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Thursday, September 16, 2004

But will Allawi live long enough to be overthrown?

From Juan Cole:
Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani called on Wednesday for general elections to be held at the scheduled time.
Sistani's quite resonable demand for elections is nevertheless among the greatest dangers facing the Allawi government and the Americans. It will be extremely difficult actually to hold the elections on time. But Sistani believes only such elections can produce a legitimate government, and he already accepted a six-month delay. If the elections are not held, and if Sistani begins to fear they won't be held soon, he may well call the masses into the streets. That could lead to an overthrow of Allawi and an expulsion of the Americans. Keep your eye on February and March of 2005.
I think the Americans have already been expelled. They're just too dense to get it.