SOLSTICE:  AN ELECTRONIC JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHY AND MATHEMATICS.
Volume IV, Number 2.  Winter, 1993.
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\centerline{\big SOLSTICE:}
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\centerline{\bf AN ELECTRONIC JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHY AND MATHEMATICS}
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\centerline{\bf WINTER, 1993}
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\centerline{\bf Volume IV, Number 2}
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\centerline{\bf Institute of Mathematical Geography}
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\centerline{\bf Ann Arbor, Michigan}
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\centerline{\bf SOLSTICE}
\line{Founding Editor--in--Chief:
{\bf Sandra Lach Arlinghaus} \hfil}
\line{Institute of Mathematical Geography \hfil}
\smallskip
\centerline{\bf EDITORIAL BOARD}
\smallskip
\line{{\bf Geography} \hfil}
\line{{\bf Michael Goodchild},
University of California, Santa Barbara. \hfil}
\line{{\bf Daniel A. Griffith},
Syracuse University. \hfil}
\line{{\bf Jonathan D. Mayer},
University of Washington;
joint appointment in School of Medicine.\hfil}
\line{{\bf John D. Nystuen},
University of Michigan.\hfil}
\smallskip
\line{{\bf Mathematics} \hfil}
\line{{\bf William C. Arlinghaus},
Lawrence Technological University. \hfil}
\line{{\bf Neal Brand},
University of North Texas. \hfil}
\line{{\bf Kenneth H. Rosen},
A. T. \& T. Bell Laboratories. \hfil}
\smallskip
\line{{\bf Engineering Applications} \hfil}
\line{{\bf William D. Drake},
University of Michigan, \hfil}
\smallskip
\line{{\bf Education} \hfil}
\line{{\bf Frederick L. Goodman},
University of Michigan, \hfil}
\smallskip
\line{{\bf Robert F. Austin, Ph.D.} \hfil}
\line{President, Austin Communications Education Services \hfil}
\smallskip
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\smallskip

The purpose of {\sl Solstice\/} is to promote  interaction
between geography and mathematics.   Articles in which  elements
of   one  discipline  are used to shed light on  the  other  are
particularly sought.   Also welcome,  are original contributions
that are purely geographical or purely mathematical.   These may
be  prefaced  (by editor or author) with  commentary  suggesting
directions  that  might  lead toward  the  desired  interaction.
Individuals  wishing to submit articles,  either short or full--
length,  as well as contributions for regular  features,  should
send  them,  in triplicate,  directly to the  Editor--in--Chief.
Contributed  articles  will  be refereed by  geographers  and/or
mathematicians.   Invited articles will be screened by  suitable
members of the editorial board.  IMaGe is open to having authors
suggest, and furnish material for, new regular features.

