F e d e r a l D e p o s i t o r y L i b r a r y P r o g r a m ADMINISTRATIVE NOTES Newsletter of the Federal Depository Library Program ---------------------------------------------------------------------- November 15, 2000 GP 3.16/3-2:21/15 (Vol. 21, no. 15) ---------------------------------------------------------------------- READERS EXCHANGE FUTURE GROWTH IN FEDERAL DOCUMENTS DEPOSITORY COLLECTIONS McKinley Sielaff University of Richmond Predicting Growth Forecasting the growth of any library collection is difficult these days. Planning for new spaces only increases the pressure to accurately predict how large a collection will be, not just a year from now, but five, ten, even twenty years into the future. No one better understands the complexity and dilemmas faced with forecasting the growth of a collection than do documents librarians. Libraries control their collection development: which books they buy, what periodicals they subscribe to, and what other materials and in which formats they acquire. With Federal Depository Library Program (FDLP) collections, however, significant unease results from external control of what a library receives based on a profile. The type, quantity, and quality of a depository collection rests in the hands of people who may well never set foot in our libraries let alone touch our documents. Thus, Federal depository collections present a unique set of challenges to space planners. Traditional Considerations Increases of space used to house depository collections in libraries are dependent on how much GPO prints. The number of publications from the GPO has increased over the decades. This has meant planning on increasing space needs year after year. Growth varies for specific parts of the collection; hence space needs vary dramatically as well. Individual titles have different space needs. Space needed for a title may vary from one year to the next. The Census Bureau shelves are a case in point. Every ten years the Census of Population and Housing demands a great deal of space, while every five years the Census of Economics and the Census of Agriculture quickly fill more space. To add to the confusion, parts of series are housed in different locations within the broader collection as a consequence of changes in issuing agencies and SuDocs classification. Changes in format also alter space requirements. New technologies store significantly more data in substantially less space than earlier. Consequentially, formulas used to calculate collection growth cannot be easily applied to predict adequate shelf space. Electronic formats The document library community was shocked when in 1995 GPO released its plans to migrate to electronic formats. "A key assumption of the plan is that nearly all of the information provided through the Federal Depository Library Program (FDLP) will be electronic by the end of fiscal year 1998" (Administrative Notes, v. 16, no.18; December 29, 1995, p. 1). Librarians questioned their conventional thoughts on space planning. With such a considerable reduction in paper publications, would libraries need any more space for documents? Although document librarians were skeptical about the feasibility of FDLP's time frame, none made the mistake of doubting that electronic information was the future for access to information via GPO. Using Current Space In thinking about future space, it is important to consider current requirements. Shelving items is not easy as workers insert slick pamphlets next to stapled monographs and folded maps next to odd sized kits. Where should one house pamphlets and what should one to do with floppy disks and CD-ROMs? This mix results in a mishmash of documents that make shelving difficult. Growth space is dependent on how the present collection is housed as well as how materials will be shelved in the future. Fortunately, it is possible to change the current space to deal with future space needs. A variety of types of shelving can be used. Compact shelving is one way to house more in less space. The entire collection or parts of the collection can be stored this way. In addition, locks are available to aid in protecting rare and valuable items. Slotted shelves are an option to deal with materials that are not consistent in physical shape and size. Spacers are easy to install, they can be placed at intervals as needed, and, moreover, they keep the collection neat and tidy, making browsing and retrieval more manageable. They also provide support which keeps materials in good condition. Other alternatives range from weeding to integrating parts of the collection into other library collections. One example would be to shelve government document periodical publications with the general current periodicals. If and when GPO stops distributing a title in paper format, additional space requirements for it will cease. Microform editions of some titles can be purchased. Storing microform in cabinets will save space. Remote storage is becoming a reality for many libraries; perhaps documents can be included. Tools of the Trade Coupling conventional tools for growth creates a foundation for planning. Traditionally, one used growth statistics from previous years. One year's growth or an average of the last few years can be the base calculation. Multiplying the base figure by the desired number of planning years results in a measurement of shelf requirements. This method works well for individual titles. However, it has limitations, especially when applied to an entire collection. Another approach is to consider the trends and changes in information dissemination. Librarians should be knowledgeable about congressional debates and GPO plans. These indicators can help librarians determine space needs and growth estimates in the new millennium. Traditional formulas are flawed. When applied to the current environment, they lead to unsound consequences. However, there are ways to cut down on the unpredictability of growth issues. Forecasts could be made using two different approaches. The first forecast is based on the rate of paper growth or decline for the past 5 years. That number is then used to calculate what the actual growth would be, continuing at that rate, for the time period. Forecast #2 is based on "current signals." Analyze and assess all pertinent statements released by GPO. Read Administrative Notes. Peruse documents on the FDLP Desktop at GPO Access such as Managing the FDLP Electronic Collection: A Policy and Planning Document. Take special note of speeches from the LPS director and the Public Printer. In addition to GPO there are other resources of information to consult. Don't overlook document expertise when gathering clues regarding trends. GOVDOC-L Archives and the GODORT website should be consulted. Check out what other depository librarians are doing. For example, university libraries like the University of Louisville and Washburn University are creating web accessible URL links for many government periodicals. Electronic equivalents for an ever-growing number of periodicals are posted. The University of Denver has a web page for document librarians. One table shows the number of publications shipped per item number for the past few calendar years. Approximately 10% of item numbers and classification numbers seem to cease while another 10% are created each year. Finally, think thoughtfully about how your collection will grow. Are the needs of your constituents changing? Will you continue to select all you are currently selecting? Will you be trying to complete past holdings such as filling in gaps in serials? Will you start growth in new areas? Requesting Space While acknowledging current trends, requesting less than sufficient space causes more problems than planning for an electronic-only future. More documents will migrate to an electronic format. It is also safe to predict the coordination efforts between libraries will increase. Depository library collections will benefit as it becomes increasingly easy to share collection development. We would all like to know exactly what GPO will be doing five years from now. We would like concrete answers about the future of paper and electronic documents, especially in regards to future building projects. I realize that whatever projections I make now regarding growth space for the documents collection for the next twenty years will last longer than I think. It appears that we have entered a period of conflict both in publishing and librarianship that will continue for some time. Moreover, we are in the nascent stage of e-government. In the past we have built repository libraries. Now, however, we are designing buildings for technologies that not only change from year to year but also ones that haven't been invented yet. While it may prove impossible to provide totally reliable predictions about anything relating to the Federal Depository Library Program, there are some avenues we may turn to for guidance. Not the least of whom are other professionals who work for and with the FDLP. My thanks to Laurie Canepa at the New Mexico State Library; Bill Sudduth the Head of Documents and Microforms at the University of South Carolina; Alan Zoellner, Government Information Librarian at the College of William and Mary; Thomas Lindsey, Government Publications Librarian at the University of Texas at Arlington. And last but not least, GPO/LPS. McKinley Sielaff University of Richmond Richmond, VA 23173 804-289-8851 bsielaff@richmond.edu