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Table of contents (papers are in reverse chronological order within categories)
Papers in submission
Other working papers and book manuscripts
Publications (articles, chapters in books, and books)
Government reports
Resting papers
Humor
Poetry
See the separate page on the data from the National JTPA Study for materials related to those data.
Papers and book manuscripts in submission
Hirth, Richard, Teresa Gibson, Helen Levy, Jeffrey Smith, Sebastian Calonico, and Anup Das. 2016. "Long-term Health Spending Persistence Among the Privately Insured." Fiscal Studies, forthcoming.
[Draft available on request]
Levy, Helen, Edward Norton, and Jeffrey Smith. 2016. "Tobacco Regulation and Cost-Benefit Analysis: How Should We Value Forgone Consumer Surplus." Under revision for American Journal of Health Economics.
NBER Working Paper No. 22471
Smith, Jeffrey. 2016. "Experiments: How Useful Are They?" Under revision for IZA World of Labor.
[Draft available on request]
Calonico, Sebastian, and Jeffrey Smith. 2015. "The Women of the National Supported Work Demonstration." Under revision for Journal of Labor Economics.
[Draft available on request]
Dolton, Peter, and Jeffrey Smith. 2011. "The
Impact of the UK New Deal for Lone Parents on Benefit Receipt." Under revision for Economic Journal.
IZA
Discussion Paper No. 5491
Other working papers
CIA TESTS
IZA WORKING PAPER
CONSEQUENCES OF MISMATCH
IZA WORKING PAPER
PART EVAL BOOK MANSCRIPT
Koremenos, Barbara, and Jeffrey Smith. 2014. "When to Select a Selection Model?"
[Draft available on request]
WIA
NBER WORKING PAPER
Smith, Jeffrey, Alexander Whalley and Nathaniel Wilcox.
2014. "Are Program Participants Good Evaluators?"
DRAFT
STR 2008
DRAFT
RD WITH JOSE AND DAN
[Draft available on request]
Lise, Jeremy, Shannon Seitz and Jeffrey Smith.
2004. "Equilibrium Policy Experiments and the Evaluation of Social
Programs."
NBER WORKING PAPER
Publications
Dillon, Eleanor, and Jeffrey Smith. 2017. "The Determinants of Mismatch Between Students and Colleges." Journal of Labor Economics, forthcoming.
Published version on journal webpage (requires journal access)
Barnow, Burt, and Jeffrey Smith. 2016. CHAPTER IN NBER BOOK
Smith, Jeffrey, and Arthur Sweetman. 2016. "Viewpoint: Estimating the Causal Effect of Programs and Policies." Canadian Journal of Economics, forthcoming.
[Draft available on request]
McCall, Brian, Jeffrey Smith and Conny Wunsch. 2016. "Government-Sponsored Vocational Training" in Eric Hanushek, Stephen Machin, and Ludger Woessman, eds., Handbook of the Economics of Education, Volume 5. Amsterdam: North-Holland. 479-652.
Published version (requires series access)
Lise, Jeremy, Shannon Seitz and Jeffrey Smith. 2015. "Evaluating Search and Matching Models Using Experimental
Data." IZA Journal of Labor Economics 4:16. [Special issue in honor of Dale Mortensen]
Published version at journal webpage (open access)
Hirth, Richard, Teresa Gibson, Helen Levy, Jeffrey Smith, Sebastian Calonico, and Anup Das. 2015. "New Evidence on the Persistence of High Health Spending." Medical Care Research and Review 72(3): 277-297.
Published version at journal webpage (requires journal access)
Camplieti, Michele, Morley Gunderson, and Jeffrey Smith. 2014. "The Effect of Vocational Rehabilitation on the Employment Outcomes of Disability Insurance Beneficiaries: New Evidence from Canada." IZA Journal of Labor Policy 3:10.
Published version at journal webpage (open access)
Fitzenberger, Bernd, Michael Lechner, and Jeffrey Smith. 2013. "Estimation of Treatment Effects: Recent Developments and Applications." Empirical Economics 44(1): 1-12. [Introduction to a special issue on program evaluation edited by the authors]
Published version at journal webpage (requires journal access)
Special issue page (requires journal access)
PERFORMANCE STANDARDS BOOK
Smith, Jeffrey. 2011. "Improving Impact Evaluation in Europe," in Douglas Besharov and Phoebe Cottingham, eds., The Workforce Investment Act: Implementation Experiences and Evaluation Findings. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 473-494.