The opinions expressed are those of the authors, alone, and the
authors alone  are responsible for the accuracy of the facts in
the articles.
\smallskip
\noindent {\bf Send all correspondence to:
Sandra Arlinghaus,  2790 Briarcliff, Ann Arbor MI 48105.
Solstice@UMICHUM}
\smallskip
Suggested form for citation.   If  standard  referencing  to the
hardcopy in the  IMaGe Monograph Series is not used (although we
suggest that reference  to that  hardcopy be included along with
reference  to  the  e-mailed  copy  from which  the hard copy is
produced), then we suggest the following  format for citation of
the electronic copy.  Article,  author, publisher (IMaGe) -- all
the usual--plus a notation as to the time marked electronically,
by the process of transmission,  at the  top  of the  recipients
copy.   Note  when  it was sent from Ann Arbor (date and time to
the  second)  and  when  you  received  it (date and time to the
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This  document is produced using the typesetting  program,
{\TeX},  of Donald Knuth and the American Mathematical  Society.
Notation  in  the electronic file is in accordance with that  of
hard copy for on The University of Michigan's Xerox 9700 laser--
printing  Xerox  machine,  using IMaGe's commercial account with
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Unless otherwise noted, all regular features"  are  written by
the Editor--in--Chief.
\smallskip
{\nn  Upon final acceptance,  authors will work with IMaGe
to    get  manuscripts   into  a  format  well--suited  to   the
requirements   of {\sl Solstice\/}.  Typically,  this would mean
that  authors    would  submit    a  clean  ASCII  file  of  the
manuscript,  as well as   hard copy,  figures,  and so forth (in
camera--ready form).     Depending on the nature of the document
and   on   the  changing    technology  used  to  produce   {\sl
Solstice\/},   there  may  be  other    requirements  as   well.
Currently,  the  text  is typeset using   {\TeX};  in that  way,
mathematical formul{\ae} can be transmitted   as ASCII files and
inexperienced  in the use of {\TeX} should note that  this    is
not  a what--you--see--is--what--you--get"  display;  however,
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{\nn  Copyright  will  be taken out in  the  name  of  the
Institute of Mathematical Geography, and authors are required to
transfer  copyright  to  IMaGe as a  condition  of  publication.
There are no page charges; authors will be given  permission  to
make reprints from the electronic file,  or to have IMaGe make a
single master reprint for a nominal fee dependent on  manuscript
length.   Hard  copy of {\sl Solstice\/} is  available at a cost
of \$15.95 per year (plus shipping and handling; hard copy is issued once yearly, in the Monograph series of the Institute of Mathematical Geography. Order directly from IMaGe. It is the desire of IMaGe to offer electronic copies to interested parties for free. Whether or not it will be feasible to continue distributing complimentary electronic files remains to be seen. Presently {\sl Solstice\/} is funded by IMaGe and by a generous donation of computer time from a member of the Editorial Board. Thank you for participating in this project focusing on environmentally-sensitive publishing.} \vskip.5cm \copyright Copyright, December, 1993 by the Institute of Mathematical Geography. All rights reserved. \vskip1cm {\bf ISBN: 1-877751-55-3} {\bf ISSN: 1059-5325} \vfill\eject %---------------------------------------------------------------- %---------------------------------------------------------------- \centerline{\bf TABLE OF CONTENT} \smallskip \noindent{\bf 1. WELCOME TO NEW READERS AND THANK YOU NOTES} \smallskip \noindent{\bf 2. PRESS CLIPPINGS---SUMMARY} \smallskip \noindent{\bf 3. ARTICLE} \smallskip \noindent{\bf Villages in Transition: Elevated Risk of Micronutrient Deficiency} \noindent {\bf William D. Drake, S. Pak, I. Tarwotjo, Muhilal, J. Gorstein, R. Tilden}. ABSTRACT; INTRODUCTION; Objectives of Study; The Setting -- The Eastern Islands of Indonesia; Nutritional Problems of the Area; The Study; Data Processing and Analysis; MOVING FROM TRADITIONAL TO MODERN VILLAGE LIFE: RISKS DURING TRANSITION; Relative Health Risks at the Community Level; Elevated Risk for Villages in Transition; Classifying Villages According to their Transition Status; TESTING FOR ELEVATED RISKS IN TRANSITION VILLAGES; Undernutrition; Vitamin A Deficiency; Iodine Deficiency; Iron Deficiency; Intestinal Worms; TESTING FOR RISK OVERLAP WITHIN THE HEALTH SECTOR; Methods; Determination of overlap in risk; CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS; Summary of Evidence for Elevated Risk in Transitional Villages; Policy Implications; Implementing a Targeting Strategy. \smallskip \noindent{\bf 4. DOWNLOADING OF SOLSTICE} \smallskip \noindent{\bf 5. INDEX to Volumes I (1990), II (1991), III (1992), and IV.1 (1993) of {\sl Solstice}.} \smallskip \noindent{\bf 6. OTHER PUBLICATIONS OF IMaGe } \noindent{\bf 7. SELECTED RECENT PUBLICATIONS OF INTEREST INVOLVING {\sl Solstice\/} BOARD MEMBERS, AND SOME GOINGS ON ABOUT ANN ARBOR} \vfill\eject %---------------------------------------------------------------- %---------------------------------------------------------------- \centerline{\bf 1. WELCOME TO NEW READERS} Welcome to new subscribers! We hope you enjoy participating in this means of journal distribution. Instructions for downloading the typesetting have been repeated in this issue, near the end. They are specific to the {\TeX} installation at The University of Michigan, but apparently they have been helpful in suggesting to others the sorts of commands that might be used on their own particular mainframe installation of {\TeX}. New subscribers might wish to note that the electronic files are typeset files---the mathematical notation will print out as typeset notation. For example, $$\Sigma_{i=1}^n$$ when properly downloaded, will print out a typeset summation as i goes from one to n, as a centered display on the page. Complex notation is no barrier to this form of journal production. \centerline{\bf THANK YOU NOTES AND GOOD WISHES} Many thanks to the members of the Editorial Board of {\sl Solstice\/}. Some of them have refereed articles and offered suggestions, as have others. Thanks to all. We send our very best wishes to Michael Goodchild. In this issue, we announce the availability of {\sl Solstice\/} on a GOPHER. Many thanks to Bruce Long of the Department of Mathematics of Arizona State University for his initiative in putting this journal on their GOPHER (PI.LA.ASU.EDU). It was kind of him to think of {\sl Solstice\/} and his constructive actions are greatly appreciated. So, too, are those of Eugene Fosnight of The University of Michigan, School of Natural Resources and Environment, for his aid in technical matters. Thanks, Gene! \vskip.5cm %--------------------------------------------------------------- %--------------------------------------------------------------- \centerline{\bf 2. PRESS CLIPPINGS---SUMMARY} \noindent Brief write-ups about {\sl Solstice\/} have appeared in the following publications: \noindent 1. {\bf Science}, Online Journals" Briefings. [by Joseph Palca] 29 November 1991. Vol. 254. \smallskip \noindent 2. {\bf Science News}, Math for all seasons" by Ivars Peterson, January 25, 1992, Vol. 141, No. 4. \smallskip \noindent 3. {\bf Newsletter of the Association of American Geographers}, June, 1992. \smallskip \noindent 4. {\bf American Mathematical Monthly}, Telegraphic Reviews" --- mentioned as one of the World's first electronic journals using {\TeX}," September, 1992. \smallskip \noindent 5. {\bf Harvard Technology Window}, 1993. \smallskip \noindent 6. {\bf Graduating Engineering Magazine}, 1993. \noindent 7. {\bf On Internet}, 1994. If you have read about {\sl Solstice\/} elsewhere, please let us know the correct citations (and add to those above). Thanks. In addition, {\sl Solstice\/} is an object of study in at least one Ph.D. dissertation. We are happy to share information with concerning electronic journal production and are delighted when others share with us, as well. \vfill\eject Publications of the Institute of Mathematical Geography have, in addition, been reviewed or noted in \smallskip 1. {\sl The Professional Geographer\/} published by the Association of American Geographers; \smallskip 2. The {\sl Urban Specialty Group Newsletter\/} of the Association of American Geographers; \smallskip 3. {\sl Mathematical Reviews\/} published by the American Mathematical Society; \smallskip 4. {\sl The American Mathematical Monthly\/} published by the Mathematical Association of America; \smallskip 5. {\sl Zentralblatt\/} fur Mathematik, Springer-Verlag, Berlin \smallskip 6. {\sl Mathematics Magazine\/}, published by the Mathematical Association of America. \smallskip 7. {\sl Newsletter\/} of the Association of American Geographer. \smallskip 8. {\sl Journal of The Regional Science Association\/}. \smallskip 9. {\sl Journal of the American Statistical Association\/}. \smallskip \vfill\eject \centerline{\bf Villages in Transition:} \centerline{\bf Elevated Risk of Micronutrient Deficiency} \vskip.5cm \centerline{William D. Drake (author to whom comment should be directed)} \centerline{Community Systems Foundation, Ann Arbor, MI USA} \centerline{School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan} \centerline{Department of International Health, School of Public Health, University of Michigan} \vskip.2cm \centerline{S. Pak} \centerline{Community Systems Foundation, Ann Arbor, MI USA} \centerline{Department of International Health, School of Public Health, University of Michigan} \vskip.2cm \centerline{I. Tarwotjo} \centerline{Nutrition Directorate, Ministry of Health, Republic of Indonesia, Jakarta, Indonesia} \vskip.2cm \centerline{Muhilal} \centerline{Center for Research and Development in Nutrition, Bogor, Indonesia} \vskip.2cm \centerline{ J. Gorstein} \centerline{ Community Systems Foundation, Ann Arbor, MI USA} \centerline{ Department of International Health, School of Public Health University of Michigan} \vskip.2cm \centerline{ R. Tilden} \centerline{ Department of International Health, School of Public Health, University of Michigan} \vskip.5cm \noindent Based on a presentation at the International Vitamin A Consultative Group Meeting, Human Nutrition Institute, International Life Sciences Institute, 8-12 March, 1993, Arusha, Tanzania. \vskip1in \noindent{\bf ABSTRACT} Some researchers have suggested that as villages move from traditional living patterns emphasizing self-sufficiency, to ones featuring economic development, there is a vulnerable transition period in which families of the community are at greater health risk. This elevated risk results from many factors such as employment volatility, changes in food consumption patterns, composition of the extended family, temporary migration, and child rearing behavior. Elevated risk, if present, would strike hard at children who are most vulnerable and readily reflect adverse changes in family status. Analysis of data from the Eastern Islands of Indonesia supports this hypothesis of elevated risk during transition. Villages in the study area were ranked by a classification system used in Indonesia to measure level of development ranging from traditional agricultural villages, to modern, market-oriented villages. This ranking system not only is related to the amount of infrastructure available in the community, but also includes many other factors. The approach followed takes advantage of the multitude of parameters measured in this study by portraying joint risk of vitamin A deficiency, iodine deficiency disorders, iron deficiency anemia as well as other health indicators such as measles, worm infestation, and diarrheal diseases. By examining community-level prevalences for all three micronutrient deficiencies this methodology offers unique opportunity to study how the risk for these conditions covary at the community level, and thus provides important information for targeting communities with integrated control program activities. Amongst all villages with high prevalences of any of the three micronutrient deficiencies, there is about a 70\% overlap' in risk between at least two of the three micronutrients, with 22\% of the villages being at high risk for all three micronutrient deficiencies. Villages in transition are shown to have higher prevalences of total goiter rate, lower mean hemoglobin levels, higher helminthic infection rates, and higher prevalences of wasting and underweight malnutrition, all at statistically significant levels. They also tend to have slightly higher prevalences of low serum retinol, although not statistically significant within the sample sizes in this study. While focusing upon villages in transition is but one type of targeting, there is a qualitative difference between this one and other targeting strategies. In this instance the targeting can be based upon {\sl anticipating\/} the risk rather than reacting to risk estimates based on surveys. Because the government is both planner and resource allocator for its development programs, difficulties experienced during movement through a transition period can be monitored and dampened by allocating special integrated activities to the region receiving development assistance. \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf INTRODUCTION} \vskip.2cm \noindent{\bf Objectives of Study} As governments strive to maximize the effectiveness of their limited resources, the issue of identifying and targeting those most in need of health and nutrition assistance becomes paramount. This paper presents a unique approach to determining these needs for assistance. The approach combines recent theoretical developments in the field of population-environment dynamics with general resource allocation strategies to suggest a method for identifying high-risk population groups. As part of this inquiry, measurements of the extent of overlap among risk factors is made which can be utilized to improve the efficiency of program implementation. Perhaps most important, the methodology which is proposed permits governments to anticipate difficult problems so that preventive rather than solely curative measures can be taken in a timely manner. This paper begins by describing the setting in which the study was undertaken. Next, the theoretical model is presented along with the possible applicability of the model to real world situations at hand. Third, data is used to determine whether the model has predictive capacity, and finally conclusions and policy implications stemming from the analyses are presented. \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf The Setting: The Eastern Islands of Indonesia} In 1990 the Government of Indonesia commissioned the Center for Nutritional Research and Development of Bogor, Indonesia to undertake a study on the health conditions of the Eastern Islands. Community Systems Foundation of Ann Arbor, Michigan was asked to provide technical assistance through the A.I.D. VITAL Field Support Project. The Government was especially concerned with deficiencies in micronutrients that were expected to be a strong contributing factor to poor health status of the children in those islands. A cross-sectional prevalence study was carried out in October 1990 through June 1991. The purpose of the study was to gather data on the prevalence and distribution of specific micronutrient deficiencies, including vitamin A deficiency (VAD), iron deficiency anemia (IDA), iodine deficiency disorders (IDD), and protein energy malnutrition (PEM). It was planned that this information would be used for assistance in the targeting of specific nutrition and health interventions in these remote islands. The study provides the first substantial body of information regarding the prevalence of these conditions in the Eastern Islands. The Eastern Island provinces of Indonesia include the islands east of Java and Kalimatan (Borneo), the island of Sulewesi (the Celebes), the islands of the province of Maluku, the islands of Irian Jaya, Nusa Tenggara Barat (NTB), Nusa Tenggara Timor (NTT), and Timor Timur (Tim Tim). However, only Maluku, NTT, Tim Tim, and Irian Jaya were selected for this study as these provinces were not fully represented in earlier surveys. Most of the provinces are culturally distinct from the rest of Indonesia, as well as from each other. Dietary patterns, terrain, and climate also differ, leading to a belief that causes of malnutrition may differ from the rest of the country and among the four provinces. Irian Jaya, the easternmost island, is populated by subsistence hill tribes whose inter-tribal warfare has kept development efforts at a minimum until they were released from Dutch Colonial domination in the early 1960s. In the last thirty years, the development of roads, communication networks, construction of schools and health centers have done much to bring this province more into the mainstream of Indonesian life. However, the population and their lifestyle is still quite different from most of the country. Through the transmigration of groups from Java to Irian Jaya, the population is now quite diverse representing a wide range of socioeconomic and cultural backgrounds. Timor Timur (Tim Tim) is an even more recent addition to the Republic of Indonesia. Until 1974 it was under the jurisdiction of Portugal. In that year, Portugal divested itself of all its colonial possessions, including Tim Tim. Tim Tim was then integrated into the Republic of Indonesia, and for