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National Championship

I've been asked if it's possible for Oklahoma State to make it into the National Championship game. The short answer is no, and the long answer is that it's pretty unlikely.

The first thing to say is that Oklahoma State does not have a realistic shot at passing Alabama if LSU wins. One third of the voters would need to move Oklahoma State to number two, and that just wouldn't happen.

There are two possible scenarios that could get Oklahoma State into the national championship if LSU loses. Suppose it's a close game and the voters decide to keep LSU at #1. Then a very confusing thing could happen. I believe the computer rankings would move Oklahoma State to #1 while dropping Alabama to #3. That belief is based on the strength of schedule for what would be three one-loss teams. In that case it becomes basically a coin flip between Alabama and Oklahoma State.

The second scenario is a little bit more predictable. If LSU gets blown out, the voters could drop them to #3 or lower, and then anything could happen. Of course all this is conditional on Oklahoma State winning and the voters moving them ahead of Stanford and Virginia Tech. So a lot of things would have to happen to affect the almost-inevitable Alabama/LSU rematch.

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