Book at Upjohn Institute webpage
Book at Amazon
Book at Barnes and Noble
Muriel, Alistair,
and Jeffrey Smith. 2011. "On Educational Performance Measures"
Fiscal Studies 32(2): 187-206.
Published
Version
(requires journal access)
IZA
Discussion Paper 08/11
Smith, Jeffrey and Arthur Sweetman. 2010. “Putting
the Evidence in Evidence-Based Policy” in Productivity Commission (ed.), Strengthening
Evidence Based Policy in the Australian Federation, Volume 1: Proceedings.
Canberra: Productivity Commission, 59-102.
Published
Version
Djebbari, Habiba and Jeffrey Smith. 2008.
"Heterogeneous Program Impacts: Experimental Evidence from the PROGRESA
Program." Journal of Econometrics.
145(1-2): 64-80.
Published
Version (requires journal access)
Galdo, Jose, Jeffrey Smith and Dan Black. 2008.
"Bandwidth Selection and the Estimation of Treatment Effects with
Unbalanced Data." Annales d'Economie et Statistique,91-92: 189-216.
IZA
Discussion Paper 10/07
Goldberg, Jessica and Jeffrey Smith. 2008.
"The Effects of Education on Labor Market Outcomes." In Edward Fiske and Helen Ladd, eds. Handbook of Education
Finance and Policy. Routledge. 688-708.
Final
Draft
Smith, Jeffrey. 2008. "Heterogeneity and Higher Education." In
Michael S. McPherson and Morton Owen Schapiro, eds. Succeeding
in College: What it Means and How to Make it Happen. New York: College
Board. 131-144.
Final
Draft
Lechner, Michael and Jeffrey Smith. 2007.
"What is the Value Added by Caseworkers?" Labour Economics
14(2): 135-151.
Published
Version (requires journal access)
IZA
Working Paper Version
Bushway, Shawn and Jeffrey Smith. 2007.
"Sentencing Using Statistical Treatment Rules: What We Don't Know Can Hurt
Us." Journal of Quantitative Criminology 23(4): 377-387.
Published
Version (requires journal access)
Plesca, Miana and Jeffrey Smith. 2007.
"Evaluating Multi-Treatment Programs: Theory and Evidence from the U.S.
Job Training Partnership Act." Empirical Economics 32(2-3):491-528.
Published
Version (requires journal access)
Black, Dan, Jose Galdo and Jeffrey Smith. 2007.
"Evaluating the Worker Profiling and Reemployment Services System Using a
Regression Discontinuity Design." American Economic Review Papers and
Proceedings 97(2): 104-107.
Published
Version (Requires Journal Access)
Black, Dan and Jeffrey Smith. 2006.
"Evaluating the Returns to College Quality with Multiple Proxies for
Quality." Journal of Labor Economics 24(3): 701-728.
Final
Version
Published
Version (Requires Journal Access)
Smith, Jeffrey and Petra Todd. 2005. "Does
Matching Overcome LaLonde's Critique of Nonexperimental Estimators?" Journal
of Econometrics 125(1-2):305-353.
Final
Version
Published
Version (Requires Journal Access)
Dehejia
Response
Published
Version (Requires Journal Access)
Smith, Jeffrey and Petra Todd. 2005.
"Rejoinder." Journal of Econometrics 125(1-2):365-375.
Final
Version
Published
Version (Requires Journal Access)
Dehejia
Final Thoughts
Black, Dan, Kermit Daniel and Jeffrey Smith. 2005. College Quality and Wages in the United States." German
Economic Review 6(3):415-443.
Final
Version
Published
Version (Requires Journal Access)
Black, Dan and Jeffrey Smith. 2004. "How
Robust is the Evidence on the Effects of College Quality? Evidence
from Matching." Journal of Econometrics.
121(1):99-124.
Final
Version
Published
Version (Requires Journal Access)
Heckman, James and Jeffrey Smith. 2004. "The
Determinants of Participation in a Social Program: Evidence from a Prototypical
Job Training Program." Journal of Labor Economics.
22(4):243-298.
Final
Version
Published
Version (Requires Journal Access)
Smith, Jeffrey. 2004. "Evaluating Local Economic Development Policies:
Theory and Practice." In Alistar Nolan and Gina Wong, eds,
Evaluating Local Economic and Employment Development How to Assess What
Works among Programmes and Policies Paris: OECD, 287-332.
Final
Version
Barnow, Burt and Jeffrey Smith.
2004."Performance Management of U.S. Job Training Programs: Lessons from
the Job Training Partnership Act." Public Finance and Management
4(3):247-287.