several years specific pockets of resistance to this integration made the expansion of governmental social welfare programs problematic. Under the Portuguese, very little effort was made to educate the rural population, and semi-feudal political systems kept power in the hands of a few rich Portuguese families living in the capital, Dili. The results of this survey suggest that Tim Tim has made progress and is in the process of expanding its rural social welfare systems. The province of Maluku is the location of the original spice islands for which the European countries originally set sail to the Orient. Nutmeg and mace originated from the island of Banda (which is in this province), and cloves were found on the island of Ambon. During the 16th century this area was a site of confrontation between the Portuguese, the first Europeans to settle in the area, and the Dutch. Different islands in the province still display characteristics which have been adopted from these two western European nations. Nusa Tenggara Timor (NTT), like Maluku, is one of the original provinces of Indonesia. It has a dryer climate than most of the country. Unlike the other eastern provinces, it has characteristics which are similar to those of the rest of the country, and its level of participation in social welfare programs is the highest of all the provinces in the survey. \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf Nutritional problems of the area} \vskip.2cm \noindent{\sl Vitamin A deficiency \/} --- Vitamin A deficiency has long been known to occur in Indonesia. Consequently, Indonesia has been one of the leaders in the world in research of this important problem. Blindness due to xerophthalmia had been the primary justification for these investments. However, in 1985, studies provided some evidence that sub-clinical VAD, even when not associated with nutrition blindness, leads to increased risk of mortality, thereby introducing and additional impetus for its control. The island of Ambon in Maluku was included in the 1978 National Nutritional Blindness Survey, but the other four provinces were not surveyed because of logistic and cost constraints. The island of Biak was recognized as having high levels of xerophthalmia in 1981, due to the energetic efforts of the head of Kabupaten medical services. It was suggested that xerophthalmia might also be a problem in NTT in the early 1980s. \vskip.2cm \noindent{\sl Nutritional Anemia\/} --- Of all the micronutrient deficiencies, nutritional anemia is undoubtedly the most widespread. However, its distribution and magnitude is least known throughout the country. Young children and pregnant and lactating women are the most likely to be at risk. Nutritional anemia has been associated with impaired cognitive and motor development of children, low birthweight, and increased risk for mortality in pregnant women as well as reduced productivity in adult males. Data generated from the present study provides the first population-based prevalence information on anemia available in the country. \vskip.2cm \noindent{\sl Protein Energy Malnutrition \/} --- Protein Energy Malnutrition (PEM) is a problem associated with poor food availability and excessive infection. It is identified in children who are short for their age (stunted) and/or underweight for their age, and in some cases with diminished body mass for their stature (wasted). The method by which PEM has been assessed in this study is through anthropometry. The primary measurements taken were the height, weight, and age of preschool children. These different measures were then combined to form three indices: weight-for-age, height-for-age, and weight-for-height. Height-for-age is generally considered a measure of food availability and overall socioeconomic conditions during the development of the child, while weight-for-height (body mass on the frame of the child) is considered to better reflect insult to the child either due to illness or recent acute food shortage. Weight-for-age is a combination of these two indices, although limited since it fails to distinguish, thin children from short children with adequate muscle and fat in the classification of the undernourished. \vskip.2cm \noindent{ \sl Iodine Deficiency Disorders \/} --- Iodine deficiency disorders are a group of health and developmental problems associated with inadequate iodine intake. Historically, the magnitude of this problem has been measured by palpable goiter rates, which is the most obvious and specific symptom associated with low iodine intake. Among the other symptoms of IDD, cretinism (mental and developmental sub-normalcy) is found in areas in which iodine deficiency is endemic, and a whole spectrum of more subtle symptoms also have been attributed to insufficient iodine nutriture. These include reduced IQ, deafness, and delayed motor skill development. Several biochemical parameters are sometimes used to assess the magnitude of IDD including: urinary iodine, thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH), and levels of other thyroid hormones (T3 and T4). \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf The Study} \vskip.2cm The study focuses on vitamin A deficiency (VAD) in children in the age group 0 to 6 years. Ophthalmological examinations were carried out to look for clinical eye signs of VAD Blood collections were performed for the measurement of serum vitamin A in a 11\% subsample. From blood samples taken, hemoglobin levels were also assessed. This same group of children were examined for protein energy malnutrition. Pregnant women in the same communities were tested for anemia. Iodine deficiency disorders (IDD) were studied in elementary school children through examination for palpable goiter as well as through assessing iodine levels in urine specimens collected from a 10\% subsample. From each sub-province (kecamatan) surveyed, two elementary schools were chosen which were located close to the village and census unit (wilayah) in order to examine children 0-6 years along with pregnant women. Every pregnant woman chosen in the survey area was examined for general health conditions, goiter, and hemoglobin. Urine samples to check for iodine levels were not taken. \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf Data Processing and Analysis} The data was converted to electronic form using a customized computer and entry program equipped with built-in checks to minimize data entry error. In addition, several thorough rounds of data checking and cleaning were carried out, to ensure the internal validity of the data. Table 1 lists the variables used in the present analysis. Using FoxPro Version 2.0 and SPSS-PC Version 3.0, these variables were created by aggregating household data up to the village level to derive community-level variables. From the 245 villages, 56.3\% were accepted with loss due to missing values, leaving a total of 138 villages included in the analysis. Most of this data loss is due to the fact that iodine deficiency in schoolchildren was measured only in those villages with schools. \topinsert \vskip.5cm \hrule \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf TABLE 1} \noindent All data were gathered for preschool children unless otherwise indicated. \vskip.5cm \settabs\+\qquad&Variable\qquad&Prevalence of Xerophthalmia (X1B)--clinical sign of VAD\cr %sample line \+&Variable&Description\cr \vskip.5cm \+& MN-VITA &Mean Serum Vitamin A Levels\cr \+& MN-HEMO &Mean Serum Hemoglobin Levels\cr \+& CASES &Prevalence of Xerophthalmia (X1B)--clinical sign of VAD\cr \+& MEAS &Prevalence of Measles in the last 3 months\cr \+& POX &Prevalence of Chicken Pox in the last 3 months\cr \+& DIA &Prevalence of Severe Diarrhea in the last 3 months\cr \+& WORM &Prevalence of Parasitic Infestation in last 3 months\cr \+& MN-WHZ &Mean Weight for Height z-score (wasting)\cr \+& STUN &Prevalence of moderate Stunting\cr \+& UNDERWT &Prevalence of moderate Underweight\cr \+& WAST &Prevalence of moderate Wasting\cr \+& TGR &Total Goiter Rate (among schoolchildren)\cr \+& VGR &Visible Goiter Rate (among schoolchildren)\cr \+& MN-BMI &Mean Body Mass Index (among pregnant mothers)\cr \+& TGR-M &Total Goiter Rate (among pregnant mothers)\cr \+& VGR-M &Visible Goiter Rate (among pregnant mothers)\cr \+& ED-HH &Mean Education level of head of household\cr \+& ED-MOM &Mean Education level of mother\cr \vskip.5cm \hrule \vskip.5cm \endinsert These continuous variables were chosen from the dataset to depict the nutrition and health of the sample population. The first two variables, MN-VITA and MN-HEMO represent sera data collected in preschoolers in Eastern Island villages from which the serum vitamin A levels and serum hemoglobin levels were assayed. These data were aggregated to the village level as mean serum vitamin A and hemoglobin levels. \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf MOVING FROM TRADITIONAL TO MODERN VILLAGE LIFE:} \noindent{\bf RISKS DURING TRANSITION} \vskip.2cm \noindent{\bf Relative Health Risks at the Community Level} The determination of the prevalence of nutriture deficiency in the Eastern Islands marks the first stage in devising an effective intervention. Another critical element is the determination of the extent to which assistance can be targeted to high-risk populations. The findings of this survey show wide variation in health status among provinces and, more important, within each province. Such variation implies that considerable benefits might accrue from targeting -- provided that a practical method could be devised. If the actual identification of high risk groups for targeting is costly, the relative gains from targeting are lost. For example, in most settings, it is not practical to conduct a careful household survey to determine relative risk. Other less expensive means must be found which can act as a reasonable surrogate for these rigorous but expensive approaches. Thus, the Eastern Islands Prevalence Survey was designed, in part, to test the effectiveness of using variables collected at the {\sl desa\/} (village) level to estimate {\sl household\/} health risk. The question is not whether perfect correspondence exists between village and household but rather, are there easily gathered village-level variables which do a reasonable job in ranking regions. If village estimates can be used to indicate {\sl relative\/} risk, then a targeting strategy, at the sub-province (Kabupaten or Kecematan) level may be practical. On the other hand, if there is not a strong correspondence, practical targeting is less likely. A sequence of steps was undertaken to examine this question. First, variables gathered at the community level were related to the average nutritional status for individuals and other health indicators of households in the desa. Next, the strength of association between household and desa-level data was assessed using Pearson correlation coefficients and analysis of variance. The final objective was to select a subset of variables which could be gathered at the desa level {\bf and} which would relate to household health conditions. A wide range of variables gathered at both the household and community level were analyzed for their targeting effectiveness. These results are presented elsewhere ({ \sl Eastern Islands Micronutrient Deficiency Prevalence Study\/}, Center for Research and Development in Nutrition, Nutrition Directorate, Ministry of Health, Republic of Indonesia, October 1991). In this paper we will explore an alternative (or supplementary) scheme for determining relative risk -- one based on emerging theoretical developments in the field of population-environment dynamics. \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf Elevated Risk for Villages in Transition} \vskip.2cm Recent research suggests that there is a special vulnerability as a community moves from relative traditional living patterns emphasizing self-sufficiency, to ones featuring economic development (see Drake, W. D. Toward Building A Theory of Population Environment Dynamics: A Family of Transitions," {\sl Population-Environment Dynamics\/}, University of Michigan Press, Ann Arbor, 1993). The theory asserts that movement from traditional to developed" status is characterized by the region passing through a series of transitions in each of many sectors of its society. For example, one well known transition is the demographic transition. At the onset of this transition, births and deaths are both high and are in relative equilibrium with each other. Historically, births exceed deaths by small amounts so that the total population rises only very gradually. Occasionally, famine or epidemic forces a decline in total population but in general, changes in rates are slow. During the transition, however, death rates drop dramatically, usually due to improvement in the health condition of the population. This change in health is caused by many, often interrelating factors. After some time lag, the birth rate begins to drop and generally declines until it is in approximate balance with the death rate again. But there are in fact many similar transitions each related to different sectors of the community. This dynamic is visualized as a {\bf family} of transitions. That is, not only has demographic and epidemiologic transition been described but also deforestation, toxicity, agricultural, energy, education, and urbanization transitions as well as many others. It is argued that for each transition there is a critical period when society is especially vulnerable. During that period, rates of change are high, societal adaptive capacity is limited, in part due to this rapid change, and there is a greater likelihood that key relationships in the dynamic become severely imbalanced. The trajectory that a community takes through a transition varies, depending upon many factors operating at local and national levels. Transitions not only are occurring in many different sectors but also at different scales, both temporal and spatial. At times, a community experiences several transitions simultaneously, which can raise social vulnerability as they amplify the effects of each other. It is beyond the scope of this paper to describe the details of these dynamics except to note that for any given location experiencing rapid modernization, such as a village in one of the Eastern Island Provinces of Indonesia, it is reasonable to conjecture that there might be special vulnerability (for a comprehensive description of the transitions existing in a community, see {\sl ibid.\/} 301-355). If this were true, then health indicators of {\sl at-riskness\/} might indicate magnified problems in those villages experiencing an overall transition from traditional self-sufficiency to relative modernity. This elevated risk, it is argued, results from many factors such as employment volatility, changes in food consumption patterns, composition of the extended family, temporary migration, and child rearing behavior. Elevated risk, if present, would strike hard at children who are most vulnerable, and readily reflect adverse changes in family health status. It follows then, if transitional communities are experiencing vulnerability which then translates into heightened child health at-riskness, a targeting strategy might be devised based on some readily available community-level indicator. Such a targeting strategy might provide a practical policy tool. \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf Classifying Villages According to Their Transition Status} \vskip.2cm Fortunately, in Indonesia the government has for years maintained an up-to-date record of the transitional" status of villages throughout the country. Villages in the study area, like all other parts of the country, have been ranked by a classification system used to measure level of development. This ranking system is related to the amount of infrastructure available in the community but also includes many other factors. The village scale ranged from traditional self-sufficiency (Pradesa) to modern market oriented communities (Swasembada) (formal village classification of villages was provided by the Indonesian Government). Pradesa villages (pre-villages) are generally located in remote regions and have relatively little contact with the national economy. The main occupation is agriculture, and education levels are very low. Traditional custom has a dominant influence and these villages are considered traditional." The next level of development is classified as Swadaya, and is still characterized by very strong influence of traditional custom, $\ldots $strong relations among villagers and social control based on the family system." Infrastructure, while more advanced than Pradesa villages, is still relatively basic. Average education is low, communication and transportation are minimal, production methods traditional, and facilities for social activities rarely observed. The third level of development in villages, Swakarya, shows traditional customs further in transition. Influences from outside are observed in the village which are deemed to $\ldots $be changing ways of thinking." Job opportunities are shifting from primary to secondary sectors. Secondary sector here is defined as small industry and crafts. Traditional custom and religion is in transition, education and skill levels are judged to be medium, communication and social facilities increasing to a $\ldots $medium level," and institutional and governmental tasks functioning in a more developed manner. The highest development classification level is Swasembada. Traditional custom and religion is