Uncertain Science . . . Uncertain World

How will global warming affect the planet? When and where will earthquakes and other natural disasters strike? What caused the Space Shuttle Columbia to disintegrate during re-entry? The public is often puzzled when scientists can’t answer these questions with certainty, and wonder if there will ever be enough scientific information to make sound decisions for the future.

In his new book Uncertain Science…Uncertain World, geophysicist Henry Pollack argues that it is impossible to eliminate uncertainty, and that decision-makers – rather than treating uncertainty as an excuse for inaction – should recognize it as a stimulus for creativity, problem-solving and scientific progress.

In clear language aimed at a general audience, Pollack explores the nature of uncertainty itself, from the scientific laboratory to the stock market to the battlefield, and shows how non-scientists can apply their everyday experiences to evaluate and understand uncertain science. Pollack guides readers through the debate over global warming, showing how climate scientists work and make progress in an environment of uncertainty.

Several themes run throughout the book:

Uncertainty can never be fully eliminated from our lives, individually or as a society. Our understanding of the past and our anticipation of the future will always be obscured by uncertainty.
Waiting until uncertainty is eliminated before making important decisions is an implicit endorsement of the status quo, and often an excuse for maintaining it.
Predicting the long-term future is difficult, but we can make mid-course corrections to accommodate new developments.
Uncertainty – far from being a barrier to progress – actually promotes it.