Final
Version
Published
Version (Requires Journal Access)
Barnow, Burt, and Jeffrey Smith. 2004.
"Performance Management of U.S. Job Training Programs." In
Christopher O'Leary, Robert Straits and Stephen Wandner (eds.), Job Training
Policy in the United States. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for
Employment Research, 21-56.
Final Version
Barnow, Burt, and Jeffrey Smith. 2003. "What
Does the Evidence from Employment and Training Programs Reveal About the Likely
Effects of Ticket to Work on Service Provider Behavior?" In Kalman Rupp and Stephen Bell (eds.), Paying for Results in
Vocational Rehabilitation. Washington, DC: Urban Institute Press,
177-208.
Final Version
Black, Dan, Jeffrey Smith, Mark Berger and Brett Noel.
2003. "Is the Threat of Reemployment Services More Effective than the
Services Themselves? Evidence from Random Assignment in the
UI System." American Economic Review 93(4): 1313-1327.
Final
Version
Published Version
(Requires Journal Access)
Heckman, James, Carolyn Heinrich and Jeffrey Smith.
2001. "The Performance of Performance Standards." Journal of Human
Resources 37(4):778-811.
Final
Version
Published Version
(Requires Journal Access)
Smith, Jeffrey. 2002. "Comments" in David Laidler (ed.), Renovating
the Ivory Tower: Canadian Universities as Contributors to the Knowledge
Economy. Toronto, C.D. Howe Institute, 265-280.
Final Version
Smith, Jeffrey. 2002. "Comments on Chapter 10: Targeting Reemployment
Services in Canada" in Randall W. Eberts, Christopher J. O'Leary and
Stephen A. Wandner (eds.), Targeting Employment Services. Kalamazoo, MI:
W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 303-308.
Final Version
Smith, Jeffrey. 2002. "Comments on Chapter 11: Predicting Long-term
Unemployment in Canada: Prospects and Policy Implications" in Randall W.
Eberts, Christopher J. O'Leary and Stephen A. Wandner (eds.), Targeting
Employment Services. Kalamazoo, MI: W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment
Research, 329-336.
Final Version
Berger, Mark, Dan Black and Jeffrey Smith. 2001.
"Evaluating Profiling as a Means of Allocating Government Services."
In Michael Lechner and Friedhelm Pfeiffer (eds.), Econometric Evaluation of
Active Labour Market Policies. Heidelberg: Physica, 59-84.
Final
Version
Smith, Jeffrey and Petra Todd. 2001.
"Reconciling Conflicting Evidence on the Performance of Propensity Score
Matching Methods." American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings
91(2): 112-118.
Final Version
Published Version
(Requires Journal Access)
Daniel, Kermit, Dan Black and Jeffrey Smith. 2000.
"Racial Differences in the Effects of College Quality and Student Body
Diversity on Wages." In Gary Orfield (ed.), Diversity Challenged.
Cambridge: Harvard Education Publishing Group, 221-232.
Final Version
Heckman, James, Neil Hohmann, Jeffrey Smith, with the assistance of Michael
Khoo. 2000. "Substitution and Drop Out Bias in
Social Experiments: A Study of an Influential Social Experiment." Quarterly Journal of Economics. 115(2): 651-694.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires
Journal Access)
Heckman, James, and Jeffrey Smith. 2000. "The
Sensitivity of Experimental Impact Estimates: Evidence from the National JTPA
Study." In David Blanchflower and Richard Freeman
(eds.), Youth Employment and Joblessness in Advanced Countries.
Chicago: University of Chicago Press for NBER, 331-356.
Version With All Four Demographic Groups
Published
Version
Smith, Jeffrey. 2000. "Evaluating Active Labor Market Policies: Lessons
from North America." In MittAB-Schwerpunktheft 2000: Evaluation aktiver
Arbeitsmarktpolitik, Nuremberg: IAB, 345-356.
Full
English Version
Smith, Jeffrey. 2000. "A Critical Survey of Empirical Methods for
Evaluating Employment and Training Programs." Schweizerische
Zeitschrift fuer Volkswirtschaft und Statistik 136(3): 247-268.
Final Version
Proofs
Published version (Requires
Journal Access)
Heckman, James, Robert LaLonde, and Jeffrey Smith.
1999. "The Economics and Econometrics of Active Labor Market
Programs." In Orley Ashenfelter and David Card (eds.), Handbook of
Labor Economics, Volume 3A. Amsterdam: North-Holland, 1865-2097.