not influencing development$\ldots $," education and skill of the villagers is high, and members take initiatives and responsibility for local action. Communication, productivity, marketing, and social facilities are above standard. Village output/yield in all sectors is high and job opportunities are mainly in the third sector" (commercial and service). In order to maximize the generality of the results of this study, the balance of this paper will use generic terminology when labelling villages. Pradesa villages will be called traditional, Swadaya and Swakarya called transitional and Swasembada, modern or developed. \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf TESTING FOR ELEVATED RISKS IN TRANSITION VILLAGES} If there is validity to the hypothesis that there is elevated risk during the time villages are going through a transition from traditional to developed status, then one might expect at least some health status indicators to change unfavorably during this period (it is quite possible that, due to low measurement specificity and sensitivity, indicators could show no heightened at-riskness during transitional periods when, in fact, there were risks but the opposite is less likely to be true.) Analysis of Eastern Islands data supports this hypothesis of elevated risk. However, as is true for any study, association does not necessarily mean causation. There are always possible alternative or competing explanations for the cause of the observed outcome. In the case of this analysis, the most probable competing explanation for elevated risk in transitional villages would be inherent differences among villages which are unrelated to their level of development. For example, does village topography have an effect upon the outcome, especially for health indicators known to be related to geography such as iodine deficiency? Other competing explanations know to be related to child health risk, such as educational level of the head of household or of the mother are part of the fabric of a transitional village and, for our purposes, do not need to be separated. In fact, to a large degree, they define the heightened at-riskness of transitional villages. Whenever possible, we shall attempt to provide what evidence there is for refuting this competing explanation. But regardless of the causes, the fact still remains that is associations exist, then an intervention strategy can be proposed which reflects this elevated risk, regardless of its cause. Table 1 in an earlier section, provides a listing of the available health indicators which, while gathered in some cases at the individual household level, in all instances have been aggregated to the village level. This section presents the results of analysis for the major indicators available, organized by village transitional status. It should be remembered that due to data gathering protocol, the number of villages available for analysis, varies by each indicator variable. \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf Undernutrition} A sample of the nutritional status of preschool children in each of 138 villages was taken during the course of this study. Height, weight, and age were measured and key anthropometric indices of child nutriture were calculated and standardized using the NCHS reference standard. Village prevalence estimates were determined from these samples and related to village transition status. Both weight-for-height (wasting) and weight-for-age showed statistically significant association with village type. Weight-for-height (a measure of stunting) was also at a higher rate in transitional villages although not statistically significant. Figure 1 presents the prevalence of wasting by village type. Both types of transitional villages (early and late) showed statistically significant higher malnutrition. For the purposes of presentation in the figures that follow, both transitional types have been combined into one category. \midinsert \vskip4.5in {\bf Figure 1.} Prevalence of Wasting by Village Type (145 villages). Three bars are displayed in this chart: one for traditional, one for transitional, and one for modern villages. The height of the bar measures the percentage of prevalence (\%$<$-2 S.D. NCHS). Traditional shows wasting of 5.6\%; transitional at 10.4\%; and, modern at 7.5\%. The source is 1991 Eastern Islands Prevalence Survey. \endinsert Figure 2 shows the prevalence of underweight malnutrition for preschool children in the same 138 villages. Transitional villages again show a higher risk for malnutrition. Using the NCHS standard and a cut-pint of less than two standard deviations from mean values, transitional villages experienced 48\% malnutrition while traditional and modern villages showed 35\% and 41\% respectively. These differences were statistically significant at the p=.01 levels (p=.0065 and .0009 respectively). \midinsert\vskip4.5in {\bf Figure 2.} Prevalence of Underweight by Village Type (145 villages). Three bars are displayed in this chart: one for traditional, one for transitional, and one for modern villages. The height of the bar measures the percentage of prevalence (\%$<$-2 S.D. NCHS). Traditional shows underweight of 35.7\%; transitional at 46.8\%; and, modern at 41.2\%. The source is 1991 Eastern Islands Prevalence Survey. \endinsert \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf Vitamin A Deficiency} Two indicators of vitamin A deficiency were measured during this study; mean serum vitamin A level and prevalence of xerophthalmia as indicated by detection of bitot's spots (X1B). Because of an extremely low prevalence of xerophthalmia, the only variable amenable to analysis of transitional villages is vitamin A serum levels. Figure 3 presents the prevalence of low serum retinol in preschool children by village type. The cut-point used to define community at-riskness is the WHO recommended 5\% of the population with serum retinol levels$<$10 mcg/dl. Although all village types showed prevalences of low serum VA well above the cut-off for being a public health risk, transitional villages experience the highest prevalence of low serum retinol although not at statistically significant levels. \midinsert \vskip4.5in {\bf Figure 3.} Prevalence of Low Serum Retinol in Schoolage Children by Village Type (145 villages). Three bars are displayed in this chart: one for traditional, one for transitional, and one for modern villages. The height of the bar measures the percentage of prevalence (\%$<$10 mcg/dl). Traditional shows low serum retinol of about 12.5\%; transitional at about 13\%; and, modern at about 10\%. The source is 1991 Eastern Islands Prevalence Survey. \endinsert \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf Iodine deficiency (IDD)} Iodine deficiency disorders (IDD) is used to define a group of functional disabilities associated with inadequate levels of iodine ranging from impaired thyroid function to debilitating cretinism. Iodine is normally ingested in water or plants which have extracted it from soil. IDD is most likely to occur in isolated rural areas that are ecologically deficient in iodine and have little contact with food products from areas with higher iodine availability. Three different measures were used to assess iodine deficiency in this study; visible goiter rate, total goiter rate, and percent of villages with total goiter rate above the WHO defined at-risk prevalence rate of ten percent. Figure 4 shows the visible goiter rate classified by village category. Again, risk was shown to be highest in transitional villages. Figures 5 and 6 also show much higher risk rates in transitional villages using the other indicators of deficiency, total goiter rates, and percent of villages with high total goiter rates (p=0.0045). \midinsert \vskip5in {\bf Figure 4.} Visible Goiter Rate in Schoolage Children by Village Type (171 villages). Three bars are displayed in this chart: one for traditional, one for transitional, and one for modern villages. The height of the bar measures the mean village visible goiter rate. Traditional shows visible goiter rate of 0.098\%; transitional at 0.525\%; and, modern at 0.041\%. The source is 1991 Eastern Islands Prevalence Survey. \endinsert \midinsert \vskip5in {\bf Figure 5.} Total Goiter Rate in Schoolage Children by Village Type (171 villages). Three bars are displayed in this chart: one for traditional, one for transitional, and one for modern villages. The height of the bar measures the mean village total goiter rate. Traditional shows total goiter rate of 6.8\%; transitional at 16.1\%; and, modern at 6.9\%. The source is 1991 Eastern Islands Prevalence Survey. \endinsert \midinsert \vskip5in {\bf Figure 6.} Percent of Villages with High Total Goiter Rate (169 villages). (Prevalence of village total goiter rate > 10\% -- schoolchildren.) Three bars are displayed in this chart: one for traditional, one for transitional, and one for modern villages. The height of the bar measures the percentage villages with high total goiter rate. Traditional shows percentage of villages with high total goiter rate at 26.7\%; transitional at 49.5\%; and, modern at 31.3\%. The source is 1991 Eastern Islands Prevalence Survey. \endinsert Because there is often correspondence between topography and iodine deficiency, an attempt was made to refute this competing explanation for the observed outcome. Figure 7 shows the relationship between topography and village transitional status. Topography was categorized as lowlands, mountainous, and coastal. If the competing explanation for high risk in transitional villages is, in fact, their mountainous topography, one would expect mountainous villages to be overrepresented in the transitional village category. The data in Figure 7 indicate exactly the opposite. Fewer transitional villages lie in mountainous areas than in either the low land or coastal village categories. While this observation does not fully refute the competing explanation, it strongly supports transitional villages as the underlying explanation for high risk. \midinsert \vskip4.5in {\bf Figure 7.} Topography by Village Type: Counts of Villages. (145 villages). (Percent villages in mountainous regions.) Three sets of three bars each are displayed in this chart: one for traditional (low, mountainous, and coastal topography), one for transitional (low, mountainous, and coastal topography), and one for modern (low, mountainous, and coastal topography) villages. The length of the bar measures the percentage of villages in mountainous (or coastal or low) regions. 43\% of the traditional villages are mountainous; 26.4\% of the transitional villages are mountainous; and, 43.7\% of the modern villages are mountainous. The source is 1991 Eastern Islands Prevalence Survey. \endinsert \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf Iron deficiency} Anemia is the most widespread micronutrient disorder in the world. It has profound consequences on adult productivity, impaired cognitive and motor development in children, and in pregnant women can significantly complicate the risk of intrauterine growth, low birthweight, and perinatal mortality. As many as fifty percent of all maternal deaths in developing countries may be associated with anemia and may be the exclusive cause in as many as twenty percent of all maternal deaths (ACC/SCN Workshop; Preventing Anemia; SCN News 6:1-6). In addition to an inadequate intake of iron in the diet, anemia may be brought on by exposure to certain infectious diseases. Malaria, hookworm, schistosomiasis, and other infections are related to the etiology of anemia. In the Eastern Islands of Indonesia, the role that malaria plays in the etiology of anemia cannot be ignored. However, regardless of cause, nutritional anemia must be reckoned with. Figure 8 indicates the relationship between nutritional anemia in preschool children and village type. Using the WHO cut-off for iron anemia of eleven gm/dl, the mean values of both categories of transitional village fell below the cut-off while traditional and modern villages were above the cut-off. There is a statistically significant difference between village types with p=0.043 for between group differences. \midinsert \vskip4.5in {\bf Figure 8.} Nutritional Anemia in Preschool Children by Village Type. WHO cut-off Fe-deficiency is at a value of 11 (measuring mean HB (gm/dl)). (145 villages). Four bars are displayed in this chart: one for traditional, one for early transitional, one for late transitional, and one for modern villages. The length of the bar measures the mean Hb (gm/dl). The bars for the early and late transitional villages fall short of the WHO cut-off line at 11. The bars for the traditional and modern village go beyond the WHO cut-off line. The source is 1991 Eastern Islands Prevalence Survey. \endinsert \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf Intestinal worms} Intestinal parasites (helminthic infection) can significantly contribute to malnutrition in adults and even more in children. Reduction in such infections usually requires a multifaceted approach to public health including family education, improved waste disposal, safe water, and proper food preparation. Figure 9 presents evidence on the prevalence of helminthic infection by village type for 169 villages in the Eastern Islands. Again, both early and late transitional villages show a higher mean village worm rate although not at statistically significant levels. \midinsert \vskip4.5in {\bf Figure 9.} Prevalence of Helminthic Infection by Village Type (169 villages). Four bars are displayed in this chart: one for traditional, one for early transitional, one for late transitional, and one for modern villages. The length of the bar measures the mean village rate of worm infestation. The bar for traditional villages has length 13.91; that for early transitional has length 15.29; that for late transitional has length 16.8; and, that for modern has length 5.98. The source is 1991 Eastern Islands Prevalence Survey. \endinsert Not all measured variables showed at-riskness in transitional villages. Prevalence of diarrhea, chicken pox, and measles did not show measurably higher rates during the study period. Difference in seasonality of high-risk periods depending on topography and the episodic character of some of these diseases may be factors which preclude indication of heightened risks by village type. \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf TESTING FOR RISK OVERLAP WITHIN THE HEALTH SECTOR} While this dataset provides evidence of the vulnerability of transitional villages to micronutrient deficiencies, and supports the targeting of micronutrient control programs to these villages, it is also pertinent to investigate the general overlap" in micronutrient deficiency prevalences in all village types. This analysis addresses the issue of integrating VAD control activities with IDD and IDA control programs. As governments examine the possible benefits gained from the integration of VAD control activities with IDD and IDA programs, and a strategies that target high risk populations appear most cost-effective, the examination of the extent to which villages at high risk for one micronutrient deficiency is at the same time at high risk for another micronutrient deficiency becomes a logical research question with direct programmatic implications. The data gathered from the Eastern Islands Prevalence Survey, provides a unique opportunity to investigate this measurement of the degree of covariance, or overlap," between these deficiencies. \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf Methods} In order to address this issue, two types of analyses were carried out. The first set of analyses focused on measuring the correlations between the prevalence of the three micronutrients. Statistical procedures included formulation of a correlogram and multidimensional scaling. (These methodologies are not included in this paper but are available through the primary author in a separate paper presently in draft form.) The second type of analysis was aimed at presenting the relative overlap" in high prevalences for all three micronutrient deficiencies, and Venn diagrams were constructed to allow for visualization of this phenomenon. \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf Determination of Overlap in Risk} Figure 10 is a Venn diagram which shows the overlap in risk for micronutrient malnutrition. It represents aggregated data from 138 villages. VAD, TGR, and IDA are shown to have a substantial overlap among the villages. This overlap, like the broader overlap among different sectors in the community, has important implications for intervention strategies which will be discussed further in the concluding section of the paper. \midinsert \vskip5.5in {\bf Figure 10.} Three-circle Venn diagram: two circles on top, one below, intersecting to form eight disjoint regions. The circle on the upper left represents VAD; the one on the upper right, TGR; and, the one on the bottom, IDA. Overlap in Risk for Micronutrient Malnutrition in the Eastern Islands of Indonesia (number of villages is 145). Breakdown of the partition by Venn region: 1. VAD and TGR and IDA: 30; 2. VAD and TGR and not-IDA: 2; 3. VAD and IDA and not-TGR: 39; 4. VAD and not-IDA and not-TGR: 7; 5. IDA and TGR and not-VAD: 26; 6. IDA and not-TGR and not-VAD: 30; 7. TGR and not-VAD and not-IDA: 4; 8. not-VAD and not-TGR and not-IDA: 7. \endinsert Figure 11 presents the overlap in risks for the same micronutrient deficiencies in transitional villages and Figure 12 shows these overlaps for traditional and modern villages. It is interesting that the pattern of overlap does not change between transitional and non-transitional villages. \midinsert \vskip5.5in {\bf Figure 11.