Research

Copyright Notice

Although several publications and conference manuscripts are made available through this page, copyright laws apply. In general, copyright for publications resides with the publisher, and copyright for conference papers resides with the author(s). You may print one copy for personal use. For any other reproduction or distribution, please contact the copyright holder.

Working Papers

Smith, Jeffrey, Alexander Whalley and Nathaniel Wilcox. 2011. "Are Program Participants Good Evaluators?" [Draft] [Online Appendix]

Dolton, Peter and Jeffrey Smith. 2011. "The Impact of the UK New Deal for Lone Parents on Benefit Receipt." [IZA Discussion Paper No. 5491]

Lise, Jeremy, Shannon Seitz and Jeffrey Smith. 2005. "Equilibrium Policy Experiments and the Evaluation of Social Programs." [Revised Draft of April 2005]

Lise, Jeremy, Shannon Seitz and Jeffrey Smith. 2005. "Evaluating Search and Matching Models Using Experimental Data." [Draft]

Talks

Smith, Jeffrey. "Putting the Evidence in Evidence Based Policy." State of the Art Lecture at the 2011 Canadian Economic Association Meetings [Slides]

Publications (partial list)

2011

Muriel, Alistair, and Jeffrey Smith. 2011. "On Educational Performance Measures" Fiscal Studies 32(2): 187-206.

IZA Discussion Paper 08/11

Published Version

2010

Smith, Jeffrey and Arthur Sweetman. 2010. “Putting the Evidence in Evidence-Based Policy” in Productivity Commission (ed.), Strengthening Evidence Based Policy in the Australian Federation, Volume 1: Proceedings. Canberra: Productivity Commission, 59-102.
Published Version

2008

Djebbari, Habiba and Jeffrey Smith. 2008. "Heterogeneous Program Impacts: Experimental Evidence from the PROGRESA Program." Journal of Econometrics. 145(1-2): 64-80.
IZA Discussion Paper 02/08
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

Galdo, Jose, Jeffrey Smith and Dan Black. 2008. "Bandwidth Selection and the Estimation of Treatment Effects with Unbalanced Data." Annales d'Economie et Statistique,91-92: 189-216.
IZA Discussion Paper 10/07

Goldberg, Jessica and Jeffrey Smith. 2008. "The Effects of Education on Labor Market Outcomes." In Edward Fiske and Helen Ladd, eds. Handbook of Education Finance and Policy. Routledge. 688-708.
Final Draft

Smith, Jeffrey. 2008. "Heterogeneity and Higher Education." In Michael S. McPherson and Morton Owen Schapiro, eds. Succeeding in College: What it Means and How to Make it Happen. New York: College Board. 131-144.
Final Draft

2007

Lechner, Michael and Jeffrey Smith. 2007. "What is the Value Added by Caseworkers?" Labour Economics 14(2): 135-151.
IZA Working Paper Version
Revision of 9/6/04
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

Bushway, Shawn and Jeffrey Smith. 2007. "Sentencing Using Statistical Treatment Rules: What We Don't Know Can Hurt Us." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 23(4): 377-387.
Final Draft
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

Plesca, Miana and Jeffrey Smith. 2007. "Evaluating Multi-Treatment Programs: Theory and Evidence from the U.S. Job Training Partnership Act." Empirical Economics 32(2-3):491-528.
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

Black, Dan, Jose Galdo and Jeffrey Smith. 2007. "Evaluating the Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services System Using a Regression Discontinuity Design." American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 97(2): 104-107.
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

2006

Black, Dan and Jeffrey Smith. 2006. "Evaluating the Returns to College Quality with Multiple Proxies for Quality." Journal of Labor Economics 24(3): 701-728.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

2005

Smith, Jeffrey and Petra Todd. 2005. "Does Matching Overcome LaLonde's Critique of Nonexperimental Estimators?" Journal of Econometrics 125(1-2):305-353.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)
Dehejia Response
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

Smith, Jeffrey and Petra Todd. 2005. "Rejoinder." Journal of Econometrics 125(1-2):365-375.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)
Dehejia Final Thoughts

Black, Dan, Kermit Daniel and Jeffrey Smith. 2005. College Quality and Wages in the United States." German Economic Review 6(3):415-443.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

