Run from program Alliance_Sim, version 3.130 5/26/92 12:43
In this version:
A) energy is being minimized, and
B) within alliance distance is 0 while between alliance distance is 1
Run Number 14
Input file was asim.1939.prop
Size = COW National Capability index. Year = 1939.
European countries w/ Major alliance.
Props coded 7/15/91. Includes Portugal.
Pre-WWII theory based operationalizations.
Scaling Factor for propensities was 0.00100
Propensity data came from raw input. The data which generated propensities are:
File created 5/26/1992 at 11:0 1
This file created by Propensity_Maker,version 3.320 from input file asim.1939.raw
# Name Size Ethnic_ Border_ War_ Proportion Govt
Conflict Conflict History Cath Prot Orth Musl Ath Othr Type
-----------------------------------------------------------------
1 Britain 0.0993 0 0 3,5 0.390 0.610 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1
2 France 0.0398 0 3 3,5 0.975 0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1
3 Germany 0.1808 12,6,15 12 4,7,9,10,11,12 0.339 0.654 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.007 2
4 Italy 0.0280 11 11 5 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2
5 Hungary 0.0043 11,7,6 6,7,11 7,9,10,11 0.649 0.272 0.028 0.000 0.000 0.051 1
6 Czech. 0.0119 12 12 0 0.782 0.082 0.110 0.000 0.000 0.025 1
7 Rumania 0.0066 10 10 0 0.150 0.070 0.738 0.000 0.000 0.043 4
8 Denmark 0.0019 0 0 0 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1
9 Greece 0.0032 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.979 0.021 0.000 0.000 4
10 USSR 0.1394 12 12 12,13,14,15,16 0.030 0.045 0.562 0.337 0.000 0.025 3
11 Yugoslav 0.0055 0 0 0 0.378 0.017 0.492 0.113 0.000 0.000 4
12 Poland 0.0185 15 15 0 0.412 0.064 0.287 0.000 0.000 0.237 4
13 Estonia 0.0005 0 0 0 0.000 0.810 0.190 0.000 0.000 0.000 4
14 Latvia 0.0013 0 0 0 0.258 0.595 0.095 0.000 0.000 0.052 4
15 Lithuani 0.0009 0 0 0 0.855 0.040 0.027 0.000 0.000 0.078 4
16 Finland 0.0020 0 0 0 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1
17 Portugal 0.0024 0 0 0 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 4
Initial Propensity*Size Matrix (that is, P(ij)*S(i)*S(j)) is :
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 Britain 1.0 5.5 -26.4 -1.7 0.2 1.6 0.1 0.3 -0.0 -18.0 0.0 0.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1
2 France 5.5 1.0 -19.1 -0.0 0.1 0.8 0.0 0.1 -0.0 -7.2 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
3 Germany -26.4 -19.1 1.0 1.7 -0.5 -3.6 -1.1 -0.1 -0.6 -57.8 -1.0 -9.4 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
4 Italy -1.7 -0.0 1.7 1.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.0 -5.1 -0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1
5 Hungary 0.2 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 1.0 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.0 -1.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 Czech. 1.6 0.8 -3.6 -0.1 -0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.1 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Rumania 0.1 0.0 -1.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -1.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 Denmark 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.3 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Greece -0.0 -0.0 -0.6 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0
10 USSR -18.0 -7.2 -57.8 -5.1 -1.4 -2.1 -1.7 -0.3 0.1 1.0 -0.0 -7.9 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.1
11 Yugoslav 0.0 0.1 -1.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 1.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0
12 Poland 0.4 0.3 -9.4 0.2 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -7.9 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0
13 Estonia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 Latvia 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Lithuani 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
16 Finland 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.6 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
17 Portugal 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
Global optimum alliance structure :
Index Alliance_Rep Energy Local_Opt Basin_Size
29727 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 -256.26 29727 65536
Alliance 1: Britain France Czech. Denmark Greece USSR Yugoslav Poland
Alliance 2: Germany Italy Hungary Rumania Estonia Latvia Lithuani Finland
Portugal
0 _other_ alliance(s) had the same energy (in the reported half).