} Three-circle Venn diagram: two circles on top, one below, intersecting to form eight disjoint regions. The circle on the upper left represents VAD; the one on the upper right, TGR; and, the one on the bottom, IDA. Overlap in Risk for Micronutrient Malnutrition in the Eastern Islands of Indonesia in Transitional villages. Breakdown of the partition by Venn region: 1. VAD and TGR and IDA: 26; 2. VAD and TGR and not-IDA: 1; 3. VAD and IDA and not-TGR: 25; 4. VAD and not-IDA and not-TGR: 5; 5. IDA and TGR and not-VAD: 20; 6. IDA and not-TGR and not-VAD: 21; 7. TGR and not-VAD and not-IDA: 3; 8. not-VAD and not-TGR and not-IDA: 3. \endinsert \midinsert \vskip5.5in {\bf Figure 12.} Three-circle Venn diagram: two circles on top, one below, intersecting to form eight disjoint regions. The circle on the upper left represents VAD; the one on the upper right, TGR; and, the one on the bottom, IDA. Overlap in Risk for Micronutrient Malnutrition in the Eastern Islands of Indonesia in Non-transitional villages. Breakdown of the partition by Venn region: 1. VAD and TGR and IDA: 4; 2. VAD and TGR and not-IDA: 1; 3. VAD and IDA and not-TGR: 14; 4. VAD and not-IDA and not-TGR: 2; 5. IDA and TGR and not-VAD: 5; 6. IDA and not-TGR and not-VAD: 9; 7. TGR and not-VAD and not-IDA: 1; 8. not-VAD and not-TGR and not-IDA: 4. \endinsert \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY IMPLICATIONS} \vskip.2cm \noindent{\bf Summary of Evidence for Elevated Risk in Transitional Villages} The forgoing analysis presents a rather compelling picture of heightened health risk in villages experiencing transition from traditional self-sufficient living patterns to more developed market-oriented economies. Almost every health indicator examined in this study shows that households in villages experiencing transitions were worse off --- whether the measure be child malnutrition (PEM), anemia (IDA), vitamin A deficiency (VAD), iodine deficiency (IDD), or helminthic infection. Further, this heightened risk was evident in spite of apparent improvements" in community infrastructure, both physical and organizational. Theoretical developments and the first stages of empirical work elsewhere suggest that this heightened risk during transition may be attributable to the vulnerability created by rapid rates of change in each of many sectors of the community especially when they occur simultaneously. Old and often useful patterns of interaction among sectors are damaged or destroyed and new adaptive patterns have not yet developed. Changes within one sector result, often harmfully, in changes in another. And, perhaps most important, these changes occur so rapidly that societal adaptive capacity is limited during the transition. Societal vulnerability due to rapid rates of change deserves recognition and, if possible, remediation. Risks are brought about by changes in employment patterns, education levels, more abundant supplies of water, altered waste disposal systems, increased transportation alternatives (and costs), disruption in food production, storage, preparation and consumption, and changes in population density. These overlapping risks call for a community-wide strategy of remediation which explicitly recognizes their interaction. The strategy need not be complex; only conceived broadly enough to explicitly embrace interaction among sectors. \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf Policy implications} A possible policy implication from the findings of this study suggests planning for special emphasis and corresponding resources devoted to health care activities during periods of rapid social or economic change. Especially when government-sponsored development efforts are being implemented, it may be helpful to schedule higher levels of service delivery in order to overcome the anticipated higher risk for children during transition periods. While focusing upon villages in transition is but one type of targeting, there is a qualitative difference between this and other targeting strategies discussed earlier. In this instance, targeting can be based upon {\bf anticipating} the risk rather than reflecting current or historical risk estimates. Because government is both planner and resource allocator for its development programs, difficulties experienced during movement through a transition period can be dampened by allocating special activities to the region receiving development assistance. At the very least, government can monitor local conditions more closely and be prepared to act quickly if problems should arise. Because this is the first study showing these elevated risks for transition villages and because the results from this analysis should not be extended to other settings without further confirmation, it also might be useful to explore more fully the nature of societal vulnerability in transition communities. A pilot project incorporating a research design which focuses upon this question could be far more robust than was possible in this study and consequently capable of stronger conclusions regarding the strategy's usefulness. If such a pilot study is implemented, it would be useful to install a simple monitoring component capable of measuring the gains from this approach. \vskip.5cm \noindent{\bf Implementing a targeting strategy} Implementing a targeting strategy has many practical elements. Ease of gathering data necessary for targeting is crucial. As discussed earlier, data requirements which are too costly or time consuming usually are not useful. One strength of the strategy suggested in this paper is the use of simple village-level variables which are easy to gather but which do a good job of identifying average household at-riskness. But there is another practical dimension which is less easy to quantify. That is, how to blend analytic evidence of at-riskness in a particular sector of a community with local judgment of those closest to the setting. Experience elsewhere indicates that a targeting strategy based only upon analytic considerations is less than optimal. Furthermore, risks organized by type of problem or sector in the community can be less useful than combining risks into one composite. Often it is most practical to allocate resources to the entire community rather than to each component or sector. While it is helpful to keep each risk category separate for analysis purposes, there is also benefit in being able to aggregate risk across sectors. Assessing and acting on at-riskness based on village transitional status permits such a strategy. \vfill\eject \centerline{\bf 4. SAMPLE OF HOW TO DOWNLOAD THE ELECTRONIC FILE} \centerline{\bf BACK ISSUES OF {\sl SOLSTICE\/} ON A GOPHER} \noindent {\sl Solstice\/} is available on a GOPHER from the Department of Mathematics at Arizona State University: PI.LA.ASU.EDU port 70 \centerline{\bf BACK ISSUES OF {\sl SOLSTICE\/} AVAILABLE ON FTP} \noindent This section shows the exact set of commands that work to download {\sl Solstice\/} on The University of Michigan's Xerox 9700. Because different universities will have different installations of {\TeX}, this is only a rough guideline which {\sl might\/} be of use to the reader. (BACK ISSUES AVAILABLE using anonymous ftp to open um.cc.umich.edu, account GCFS; type cd GCFS after entering system; then type ls to get a directory; then type get solstice.190 (for example) and download it or read it according to local constraints.) Back issues will be available on this account; this account is ONLY for back issues; to write Solstice, send e-mail to Solstice@UMICHUM.bitnet or to Solstice@um.cc.umich.edu . Issues from this one forward are available on FTP on account IEVG (substitute IEVG for GCFS above). First step is to concatenate the files you received via bitnet/internet. Simply piece them together in your computer, one after another, in the order in which they are numbered, starting with the number, 1." The files you have received are ASCII files; the concatenated file is used to form the .tex file from which the .dvi file (device independent) file is formed. The words percent-sign" and backslash" are written out in the example below; the user should type them symbolically. \noindent ASSUME YOU HAVE SIGNED ON AND ARE AT THE SYSTEM PROMPT, \#. \smallskip \# create -t.tex \# percent-sign t from pc c:backslash words backslash solstice.tex to mts -t.tex char notab (this command sends my file, solstice.tex, which I did as a WordStar (subdirectory, words") ASCII file to the mainframe) \# run *tex par=-t.tex (there may be some underfull (or certain over) boxes that generally cause no problem; there should be no other error" messages in the typesetting--the files you receive were already tested.) \# run *dvixer par=-t.dvi \# control *print* onesided \# run *pagepr scards=-t.xer, par=paper=plain \vfill\eject \centerline{\bf 5. SOLSTICE--INDEX, VOLUMES I, II, III, IV.1} \smallskip \noindent{\bf Volume IV, Number 1, Summer, 1993} \smallskip \noindent {\bf 1.} Welcome to New Readers. \smallskip \noindent {\bf 2.} Press clippings, summary. \smallskip \noindent {\bf 3.} Goings on about Ann Arbor--ESRI and IMaGe Gift \smallskip \noindent {\bf 4.} Articles \smallskip Electronic Journals: Observations Based on Actual Trials, 1987-Present, by Sandra L. Arlinghaus and Richard H. Zander. Headings: Abstract; Content issues; Production issues; Archival issues; References. \smallskip Wilderness As Place, by John D. Nystuen. Headings: Visual paradoxes; Wilderness defined; Conflict or synthesis; Wilderness as place; Suggested readings; Sources; Visual illusion authors \smallskip The Earth Isn't Flant. And It Isn't Round Either: Some Significant and Little Known Effects of the Earth's Ellipsoidal Shape, by Frank E. Barmore. reprinted from the {\sl Wisconsin Geographer\/}. Headings: Abstract; Introduction; The Qibla problem; The geographic center; The center of population; Appendix; References. \smallskip Microcell Hex-nets? by Sandra L. Arlinghaus Headings: Introduction; Lattices; Microcell hex-nets; References. \smallskip Sum Graphs and Geographic Information, by Sandra L. Arlinghaus, William C. Arlinghaus, Frank Harary. Headings: Abstract; Sum graphs; Sum graph unification: construction; Cartographic application of sum graph unification; Sum graph unification: theory; Logarithmic sum graphs; Reversed sum graphs; Augmented reversed logarithmic sum graphs; Cartographic application of ARL sum graphs; Summary \smallskip \noindent{\bf 5.} Downloading of {\sl Solstice\/}. \smallskip \noindent{\bf 6.} Index. \smallskip \noindent{\bf 7.} Other publications of IMaGe. %---------------------------------------------------------------- %---------------------------------------------------------------- \noindent {\bf Volume III, Number 2, Winter, 1992} \smallskip \noindent {\bf 1.} A Word of Welcome from A to U. \smallskip \noindent {\bf 2.} Press clippings--summary. \smallskip \noindent {\bf 3.} Reprints: \smallskip \noindent {\bf A.} What Are Mathematical Models and What Should They Be? by Frank Harary, reprinted from {\sl Biometrie - Praximetrie\/}. \smallskip \noindent {\sl 1. What Are They? 2. Two Worlds: Abstract and Empirical 3. Two Worlds: Two Levels 4. Two Levels: Derviation and Selection 5. Research Schema 6. Sketches of Discovery 7. What Should They Be? \/} \smallskip \noindent {\bf B.} Where Are We? Comments on the Concept of Center of Population, by Frank E. Barmore, reprinted from {\sl The Wisconsin Geographer\/}. \smallskip \noindent {\sl 1. Introduction 2. Preliminary Remarks 3. Census Bureau Center of Population Formul{\ae} 4. Census Bureau Center of Population Description 5. Agreement Between Description and Formul{\ae} 6. Proposed Definition of the Center of Population 7. Summary 8. Appendix A 9. Appendix B 10. References \/} \smallskip \noindent {\bf 4.} Article: \smallskip The Pelt of the Earth: An Essay on Reactive Diffusion, by Sandra L. Arlinghaus and John D. Nystuen. \smallskip \noindent {\sl 1. Pattern Formation: Global Views 2. Pattern Formation: Local Views 3. References Cited 4. Literature of Apparent Related Interest. \/} \smallskip \noindent {\bf 5.} Feature Meet new{\sl Solstice\/} Board Member William D. Drake; comments on course in Transition Theory and listing of student-produced monograph. \smallskip \noindent {\bf 6.} Downloading of Solstice. \smallskip \noindent {\bf 7.} Index to Solstice. \smallskip \noindent {\bf 8.} Other Publications of IMaGe. \smallskip %---------------------------------------------------------------- %---------------------------------------------------------------- \noindent {\bf Volume III, Number 1, Summer, 1992} \smallskip \noindent{\bf 1. ARTICLES.} \smallskip\noindent {\bf Harry L. Stern}. \smallskip\noindent {\bf Computing Areas of Regions With Discretely Defined Boundaries}. \smallskip\noindent 1. Introduction 2. General Formulation 3. The Plane 4. The Sphere 5. Numerical Example and Remarks. Appendix--Fortran Program. \smallskip \noindent{\bf 2. NOTE } \smallskip\noindent {\bf Sandra L. Arlinghaus, John D. Nystuen, Michael J. Woldenberg}. \smallskip\noindent {\bf The Quadratic World of Kinematic Waves} \smallskip \noindent{\bf 3. SOFTWARE REVIEW} \smallskip RangeMapper$^{\hbox{TM}}$--- version 1.4. Created by {\bf Kenelm W. Philip}, Tundra Vole Software, Fairbanks, Alaska. Program and Manual by {\bf Kenelm W. Philip}. \smallskip Reviewed by {\bf Yung-Jaan Lee}, University of Michigan. \smallskip \noindent{\bf 4. PRESS CLIPPINGS} \smallskip \noindent{\bf 5. INDEX to Volumes I (1990) and II (1991) of {\sl Solstice}.} \smallskip %---------------------------------------------------------------- %---------------------------------------------------------------- \noindent {\bf Volume II, Number 2, Winter, 1991} \smallskip \noindent 1. REPRINT Saunders Mac Lane, Proof, Truth, and Confusion." Given as the Nora and Edward Ryerson Lecture at The University of Chicago in 1982. Republished with permission of The University of Chicago and of the author. I. The Fit of Ideas. II. Truth and Proof. III. Ideas and Theorems. IV. Sets and Functions. V. Confusion via Surveys. VI. Cost-benefit and Regression. VII. Projection, Extrapolation, and Risk. VIII. Fuzzy Sets and Fuzzy Thoughts. IX. Compromise is Confusing. \noindent 2. ARTICLE Robert F. Austin. Digital Maps and Data Bases: Aesthetics versus Accuracy." I. Introduction. II. Basic Issues. III. Map Production. IV. Digital Maps. V. Computerized Data Bases. VI. User Community. \noindent 3. FEATURES Press clipping; Word Search Puzzle; Software Briefs. \smallskip %---------------------------------------------------------------- %---------------------------------------------------------------- \noindent {\bf Volume II, Number 1, Summer, 1991} \smallskip \noindent 1. ARTICLE Sandra L. Arlinghaus, David Barr, John D. Nystuen. {\sl The Spatial Shadow: Light and Dark --- Whole and Part\/} This account of some of the projects of sculptor David Barr attempts to place them in a formal, systematic, spatial setting based on the postulates of the science of space of William Kingdon Clifford (reprinted in {\sl Solstice\/}, Vol. I, No. 1.). \smallskip \noindent 2. FEATURES \item{i} Construction Zone --- The logistic curve. \item{ii.} Educational feature --- Lectures on Spatial Theory" \smallskip %---------------------------------------------------------------- %---------------------------------------------------------------- \noindent{\bf Volume I, Number 2, Winter, 1990} \smallskip \noindent 1. REPRINT John D. Nystuen (1974), {\sl A City of Strangers: Spatial Aspects of Alienation in the Detroit Metropolitan Region\/}. This paper examines the urban shift from people space" to machine space" (see R. Horvath, {\sl Geographical Review\/}, April, 1974) in the Detroit metropolitan region of 1974. As with Clifford's {\sl Postulates\/}, reprinted in the last issue of {\sl Solstice\/}, note the timely quality of many of the observations. \noindent 2. ARTICLES Sandra Lach Arlinghaus, {\sl Scale and Dimension: Their Logical Harmony\/}. Linkage between scale and dimension is made using the Fallacy of Division and the Fallacy of Composition in a fractal setting. \smallskip Sandra Lach Arlinghaus, {\sl Parallels between Parallels\/}. The earth's sun introduces a symmetry in the perception of its trajectory in the sky that naturally partitions the earth's surface into zones of affine and hyperbolic geometry. The affine zones, with single geometric parallels, are located north and south of the geographic parallels. The hyperbolic zone, with multiple geometric parallels, is located between the geographic tropical parallels. Evidence of this geometric partition is suggested in the geographic environment --- in the design of houses and of gameboards. \smallskip Sandra L. Arlinghaus, William C. Arlinghaus, and John D. Nystuen. {\sl The Hedetniemi Matrix Sum: A Real-world Application\/}. In a recent paper, we presented an algorithm for finding the shortest distance between any two nodes in a network of$n$nodes when given only distances between adjacent nodes [Arlinghaus, Arlinghaus, Nystuen, {\sl Geographical Analysis\/}, 1990]. In that previous research, we applied the algorithm to the generalized road network graph surrounding San Francisco Bay. Here, we examine consequent changes in matrix entires when the underlying adjacency pattern of the road network was altered by the 1989 earthquake that closed the San Francisco --- Oakland Bay Bridge. \smallskip Sandra Lach Arlinghaus, {\sl Fractal Geometry of Infinite Pixel Sequences: Su\-per\--def\-in\-i\-tion" Resolution\/}? Comparison of space-filling qualities of square and hexagonal pixels. \smallskip \noindent 3. FEATURES \item{i.