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Saturday, July 01, 2006

The Narco News guide to the Mexican election

Michelle of the much-missed blog You Will Anyway sent me this link from Narco News predicting an AMLO victory tomorrow:
Anything can happen on Sunday, including an attempted electoral fraud, as occurred here in 1988. But this time the Mexican people will not swallow it. If Mexico's dubious Federal Electoral Institute (IFE, in its Spanish initials) tries to repeat that dark history, the revolution will begin on Monday. Those in power can't be that stupid. Or can they?

All objective signs--if the vote is to be tabulated fairly and accurately--point to a punishing electoral victory by former Mexico City Governor Andrés Manuel López Obrador. The big boys--at least the domestic ones who seem to believe their own hype that López Obrador is a "leftist" (foreign capitalists are much more sanguine about the probability of victory by the candidate with the initials AMLO)--have tried everything to stop it. In 2005, they tried to remove López Obrador from the ballot with a legal maneuver called the desafuero. They only ended up making him stronger. Lately, they’ve attempted an Election of the State to impose a whiney little man named Felipe Calderón of the PAN (National Action) party as Fox's successor, but this week they were caught red-handed trying to rig the voter lists, among other old-style maneuvers, on Calderón’s behalf. They were undone at each step through a medium known as the Internet, which did not exist in Mexico in 1988. They may still attempt to impose Calderón on Sunday but your correspondent doubts it because, if so, it bears repeating, a revolution will break out on Monday.
You'll probably want to read the whole thing, even on this holiday weekend in which the world seems to be exploding. But do what you want--you will anyway.