Bob's Links and Rants

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Friday, August 04, 2006

Man with a plan

Elon Musk, a serial entrepreneur (Zip2, PayPal, SpaceX), is now going after the electric car market--starting at the high end:
[T]he Tesla Roadster is designed to beat a gasoline sports car like a Porsche or Ferrari in a head to head showdown. Then, over and above that fact, it has twice the energy efficiency of a Prius. Even so, some may question whether this actually does any good for the world. Are we really in need of another high performance sports car? Will it actually make a difference to global carbon emissions?

Well, the answers are no and not much. However, that misses the point, unless you understand the secret master plan alluded to above. Almost any new technology initially has high unit cost before it can be optimized and this is no less true for electric cars. The strategy of Tesla is to enter at the high end of the market, where customers are prepared to pay a premium, and then drive down market as fast as possible to higher unit volume and lower prices with each successive model.

Without giving away too much, I can say that the second model will be a sporty four door family car at roughly half the $89k price point of the Tesla Roadster and the third model will be even more affordable. In keeping with a fast growing technology company, all free cash flow is plowed back into R&D to drive down the costs and bring the follow on products to market as fast as possible. When someone buys the Tesla Roadster sports car, they are actually helping pay for development of the low cost family car.
Read more here. I'd prefer to see sustainability efforts directed towards community reorganization (i.e. no sprawl) and mass transit, but those steps unfortunately require the assistance of government, which despite the propaganda does not work for the good of the people in general. Musk's plan starts out providing playthings for the rich, so it may have a chance.