all in one page )
HW Set 3 - ( all in one page )
HW Set 4 - ( page one ) ( page two )
HW Set 5 - ( page one ) ( page two )
HW Set 6 - ( page one ) ( page two )
HW Set 7 - ( page one ) ( page two )
HW Set 8 - ( page one ) ( page two )
HW Set 9 - ( page one ) ( page two )
HW Set 10 - ( page one ) ( page two )

FAQ: Why don't you post the assignments on-line?
Short Answer: I don't want to give students another excuse not to attend class.
If this doesn't satisfy you, ask me about the Long Answer to this question.

Note: The Homework Solutions have been taken off-line.

Exams:

First Hour Exam: Wed., Oct. 10 ( Answer Key 1 ) ( Answer Key 2 )
Results: average=77.5, median=81.5, std dev=16

Second Hour Exam: Wed., Nov. 7 ( Answer Key 1 ) ( Answer Key 2 )
Results: average=76.8, median=80.5, std dev=16

Final (Section 6): Mon., Dec. 17, 1:30-3:30

Final (Section 9): Fri., Dec. 14, 1:30-3:30

The exams will be held in class; no makeups will be given.

Final Exam Results: Average=144/200, Median=146/200, StdDev=29.9.

Grades: will be weighted as follows

40%(Final) + 20%(Exam 1) + 20%(Exam 2) + 20%(Homework)

Your lowest homework set score will be dropped.

Final Update: The grades have been posted. Have a great holiday season!

This page last modified Tue Dec 18 22:47:46 EST 2007