2004

Black, Dan and Jeffrey Smith. 2004. "How Robust is the Evidence on the Effects of College Quality? Evidence from Matching." Journal of Econometrics. 121(1):99-124.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

Heckman, James and Jeffrey Smith. 2004. "The Determinants of Participation in a Social Program: Evidence from a Prototypical Job Training Program." Journal of Labor Economics. 22(4):243-298.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

Smith, Jeffrey. 2004. "Evaluating Local Economic Development Policies: Theory and Practice." In Alistar Nolan and Gina Wong, eds, Evaluating Local Economic and Employment Development How to Assess What Works among Programmes and Policies Paris: OECD, 287-332.
Final Version

Barnow, Burt and Jeffrey Smith. 2004."Performance Management of U.S. Job Training Programs: Lessons from the Job Training Partnership Act." Public Finance and Management 4(3):247-287.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

Barnow, Burt, and Jeffrey Smith. 2004. "Performance Management of U.S. Job Training Programs." In Christopher O'Leary, Robert Straits and Stephen Wandner (eds.), Job Training Policy in the United States. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 21-56.
Final Version

2003

Barnow, Burt, and Jeffrey Smith. 2003. "What Does the Evidence from Employment and Training Programs Reveal About the Likely Effects of Ticket to Work on Service Provider Behavior?" In Kalman Rupp and Stephen Bell (eds.), Paying for Results in Vocational Rehabilitation. Washington, DC: Urban Institute Press, 177-208.
Final Version

Black, Dan, Jeffrey Smith, Mark Berger and Brett Noel. 2003. "Is the Threat of Reemployment Services More Effective than the Services Themselves? Evidence from Random Assignment in the UI System." American Economic Review 93(4): 1313-1327.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

2002

Heckman, James, Carolyn Heinrich and Jeffrey Smith. 2001. "The Performance of Performance Standards." Journal of Human Resources 37(4):778-811.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

Smith, Jeffrey. 2002. "Comments" in David Laidler (ed.), Renovating the Ivory Tower: Canadian Universities as Contributors to the Knowledge Economy. Toronto, C.D. Howe Institute, 265-280.
Final Version

Smith, Jeffrey. 2002. "Comments on Chapter 10: Targeting Reemployment Services in Canada" in Randall W. Eberts, Christopher J. O'Leary and Stephen A. Wandner (eds.), Targeting Employment Services. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 303-308.
Final Version

Smith, Jeffrey. 2002. "Comments on Chapter 11: Predicting Long-term Unemployment in Canada: Prospects and Policy Implications" in Randall W. Eberts, Christopher J. O'Leary and Stephen A. Wandner (eds.), Targeting Employment Services. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 329-336.
Final Version

2001

Berger, Mark, Dan Black and Jeffrey Smith. 2001. "Evaluating Profiling as a Means of Allocating Government Services." In Michael Lechner and Friedhelm Pfeiffer (eds.), Econometric Evaluation of Active Labour Market Policies. Heidelberg: Physica, 59-84.
Final Version

Smith, Jeffrey and Petra Todd. 2001. "Reconciling Conflicting Evidence on the Performance of Propensity Score Matching Methods." American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 91(2): 112-118.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

2000

Daniel, Kermit, Dan Black and Jeffrey Smith. 2000. "Racial Differences in the Effects of College Quality and Student Body Diversity on Wages." In Gary Orfield (ed.), Diversity Challenged. Cambridge: Harvard Education Publishing Group, 221-232.
Final Version

Heckman, James, Neil Hohmann, Jeffrey Smith, with the assistance of Michael Khoo. 2000. "Substitution and Drop Out Bias in Social Experiments: A Study of an Influential Social Experiment." Quarterly Journal of Economics. 115(2): 651-694.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

Heckman, James, and Jeffrey Smith. 2000. "The Sensitivity of Experimental Impact Estimates: Evidence from the National JTPA Study." In David Blanchflower and Richard Freeman (eds.), Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries. Chicago: University of Chicago Press for NBER, 331-356.
Version With All Four Demographic Groups
Published Version

Smith, Jeffrey. 2000. "Evaluating Active Labor Market Policies: Lessons from North America." In MittAB-Schwerpunktheft 2000: Evaluation aktiver Arbeitsmarktpolitik, Nuremberg: IAB, 345-356.
Full English Version