} Construction Zone --- Feigenbaum's number; a triangular coordinatization of the Euclidean plane. \item{ii.} A three-axis coordinatization of the plane. \smallskip %---------------------------------------------------------------- %---------------------------------------------------------------- \noindent{\bf Volume I, Number 1, Summer, 1990} \noindent 1. REPRINT William Kingdon Clifford, {\sl Postulates of the Science of Space\/} This reprint of a portion of Clifford's lectures to the Royal Institution in the 1870's suggests many geographic topics of concern in the last half of the twentieth century. Look for connections to boundary issues, to scale problems, to self- similarity and fractals, and to non-Euclidean geometries (from those based on denial of Euclid's parallel postulate to those based on a sort of mechanical polishing"). What else did, or might, this classic essay foreshadow? \noindent 2. ARTICLES. Sandra L. Arlinghaus, {\sl Beyond the Fractal.} An original article. The fractal notion of self-similarity is useful for characterizing change in scale; the reason fractals are effective in the geometry of central place theory is because that geometry is hierarchical in nature. Thus, a natural place to look for other connections of this sort is to other geographical concepts that are also hierarchical. Within this fractal context, this article examines the case of spatial diffusion. When the idea of diffusion is extended to see adopters" of an innovation as attractors" of new adopters, a Julia set is introduced as a possible axis against which to measure one class of geographic phenomena. Beyond the fractal context, fractal concepts, such as compression" and space-filling" are considered in a broader graph-theoretic setting. \smallskip William C. Arlinghaus, {\sl Groups, Graphs, and God} \smallskip \noindent 3. FEATURES \smallskip \item{i.} Theorem Museum --- Desargues's Two Triangle Theorem from projective geometry. \item{ii.} Construction Zone --- a centrally symmetric hexagon is derived from an arbitrary convex hexagon. \item{iii.} Reference Corner --- Point set theory and topology. \item{iv.} Educational Feature --- Crossword puzzle on spices. \item{v.} Solution to crossword puzzle. \smallskip \noindent 4. SAMPLE OF HOW TO DOWNLOAD THE ELECTRONIC FILE \smallskip \vfill\eject \centerline{\bf 6. OTHER PUBLICATIONS OF IMaGe} \centerline{\bf MONOGRAPH SERIES} \centerline{Scholarly Monographs--Original Material, refereed} Prices exclusive of shipping and handling; payable in U.S. funds on a U.S. bank, only. All monographs are \$15.95, except \#12 which is \$39.95. Monographs are printed by Digicopy. 1. Sandra L. Arlinghaus and John D. Nystuen. Mathematical Geography and Global Art: the Mathematics of David Barr's Four Corners Project,'' 1986. This monograph contains Nystuen's calculations, actually used by Barr to position his abstract tetrahedral sculpture within the earth. Placement of the sculpture vertices in Easter Island, South Africa, Greenland, and Indonesia was chronicled in film by The Archives of American Art for The Smithsonian Institution. In addition to the archival material, this monograph also contains Arlinghaus's solutions to broader theoretical questions --- was Barr's choice of a tetrahedron unique within his initial constraints, and, within the set of Platonic solids? 2. Sandra L. Arlinghaus. Down the Mail Tubes: the Pressured Postal Era, 1853-1984, 1986. The history of the pneumatic post, in Europe and in the United States, is examined for the lessons it might offer to the technological scenes of the late twentieth century. As Sylvia L. Thrupp, Alice Freeman Palmer Professor Emeritus of History, The University of Michigan, commented in her review of this work Such brief comment does far less than justice to the intelligence and the stimulating quality of the author's writing, or to the breadth of her reading. The detail of her accounts of the interest of American private enterprise, in New York and other large cities on this continent, in pushing for construction of large tubes in systems to be leased to the government, brings out contrast between American and European views of how the new technology should be managed. This and many other sections of the monograph will set readers on new tracks of thought.'' 3. Sandra L. Arlinghaus. Essays on Mathematical Geography, 1986. A collection of essays intended to show the range of power in applying pure mathematics to human systems. There are two types of essay: those which employ traditional mathematical proof, and those which do not. As mathematical proof may itself be regarded as art, the former style of essay might represent traditional'' art, and the latter, surrealist'' art. Essay titles are: The well-tempered map projection,'' Antipodal graphs,'' Analogue clocks,'' Steiner transformations,'' Concavity and urban settlement patterns,'' Measuring the vertical city,'' Fad and permanence in human systems,'' Topological exploration in geography,'' A space for thought,'' and Chaos in human systems--the Heine-Borel Theorem.'' 4. Robert F. Austin, A Historical Gazetteer of Southeast Asia, 1986. Dr. Austin's Gazetteer draws geographic coordinates of Southeast Asian place-names together with references to these place-names as they have appeared in historical and literary documents. This book is of obvious use to historians and to historical geographers specializing in Southeast Asia. At a deeper level, it might serve as a valuable source in establishing place-name linkages which have remained previously unnoticed, in documents describing trade or other communications connections, because of variation in place-name nomenclature. 5. Sandra L. Arlinghaus, Essays on Mathematical Geography--II, 1987. Written in the same format as IMaGe Monograph \#3, that seeks to use pure'' mathematics in real-world settings, this volume contains the following material: Frontispiece -- the Atlantic Drainage Tree,'' Getting a Handel on Water-Graphs,'' Terror in Transit: A Graph Theoretic Approach to the Passive Defense of Urban Networks,'' Terrae Antipodum,'' Urban Inversion,'' Fractals: Constructions, Speculations, and Concepts,'' Solar Woks,'' A Pneumatic Postal Plan: The Chambered Interchange and ZIPPR Code,'' Endpiece.'' 6. Pierre Hanjoul, Hubert Beguin, and Jean-Claude Thill, Theoretical Market Areas Under Euclidean Distance, 1988. (English language text; Abstracts written in French and in English.) Though already initiated by Rau in 1841, the economic theory of the shape of two-dimensional market areas has long remained concerned with a representation of transportation costs as linear in distance. In the general gravity model, to which the theory also applies, this corresponds to a decreasing exponential function of distance deterrence. Other transportation cost and distance deterrence functions also appear in the literature, however. They have not always been considered from the viewpoint of the shape of the market areas they generate, and their disparity asks the question whether other types of functions would not be worth being investigated. There is thus a need for a general theory of market areas: the present work aims at filling this gap, in the case of a duopoly competing inside the Euclidean plane endowed with Euclidean distance. (Bien qu'\'ebauch\'ee par Rau d\es 1841, la th\'eorie \'economique de la forme des aires de march\'e planaires s'est longtemps content\'ee de l'hypoth\ese de co\^uts de transport proportionnels \a la distance. Dans le mod\ele gravitaire g\'en\'eralis\'e, auquel on peut \'etendre cette th\'eorie, ceci correspond au choix d'une exponentielle d\'ecroissante comme fonction de dissuasion de la distance. D'autres fonctions de co\^ut de transport ou de dissuasion de la distance apparaissent cependant dans la litt\'erature. La forme des aires de march\'e qu'elles engendrent n'a pas toujours \'et\'e \'etudi\'ee ; par ailleurs, leur vari\'et\'e am\ene \a se demander si d'autres fonctions encore ne m\'eriteraient pas d'\^etre examin\'ees. Il para\^it donc utile de disposer d'une th\'eorie g\'en\'erale des aires de march\'e : ce \a quoi s'attache ce travail en cas de duopole, dans le cadre du plan euclidien muni d'une distance euclidienne.) 7. Keith J. Tinkler, Editor, Nystuen---Dacey Nodal Analysis, 1988. Professor Tinkler's volume displays the use of this graph theoretical tool in geography, from the original Nystuen --- Dacey article, to a bibliography of uses, to original uses by Tinkler. Some reprinted material is included, but by far the larger part is of previously unpublished material. (Unless otherwise noted, all items listed below are previously unpublished.) Contents:  Foreward' " by Nystuen, 1988; Preface" by Tinkler, 1988; Statistics for Nystuen --- Dacey Nodal Analysis," by Tinkler, 1979; Review of Nodal Analysis literature by Tinkler (pre--1979, reprinted with permission; post---1979, new as of 1988); FORTRAN program listing for Nodal Analysis by Tinkler; A graph theory interpretation of nodal regions'' by John D. Nystuen and Michael F. Dacey, reprinted with permission, 1961; Nystuen---Dacey data concerning telephone flows in Washington and Missouri, 1958, 1959 with comment by Nystuen, 1988; The expected distribution of nodality in random (p, q) graphs and multigraphs,'' by Tinkler, 1976. 8. James W. Fonseca, The Urban Rank--size Hierarchy: A Mathematical Interpretation, 1989. The urban rank--size hierarchy can be characterized as an equiangular spiral of the form$r=ae^{\theta \, \hbox{cot}\alpha}$. An equiangular spiral can also be constructed from a Fibonacci sequence. The urban rank--size hierarchy is thus shown to mirror the properties derived from Fibonacci characteristics such as rank--additive properties. A new method of structuring the urban rank--size hierarchy is explored which essentially parallels that of the traditional rank--size hierarchy below rank 11. Above rank 11 this method may help explain the frequently noted concavity of the rank--size distribution at the upper levels. The research suggests that the simple rank--size rule with the exponent equal to 1 is not merely a special case, but rather a theoretically justified norm against which deviant cases may be measured. The spiral distribution model allows conceptualization of a new view of the urban rank--size hierarchy in which the three largest cities share functions in a Fibonacci hierarchy. 9. Sandra L. Arlinghaus, An Atlas of Steiner Networks, 1989. A Steiner network is a tree of minimum total length joining a prescribed, finite, number of locations; often new locations are introduced into the prescribed set to determine the minimum tree. This Atlas explains the mathematical detail behind the Steiner construction for prescribed sets of$n$locations and displays the steps, visually, in a series of Figures. The proof of the Steiner construction is by mathematical induction, and enough steps in the early part of the induction are displayed completely that the reader who is well--trained in Euclidean geometry, and familiar with concepts from graph theory and elementary number theory, should be able to replicate the constructions for full as well as for degenerate Steiner trees. 10. Daniel A. Griffith, Simulating$K=3$Christaller Central Place Structures: An Algorithm Using A Constant Elasticity of Substitution Consumption Function, 1989. An algorithm is presented that uses BASICA or GWBASIC on IBM compatible machines. This algorithm simulates Christaller$K=3$central place structures, for a four--level hierarchy. It is based upon earlier published work by the author. A description of the spatial theory, mathematics, and sample output runs appears in the monograph. A digital version is available from the author, free of charge, upon request; this request must be accompanied by a 5.25--inch formatted diskette. This algorithm has been developed for use in Social Science classroom laboratory situations, and is designed to (a) cultivate a deeper understanding of central place theory, (b) allow parameters of a central place system to be altered and then graphic and tabular results attributable to these changes viewed, without experiencing the tedium of massive calculations, and (c) help promote a better comprehension of the complex role distance plays in the space--economy. The algorithm also should facilitate intensive numerical research on central place structures; it is expected that even the sample simulation results will reveal interesting insights into abstract central place theory. The background spatial theory concerns demand and competition in the space--economy; both linear and non--linear spatial demand functions are discussed. The mathematics is concerned with (a) integration of non--linear spatial demand cones on a continuous demand surface, using a constant elasticity of substitution consumption function, (b) solving for roots of polynomials, (c) numerical approximations to integration and root extraction, and (d) multinomial discriminant function classification of commodities into central place hierarchy levels. Sample output is presented for contrived data sets, constructed from artificial and empirical information, with the wide range of all possible central place structures being generated. These examples should facilitate implementation testing. Students are able to vary single or multiple parameters of the problem, permitting a study of how certain changes manifest themselves within the context of a theoretical central place structure. Hierarchical classification criteria may be changed, demand elasticities may or may not vary and can take on a wide range of non--negative values, the uniform transport cost may be set at any positive level, assorted fixed costs and variable costs may be introduced, again within a rich range of non--negative possibilities, and the number of commodities can be altered. Directions for algorithm execution are summarized. An ASCII version of the algorithm, written directly from GWBASIC, is included in an appendix; hence, it is free of typing errors. 11. Sandra L. Arlinghaus and John D. Nystuen, Environmental Effects on Bus Durability, 1990. This monograph draws on the authors' previous publications on Climatic" and Terrain" effects on bus durability. Material on these two topics is selected, and reprinted, from three published papers that appeared in the {\sl Transportation Research Record\/} and in the {\sl Geographical Review\/}. New material concerning congestion" effects is examined at the national level, to determine dense," intermediate," and sparse" classes of congestion, and at the local level of congestion in Ann Arbor (as suggestive of how one might use local data). This material is drawn together in a single volume, along with a summary of the consequences of all three effects simultaneously, in order to suggest direction for more highly automated studies that should follow naturally with the release of the 1990 U. S. Census data. 12. Daniel A. Griffith, Editor. Spatial Statistics: Past, Present, and Future, 1990. Proceedings of a Symposium of the same name held at Syracuse University in Summer, 1989. Content includes a Preface by Griffith and the following papers: Brian Ripley, Gibbsian interaction models"; J. Keith Ord, Statistical methods for point pattern data"; Luc Anselin, What is special about spatial data"; Robert P. Haining, Models in human geography: problems in specifying, estimating, and validating models for spatial data"; R. J. Martin, The role of spatial statistics in geographic modelling"; Daniel Wartenberg, Exploratory spatial analyses: outliers, leverage points, and influence functions"; J. H. P. Paelinck, Some new estimators in spatial econometrics"; Daniel A. Griffith, A numerical simplification for estimating parameters of spatial autoregressive models"; Kanti V. Mardia, Maximum likelihood estimation for spatial models"; Ashish Sen, Distribution of spatial correlation statistics"; Sylvia Richardson, Some remarks on the testing of association between spatial processes"; Graham J. G. Upton, Information from regional data"; Patrick Doreian, Network autocorrelation models: problems and prospects." Each chapter is preceded by an Editor's Preface" and followed by a Discussion and, in some cases, by an author's Rejoinder to the Discussion. 13. Sandra L. Arlinghaus, Editor. Solstice --- I, 1990. 14. Sandra L. Arlinghaus, Essays on Mathematical Geography --- III, 1991. A continuation of the series. Essays in this volume are: Table for central place fractals; Tiling according to the Administrative" Principle; Moir\'e maps; Triangle partitioning; An enumeration of candidate Steiner networks; A topological generation gap; Synthetic centers of gravity: A conjecture. 15. Sandra L. Arlinghaus, Editor, Solstice --- II, 1991. 16. Sandra L. Arlinghaus, Editor, Solstice --- III, 1992. 17. Sandra L. Arlinghaus, Editor, Solstice --- IV, 1993. %---------------------------------------------------------------- %---------------------------------------------------------------- DISCUSSION PAPERS--ORIGINAL Editor, Daniel A. Griffith Professor of Geography Syracuse University 1. Spatial Regression Analysis on the PC: Spatial Statistics Using Minitab. 1989. Cost: \$12.95, hardcopy.
%----------------------------------------------------------------
%----------------------------------------------------------------
DISCUSSION PAPERS--REPRINTS
Editor of MICMG Series, John D. Nystuen
Professor of Geography and Urban Planning
The University of Michigan