Permuted Propensity * Size Matrix is :
1 2 6 8 9 10 11 12 3 4 5 7 13 14 15 16 17
1 Britain 1.0 5.5 1.6 0.3 -0.0 -18.0 0.0 0.4 -26.4 -1.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.1
2 France 5.5 1.0 0.8 0.1 -0.0 -7.2 0.1 0.3 -19.1 -0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
6 Czech. 1.6 0.8 1.0 0.0 0.0 -2.1 0.0 -0.4 -3.6 -0.1 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 Denmark 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.3 -0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Greece -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.6 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0
10 USSR -18.0 -7.2 -2.1 -0.3 0.1 1.0 -0.0 -7.9 -57.8 -5.1 -1.4 -1.7 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 -0.1
11 Yugoslav 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0
12 Poland 0.4 0.3 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -7.9 0.0 1.0 -9.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0
3 Germany -26.4 -19.1 -3.6 -0.1 -0.6 -57.8 -1.0 -9.4 1.0 1.7 -0.5 -1.1 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
4 Italy -1.7 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.0 -5.1 -0.3 0.2 1.7 1.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1
5 Hungary 0.2 0.1 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 -1.4 -0.1 0.0 -0.5 -0.2 1.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Rumania 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -1.7 0.0 0.0 -1.1 0.0 -0.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13 Estonia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 Latvia 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Lithuani 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
16 Finland 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.6 -0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
17 Portugal 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
There is 1 optimum in the non-complement half. It is:
Index Alliance_Rep Energy Local_Opt Basin_Size
29727 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 -256.26 29727 65536
Alliance 1: Britain France Czech. Denmark Greece USSR Yugoslav Poland
Alliance 2: Germany Italy Hungary Rumania Estonia Latvia Lithuani Finland
Portugal
Complementary optima of those already seen will not be reported here.
Frustrations of all countries at the starting alliance and (non-complement) optima are:
These are frustrations defined as Frust(i)= Sum over j<>i of
Prop(i,j)*Size(j)*Dist(i,j)
Alliance Start=22528 29727
Britain -247.64 -274.85
France -455.94 -471.16
Germany -628.88 -652.80
Italy 52.89 -250.25
Hungary -312.25 -266.24
Czech. 5.60 -305.71
Rumania -173.21 -237.31
Denmark -44.21 -79.41
Greece -187.80 -184.70
USSR -439.46 -482.51
Yugoslav -185.27 -233.94
Poland -527.85 -495.03
Estonia 97.79 -111.50
Latvia 90.70 -107.14
Lithuani -113.20 -128.90
Finland -44.21 -101.57
Portugal 73.39 53.05
Starting alliance configuration :
Index Alliance_Rep Energy Local_Opt Basin_Size
22528 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -229.95 29727 0
Alliance 1: Britain France Italy Rumania Denmark Greece USSR Yugoslav
Poland Estonia Latvia Lithuani Finland Portugal
Alliance 2: Germany Hungary Czech.
Path from starting configuration to the local optima was :
22528 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -229.95 29727 0
30720 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -246.64 29727 0
28672 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -254.35 29727 0
29696 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -255.21 29727 0
29704 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -255.73 29727 0
29720 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -255.94 29727 0
29721 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 -256.13 29727 0
29723 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 -256.20 29727 0
29727 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 -256.26 29727 65536
Top 50 (or maximum) potential alliances follow :
Index Alliance_Rep Energy Local_Opt Basin_Size
29727 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 -256.26 29727 65536
29723 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 -256.20 29727 0
29725 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 -256.19 29727 0
29721 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 -256.13 29727 0
29726 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 -256.07 29727 0
29711 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 -256.05 29727 0
29722 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 -256.01 29727 0
29724 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 -255.99 29727 0
29707 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 -255.99 29727 0
29709 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 -255.98 29727 0
29720 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -255.94 29727 0
29705 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 -255.92 29727 0
29710 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 -255.85 29727 0
30239 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 -255.83 29727 0
29706 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 -255.80 29727 0
29708 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -255.79 29727 0
30235 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 -255.77 29727 0
29719 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 -255.73 29727 0
29704 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -255.73 29727 0
30237 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 -255.73 29727 0
29715 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 -255.67 29727 0
30233 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 -255.67 29727 0
29717 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 -255.66 29727 0
30238 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 -255.64 29727 0
30223 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 -255.62 29727 0
29713 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 -255.60 29727 0
30234 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 -255.58 29727 0
30219 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 -255.55 29727 0
29718 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 -255.54 29727 0
30236 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 -255.53 29727 0
29703 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 -255.52 29727 0
30221 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 -255.52 29727 0
29714 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 -255.48 29727 0
30232 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 -255.48 29727 0
29716 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 -255.47 29727 0
29699 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 -255.46 29727 0
29701 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 -255.46 29727 0
30217 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 -255.45 29727 0
30222 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 -255.42 29727 0
29712 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 -255.42 29727 0
29697 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 -255.39 29727 0
28703 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 -255.38 29727 0
30218 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 -255.36 29727 0
25631 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 -255.35 29727 0
29702 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 -255.33 29727 0
25629 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 -255.32 29727 0
28699 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 -255.32 29727 0
30220 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 -255.32 29727 0
28701 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 -255.31 29727 0
25627 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 -255.30 29727 0
University of Michigan Center for the Study of Complex Systems
Contact cscs@umich.edu.
Revised November 4, 1996.