Final Version
Heckman, James, and Jeffrey Smith. 1999. "The
Pre-Program Earnings Dip and the Determinants of Participation in a Social
Program: Implications for Simple Program Evaluation Strategies." The
Economic Journal 109(457): 313-348.
Final Version
Published Version
(Requires Journal Access)
McKinnish, Terra, Seth Sanders, and Jeffrey Smith.
1999. "Estimates of Effective Guarantees and Tax Rates in the AFDC Program
for the Post-OBRA Period." Journal of Human Resources 34(2):
312-245.
Final Version
Published Version
(Requires Journal Access)
Smith, Jeffrey. 1999. "New Deal Needs Some Figuring Out." The Guardian, August 2, pg. 19.
Final Version
Published
Version (Requires Journal Access)
Heckman, James, Hidehiko Ichimura, Jeffrey Smith, and
Petra Todd. 1998. "Characterizing Selection Bias Using Experimental
Data." Econometrica 66(5): 1017-1098.
Final Version
Published Version
(Requires Journal Access)
Heckman, James, Lance Lochner, Jeffrey Smith, and
Christopher Taber. 1998. "The Effects of Government Policies on
Human Capital Investment, Unemployment and Earnings Inequality." In Drittes
Oeffentliches DAAK Symposium - Third Public GAAC Symposium: Publications of the
GAAC, Symposia, Volume 5. Baden-Baden: Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft.
Final Version
Heckman, James and Jeffrey Smith. 1998.
"Evaluating the Welfare State." In Steiner Strom (ed.), Econometrics
and Economic Theory in the 20th Century: The Ragnar Frisch Centennial.
Cambridge University Press for Econometric Society Monograph Series, 241-318.
Final Version
Heckman, James, Jeffrey Smith, and Christopher Taber.
1998. "Accounting for Dropouts in Evaluations of Social Programs." Review
of Economics and Statistics 80(1): 1-14.
Final Version
Published Version
(Requires Journal Access)
Smith, Jeffrey. 1998. "Can Public Job Training Reduce Youth
Unemployment?" Policy Options 19(3): 26-29.
Final Version
Published Version
(Requires Journal Access)
Heckman, James, Carolyn Heinrich, and Jeffrey Smith.
1997. "Assessing the Performance of Performance Standards in Public
Bureaucracies." American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings
87(2): 389-395.
Final Version
Published Version
(Requires Journal Access)
Heckman, James, Jeffrey Smith, with the assistance of Nancy Clements. 1997.
"Making the Most Out of Programme Evaluations and Social Experiments:
Accounting for Heterogeneity in Programme Impacts." Review of Economic
Studies 64(4): 487-535.
Final Version
Published Version (Requires
Journal Access)
Smith, Jeffrey. 1997. "Review of `How Much is Your Vote Worth?' by
Filip Palda." Journal of Policy Analysis and Management 16(1):
162-165.
Final Version
Published Version
(Requires Journal Access)
Heckman, James, Lance Lochner, Jeffrey Smith, and
Christopher Taber. 1997. "The Effects of Government Policy on Human
Capital Investment and Wage Inequality." Chicago Policy Review
1(2): 1-40.
Final Version
Published Version
(Requires Journal Access)
Heckman, James, and Jeffrey Smith. 1996.
"Experimental and Nonexperimental Evaluation." Gunther Schmid,
Jacqueline O'Reilly and Klaus Schoemann (eds.), International Handbook of
Labour Market Policy and Evaluation. Brookfield, VT: Edward Elgar, 37-88.
Final Version
Heckman, James, and Jeffrey Smith. 1996.
"Social Experiments: Theory and Evidence." In Oekonomie und
Gesellschaft, Jahrbuch 13: Experiments in Economics - Experimente in der
Oekonomie. Frankfurt/Main; New York: Campus Verlag, 186-213.
Final Version
Heckman, James, Hidehiko Ichimura, Jeffrey Smith, and
Petra Todd. 1996. "Sources of Selection Bias in Evaluating Social
Programs: An Interpretation of Conventional Measures and Evidence on the
Effectiveness of Matching as a Program Evaluation Method." Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
93(23): 13416-13420.
Final Version
Published Version
(Requires Journal Access
Heckman, James, Jeffrey Smith, and Christopher Taber.
1996. "What Do Bureaucrats Do? The Effects of
Performance Standards and Bureaucratic Preferences on Acceptance into the JTPA
Program." In Gary Libecap (ed.), Advances in the Study of
Entrepreneurship, Innovation and Economic Growth: Reinventing Government and
the Problem of Bureaucracy, Volume 7. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press, 191-217.