1.  Reprint of the Papers of the Michigan InterUniversity
Community of Mathematical Geographers.
Editor, John D. Nystuen.
Cost:  \$39.95, hardcopy. Contents--original editor: John D. Nystuen. 1. Arthur Getis, Temporal land use pattern analysis with the use of nearest neighbor and quadrat methods." July, 1963 2. Marc Anderson, A working bibliography of mathematical geography." September, 1963. 3. William Bunge, Patterns of location." February, 1964. 4. Michael F. Dacey, Imperfections in the uniform plane." June, 1964. 5. Robert S. Yuill, A simulation study of barrier effects in spatial diffusion problems." April, 1965. 6. William Warntz, A note on surfaces and paths and applications to geographical problems." May, 1965. 7. Stig Nordbeck, The law of allometric growth." June, 1965. 8. Waldo R. Tobler, Numerical map generalization;" and Waldo R. Tobler, Notes on the analysis of geographical distributions." January, 1966. 9. Peter R. Gould, On mental maps." September, 1966. 10. John D. Nystuen, Effects of boundary shape and the concept of local convexity;" Julian Perkal, On the length of empirical curves;" and Julian Perkal, An attempt at objective generalization." December, 1966. 11. E. Casetti and R. K. Semple, A method for the stepwise separation of spatial trends." April, 1968. 12. W. Bunge, R. Guyot, A. Karlin, R. Martin, W. Pattison, W. Tobler, S. Toulmin, and W. Warntz, The philosophy of maps." June, 1968. %---------------------------------------------------------------- %---------------------------------------------------------------- Reprints of out-of-print textbooks. Printer and obtainer of copyright permission: Digicopy Corp. Inquire for cost of reproduction---include class size 1. Allen K. Philbrick. This Human World. 2. John F. Kolars and John D. Nystuen. Human Geography. \vfill\eject \centerline{\bf 7. SELECTED RECENT PUBLICATIONS OF INTEREST} \centerline{\bf INVOLVING {\sl Solstice} BOARD MEMBERS,} \centerline{\bf AND SOME GOINGS ON ABOUT ANN ARBOR} %---------------------------------------------------------------- %---------------------------------------------------------------- SELECTED RECENT PUBLICATIONS INVOLVING {\sl Solstice\/} BOARD MEMBERS 1. {\sl Practical Handbook of Curve Fitting\/}, edited by Sandra L. Arlinghaus with Associate Editors William C. Arlinghaus, William D. Drake, and John D. Nystuen. Published by CRC Press, forthcoming, April, 1994. Principal author: S. L. Arlinghaus. Contents: Introduction; Population Data Analysis; Epidemiology Data Analysis; Agriculture Data Analysis; Biodiversity Data Analysis; Soils and Forestry Data Analysis; Education Data Analysis; Transportation and Communication Data Analysis; Environmental Toxicity Data Analysis; Urbanization Data Analysis; World Trade Data Analysis; Index of Figure Captions and Table Titles. 2. {\sl Practical Handbook of Digital Mapping\/}, edited by Sandra L. Arlinghaus, Specialist Associate Editor Robert F. Austin, Associate Editors William C. Arlinghaus, William D. Drake, and John D. Nystuen. Published by CRC Press, forthcoming, February, 1994. Principal authors of text: R. F. Austin and S. L. Arlinghaus. Principal author of Case Study: John D. Nystuen 3. {\sl Fractals in Geography\/}, Edited by Nina Siu-Ngan Lam and Lee De Cola. Prentice-Hall, Englewood Cliffs, NJ, 1993. Authors: Nina Siu-Ngan Lam, Lee De Cola, Peter A. Burrough, Michael F. Goodchild, Brian Klinkenberg, Jonathan D. Phillips, Daniel Laavallee, Shaun Lovejoy, Daniel Schertzer, Philippe Ladoy, Roy E. Plotnick, Karen Prestegaard, Sandra L. Arlinghaus, Michael Batty, A. Stewart Fotheringham, Paul Longley, Hong-Lie Qiu Rui Zhao Nan Jiang Keith C. Clarke 4. {\sl Population --- Environment Dynamics\/}, edited by Gayl D. Ness, William D. Drake, and Steven R. Brechin, Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press, 1993. This book has 15 chapters organized into four sections plus a final section Summary, conclusions, and next steps" by the editors. It also has a Reference listing, information about the contributing authors, and an index. The book is 456 pages and costs \$45.
The titles of the four dominant sections are:

Global Perspectives:
History, Ideas, Sectoral Changes, and Theories.

The State as Actor:
Population --- Environment Dynamics in Large Collectivities.

The State as Environment:
Population --- Environment Dynamics in Small Communities.

Emergent Ideas:
Theory and Method.

5.  Electronic geometry."  Sandra Lach Arlinghaus.
{\sl Geographical Review\/}, Vol. 83, No. 2, April 1993,
pp. 160-169.
\vskip.5cm
%----------------------------------------------------------------
%----------------------------------------------------------------
SOME GOINGS ON ABOUT ANN ARBOR

1.    The ESRI University Lab Kit, donated to the University of
Michigan, as a result of interactive work between IMaGe, Robert
F. Austin, and ESRI, is up and running; it is seeing  good  use
by students, Teaching Assistants, and  faculty  in a variety of
disciplines.

2.  In  the  Fall  of  1992,  Bill  Drake  taught  a  course  in
Transition Theory" (and invited Sandy  Arlinghaus  to co-teach
it) in the School of Natural Resources  and the Environment.  It
was  quite  popular,  and  this  course that was experimental in
nature  in  1992-93  became  part  of  the  permanent   graduate
curriculum.  A monograph written  primarily by the students, and
published by SNR and E, came from that course.  The authors were:

Dawn M. Anderson, Katharine A. Duderstadt, Eugene A. Fosnight,
Katharine Hornbarger, Deepak Khatry, Catherine MacFarlane,
Gary Stahl, Stephen Uche, Hurng-jyuhn Wang, and Sandra
Arlinghaus and William Drake.

As this year's course draws to a close, another monograph is
forthcoming.  Its authors are:

Tatiana Bailey, Sanjay Baliga, Brent Blair, Tamara Carnovsky,
John Castanon, Juan Carlos Cervantes, Bruce Frayne, Ilia
Hartasanchez H., Kameshwari Pothukuchi, Roy Rojas Montero,
Rhonda Ryznar, Suzy Salib, Caroline Stem, Kim Stone,
Amy Sullivan, Noreen White,

\noindent and Sandra L. Arlinghaus and William D. Drake are editors.

3.  IMaGe Director S. L. Arlinghaus has been appointed an
Adjunct Professor in the School of Natural Resources and
Environment of The University of Michigan.

\bye

`