Smith, Jeffrey. 2000. "A Critical Survey of Empirical Methods for Evaluating Employment and Training Programs." Schweizerische Zeitschrift fuer Volkswirtschaft und Statistik 136(3): 247-268.
Final Version
Proofs
Published version (Requires Journal Access)

1999

Heckman, James, Robert LaLonde, and Jeffrey Smith. 1999. "The Economics and Econometrics of Active Labor Market Programs." In Orley Ashenfelter and David Card (eds.), Handbook of Labor Economics, Volume 3A. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1865-2097.
Final Version

Heckman, James, and Jeffrey Smith. 1999. "The Pre-Program Earnings Dip and the Determinants of Participation in a Social Program: Implications for Simple Program Evaluation Strategies." The Economic Journal 109(457): 313-348.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

McKinnish, Terra, Seth Sanders, and Jeffrey Smith. 1999. "Estimates of Effective Guarantees and Tax Rates in the AFDC Program for the Post-OBRA Period." Journal of Human Resources 34(2): 312-245.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

Smith, Jeffrey. 1999. "New Deal Needs Some Figuring Out." The Guardian, August 2, pg. 19.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

1998

Heckman, James, Hidehiko Ichimura, Jeffrey Smith, and Petra Todd. 1998. "Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental Data." Econometrica 66(5): 1017-1098.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

Heckman, James, Lance Lochner, Jeffrey Smith, and Christopher Taber. 1998. "The Effects of Government Policies on Human Capital Investment, Unemployment and Earnings Inequality." In Drittes Oeffentliches DAAK Symposium - Third Public GAAC Symposium: Publications of the GAAC, Symposia, Volume 5. Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft.
Final Version

Heckman, James and Jeffrey Smith. 1998. "Evaluating the Welfare State." In Steiner Strom (ed.), Econometrics and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial. Cambridge University Press for Econometric Society Monograph Series, 241-318.
Final Version

Heckman, James, Jeffrey Smith, and Christopher Taber. 1998. "Accounting for Dropouts in Evaluations of Social Programs." Review of Economics and Statistics 80(1): 1-14.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

Smith, Jeffrey. 1998. "Can Public Job Training Reduce Youth Unemployment?" Policy Options 19(3): 26-29.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

1997

Heckman, James, Carolyn Heinrich, and Jeffrey Smith. 1997. "Assessing the Performance of Performance Standards in Public Bureaucracies." American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 87(2): 389-395.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

Heckman, James, Jeffrey Smith, with the assistance of Nancy Clements. 1997. "Making the Most Out of Programme Evaluations and Social Experiments: Accounting for Heterogeneity in Programme Impacts." Review of Economic Studies 64(4): 487-535.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

Smith, Jeffrey. 1997. "Review of `How Much is Your Vote Worth?' by Filip Palda." Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 16(1): 162-165.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

Heckman, James, Lance Lochner, Jeffrey Smith, and Christopher Taber. 1997. "The Effects of Government Policy on Human Capital Investment and Wage Inequality." Chicago Policy Review 1(2): 1-40.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

1996

Heckman, James, and Jeffrey Smith. 1996. "Experimental and Nonexperimental Evaluation." Gunther Schmid, Jacqueline O'Reilly and Klaus Schoemann (eds.), International Handbook of Labour Market Policy and Evaluation. Brookfield, VT: Edward Elgar, 37-88.
Final Version

Heckman, James, and Jeffrey Smith. 1996. "Social Experiments: Theory and Evidence." In Oekonomie und Gesellschaft, Jahrbuch 13: Experiments in Economics - Experimente in der Oekonomie. Frankfurt/Main; New York: Campus Verlag, 186-213.
Final Version

Heckman, James, Hidehiko Ichimura, Jeffrey Smith, and Petra Todd. 1996. "Sources of Selection Bias in Evaluating Social Programs: An Interpretation of Conventional Measures and Evidence on the Effectiveness of Matching as a Program Evaluation Method." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 93(23): 13416-13420.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

Heckman, James, Jeffrey Smith, and Christopher Taber. 1996. "What Do Bureaucrats Do? The Effects of Performance Standards and Bureaucratic Preferences on Acceptance into the JTPA Program." In Gary Libecap (ed.), Advances in the Study of Entrepreneurship, Innovation and Economic Growth: Reinventing Government and the Problem of Bureaucracy, Volume 7. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 191-217.
Final Version