Final Version
Heckman, James, and Jeffrey Smith. 1995.
"Assessing the Case for Social Experiments." Journal of Economic
Perspectives 9(2): 85-110.
Final Version
Published Version
(Requires Journal Acccess
Heckman, James, Rebecca Roselius, and Jeffrey Smith.
1994. "U.S. Education and Training Policy: A Reevaluation of the
Underlying Assumptions Behind the `New
Consensus'." In L. C. Solomon and A. Levenson (eds.), Labor Markets,
Employment Policy and Job Creation. Boulder: Westview Press, 83-121.
Final Version
Hotz, V. Joseph, Robert Miller, Seth Sanders, and Jeffrey
Smith. 1994. "A Simulation Estimator for Dynamic Models of Discrete
Choice." Review of Economic Studies 61(2): 265-289.
Final Version
Published Version
(Requires Journal Access)
Heckman, James, and Jeffrey Smith. 1993.
"Assessing the Case for Randomized Evaluation of Social Programs." In
Karsten Jensen and Per Kongshoj Madsen (eds.), Measuring Labour Market
Measures - Evaluating the Effects of Active Labour Market Policy Initiatives.
Copenhagen: Ministry of Labour, 35-95.
Final Version
Knight, Genevive, Stefan Speckesser, Jeffrey Smith, Peter
Dolton and Joao Pedro Azevedo. 2006. Lone Parents Work Focused
Interviews / New Deal for Lone Parents: Combined Evaluation and Further Net
Impacts. UK Department for Work and Pensions Research Report No. 368.
[Published
DWP Research Report]
Dolton, Peter, Joao Pedro Azevedo, and Jeffrey Smith.
2006. The Econometric Evaluation of the New Deal for Lone Parents. UK
Department for Work and Pensions Research Report No. 356.
[Published
DWP Research Report]
Black, Dan, Jeffrey Smith, Miana Plesca and Suzanne
Shannon. 2003. Estimating the Duration of Unemployment Insurance Benefit
Recipiency. Revised Final Report to USDOL.
[Revised
Final Report]
Hui, Shek-Wai and Jeffrey Smith. 2002. The Labor
Market Impacts of Adult Education and Training in Canada. Report Prepared for
HRDC.
[Revised
Final Version]
[Published
HRSDC Report]
Hui, Shek-Wai and Jeffrey Smith. 2002. Issues in
the Design of Canada's Adult Education and Training Survey. Report Prepared for
the HRDC.
[Published
HRSDC Report]
Hui, Shek-Wai and Jeffrey Smith. 2002. The
Determinants of Participation in Adult Education and Training in Canada. Report
Prepared for HRDC.
[Final
Version]
Smith, Jeffrey. 1992. The JTPA Selection Process: a Descriptive Analysis. Report
prepared for the U.S. Department of Labor.
[Final Version]
Smith, Jeffrey and Arthur Sweetman. 2001. "Improving the Evaluation of Employment and Training Programs in Canada." Paper Presented at HRDC Conference on Evaluation Methodologies, Ottawa. [Draft] (The content is almost all applicable to the US and UK as well as Canada).
Daniel, Kermit, Dan Black and Jeffrey Smith. 1997. "College Quality and the Wages of Young Men." [Draft]
Smith, Jeffrey. 1997. "Measuring Earnings Levels Among the Poor: Evidence from Two Samples of JTPA Eligibles." [Draft]
Smith, Jeffrey. 1997. "Measuring Earnings Dynamics Among the Poor: Evidence from Two Samples of JTPA Eligibles." [Draft]
Daniel, Kermit, Dan Black and Jeffrey Smith. 1995. "College Characteristics and the Wages of Young Women." [Draft]
Smith, Jeffrey. 1990. "The Determinants of Voter Behavior in the Oregon Marijuana Initiative." [Draft]
Smith, Jeffrey. 2003. "Sampling Frame for the Eligible Non-Participant Sample in the National JTPA Study" [Final Version]
National Job Training Partnership Act Study Full Baseline Survey Codebook [NORC Version]
Smith, Jeffrey. "The Politician's Guide to the Returns to Schooling." [Final Version]
Smith, Jeffrey and Kermit Daniel. 1990. "Economics to Sociology Phrase Book." [Skit Show Version]
Smith, Jeffrey. 1985. "Ode to Chicago." [Final version of a poem that captures my thoughts about Chicago shortly after arriving for graduate school]