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Thursday, August 24, 2006

Nuclear threat

A Middle Eastern country has just added two nuclear-capable submarines to its arsenal, which already includes long-range ballistic missles, state-of-the-art jet fighters and bombers, and hundreds of nuclear weapons. But it's Israel, so they get a pass, and Bush is badgering the UN to go after Iran instead.

Let's compare:
  • Iran has no nuclear weapons. Israel has had nuclear weapons for over thirty years, and is believed to have hundreds in its arsenal.
  • Israel is actively adding to its nuclear arsenal. Iran is attempting to enrich uranium within the limits prescribed by the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (NPT).
  • Iran has signed the NPT; Israel has not.
  • Iran has submitted to IAEA inspections, and is willing to submit to more if given simple security guarantees. Israel has never allowed outside inspections of its nuclear program.
  • The last time Iran started a war was, well, never. Israel? Twice so far this summer.
  • Iran allegedly supplies weapons to Hezbollah. Israel has sold weapons to many countries, including China, South Africa, and Iran.

Still, AP finds "experts" who somehow make Iran sound like the threat:
The latest submarines not only would be able to carry out a first strike should Israel choose to do so, but they also would provide Israel with crucial second-strike capabilities, said Paul Beaver, a London-based independent defense analyst.

Israel is already believed to have that ability in the form of the Jericho-1 and Jericho-2 nuclear-capable ballistic missiles, which are buried so far underground they would survive a nuclear strike, he said.

"The Iranians would be very foolish if they attacked Israel," Beaver said.
...
David Menashri, an Israeli expert on Iran, said Tehran is clearly determined to obtain nuclear weapons and "the purchase of additional Dolphin submarines by Israel is a small footnote in this context."

What also makes Tehran dangerous, Beaver said, is that it may not understand the consequences of carrying out a nuclear strike.

"They (Iran) have a belligerent leadership and that's why Israel is prudent in ensuring that it has that deterrent capability," Beaver said. "What they (the submarines) are is a very good insurance policy."
How anyone can observe the non-stop war rhetoric, and actions, from Bush, Blair and Olmert, and then call Iran's leadership "belligerent" and Israel's "prudent" is beyond my comprehension.