1995

Heckman, James, and Jeffrey Smith. 1995. "Assessing the Case for Social Experiments." Journal of Economic Perspectives 9(2): 85-110.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Acccess)

1994

Heckman, James, Rebecca Roselius, and Jeffrey Smith. 1994. "U.S. Education and Training Policy: A Reevaluation of the Underlying Assumptions Behind the `New Consensus'." In L. C. Solomon and A. Levenson (eds.), Labor Markets, Employment Policy and Job Creation. Boulder: Westview Press, 83-121.
Final Version

Hotz, V. Joseph, Robert Miller, Seth Sanders, and Jeffrey Smith. 1994. "A Simulation Estimator for Dynamic Models of Discrete Choice." Review of Economic Studies 61(2): 265-289.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires Journal Access)

1993

Heckman, James, and Jeffrey Smith. 1993. "Assessing the Case for Randomized Evaluation of Social Programs." In Karsten Jensen and Per Kongshoj Madsen (eds.), Measuring Labour Market Measures - Evaluating the Effects of Active Labour Market Policy Initiatives. Copenhagen: Ministry of Labour, 35-95.
Final Version

Government Reports

Knight, Genevive, Stefan Speckesser, Jeffrey Smith, Peter Dolton and Joao Pedro Azevedo. 2006. Lone Parents Work Focused Interviews / New Deal for Lone Parents: Combined Evaluation and Further Net Impacts. UK Department for Work and Pensions Research Report No. 368.
[Published DWP Research Report]

Dolton, Peter, Joao Pedro Azevedo, and Jeffrey Smith. 2006. The Econometric Evaluation of the New Deal for Lone Parents. UK Department for Work and Pensions Research Report No. 356.
[Published DWP Research Report]

Black, Dan, Jeffrey Smith, Miana Plesca and Suzanne Shannon. 2003. Estimating the Duration of Unemployment Insurance Benefit Recipiency. Revised Final Report to USDOL.
[Revised Final Report]

Hui, Shek-Wai and Jeffrey Smith. 2002. The Labor Market Impacts of Adult Education and Training in Canada. Report Prepared for HRDC.
[Revised Final Version]
[Published HRSDC Report]

Hui, Shek-Wai and Jeffrey Smith. 2002. Issues in the Design of Canada's Adult Education and Training Survey. Report Prepared for the HRDC.
[Published HRSDC Report]

Hui, Shek-Wai and Jeffrey Smith. 2002. The Determinants of Participation in Adult Education and Training in Canada. Report Prepared for HRDC.
[Final Version]

Smith, Jeffrey. 1992. The JTPA Selection Process: a Descriptive Analysis. Report prepared for the U.S. Department of Labor.
[Final Version]

Resting Papers

Smith, Jeffrey and Arthur Sweetman. 2001. "Improving the Evaluation of Employment and Training Programs in Canada." Paper Presented at HRDC Conference on Evaluation Methodologies, Ottawa. [Draft] (The content is almost all applicable to the US and UK as well as Canada).

Daniel, Kermit, Dan Black and Jeffrey Smith. 1997. "College Quality and the Wages of Young Men." [Draft]

Smith, Jeffrey. 1997. "Measuring Earnings Levels Among the Poor: Evidence from Two Samples of JTPA Eligibles." [Draft]

Smith, Jeffrey. 1997. "Measuring Earnings Dynamics Among the Poor: Evidence from Two Samples of JTPA Eligibles." [Draft]

Daniel, Kermit, Dan Black and Jeffrey Smith. 1995. "College Characteristics and the Wages of Young Women." [Draft]

Smith, Jeffrey. 1990. "The Determinants of Voter Behavior in the Oregon Marijuana Initiative." [Draft]

Data

Smith, Jeffrey. 2003. "Sampling Frame for the Eligible Non-Participant Sample in the National JTPA Study" [Final Version]

National Job Training Partnership Act Study Full Baseline Survey Codebook [NORC Version]

Humor

Smith, Jeffrey. "The Politician's Guide to the Returns to Schooling." [Final Version]

Smith, Jeffrey and Kermit Daniel. 1990. "Economics to Sociology Phrase Book." [Skit Show Version]

Poetry

Smith, Jeffrey. 1985. "Ode to Chicago." [Final version of a poem that captures my thoughts about Chicago shortly after arriving for graduate school]