Run from program Alliance_Sim, version 3.130 5/26/92 11:28
In this version:
A) energy is being minimized, and
B) within alliance distance is 0 while between alliance distance is 1
Run Number 13
Input file was asim.1938.prop
Size = COW National Capability index. Year = 1938.
European countries w/ Major alliance.
Props coded 7/15/91. Includes Portugal.
Pre-WWII theory based operationalizations.
Scaling Factor for propensities was 0.00100
Propensity data came from raw input. The data which generated propensities are:
File created 5/26/1992 at 11:0 1
This file created by Propensity_Maker,version 3.320 from input file asim.1938.raw
# Name Size Ethnic_ Border_ War_ Proportion Govt
Conflict Conflict History Cath Prot Orth Musl Ath Othr Type
-----------------------------------------------------------------
1 Britain 0.0754 0 0 3,5 0.390 0.610 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1
2 France 0.0455 0 3 3,5 0.975 0.025 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1
3 Germany 0.1534 12,6,15 12 4,7,9,10,11,12 0.339 0.654 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.007 2
4 Italy 0.0328 11 11 5 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 2
5 Hungary 0.0047 11,7,6 6,7,11 7,9,10,11 0.649 0.272 0.028 0.000 0.000 0.051 1
6 Czech. 0.0127 12 12 0 0.782 0.082 0.110 0.000 0.000 0.025 1
7 Rumania 0.0083 10 10 0 0.150 0.070 0.738 0.000 0.000 0.043 4
8 Denmark 0.0020 0 0 0 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1
9 Greece 0.0038 0 0 0 0.000 0.000 0.979 0.021 0.000 0.000 4
10 USSR 0.1661 12 12 12,13,14,15,16 0.030 0.045 0.562 0.337 0.000 0.025 3
11 Yugoslav 0.0064 0 0 0 0.378 0.017 0.492 0.113 0.000 0.000 4
12 Poland 0.0195 15 15 0 0.412 0.064 0.287 0.000 0.000 0.237 4
13 Estonia 0.0006 0 0 0 0.000 0.810 0.190 0.000 0.000 0.000 4
14 Latvia 0.0012 0 0 0 0.258 0.595 0.095 0.000 0.000 0.052 4
15 Lithuani 0.0010 0 0 0 0.855 0.040 0.027 0.000 0.000 0.078 4
16 Finland 0.0021 0 0 0 0.000 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 1
17 Portugal 0.0027 0 0 0 1.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 4
Initial Propensity*Size Matrix (that is, P(ij)*S(i)*S(j)) is :
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 Britain 1.0 4.8 -17.0 -1.5 0.1 1.3 0.1 0.2 -0.0 -16.3 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1
2 France 4.8 1.0 -18.5 -0.0 0.1 1.0 0.1 0.1 -0.0 -9.9 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
3 Germany -17.0 -18.5 1.0 1.7 -0.4 -3.3 -1.2 -0.1 -0.6 -58.5 -1.0 -8.4 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
4 Italy -1.5 -0.0 1.7 1.0 -0.2 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 -0.0 -7.1 -0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1
5 Hungary 0.1 0.1 -0.4 -0.2 1.0 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 -0.0 -1.8 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
6 Czech. 1.3 1.0 -3.3 -0.1 -0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.6 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Rumania 0.1 0.1 -1.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -2.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 Denmark 0.2 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.4 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Greece -0.0 -0.0 -0.6 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0
10 USSR -16.3 -9.9 -58.5 -7.1 -1.8 -2.6 -2.6 -0.4 0.1 1.0 -0.0 -10.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.8 -0.1
11 Yugoslav 0.0 0.1 -1.0 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 1.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0
12 Poland 0.3 0.4 -8.4 0.3 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 -10.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0
13 Estonia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 Latvia 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Lithuani 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
16 Finland 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.8 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
17 Portugal 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
Global optimum alliance structure :
Index Alliance_Rep Energy Local_Opt Basin_Size
29759 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -245.14 29759 65536
Alliance 1: Britain France Czech. Denmark Greece USSR Yugoslav
Alliance 2: Germany Italy Hungary Rumania Poland Estonia Latvia Lithuani
Finland Portugal
0 _other_ alliance(s) had the same energy (in the reported half).
Permuted Propensity * Size Matrix is :
1 2 6 8 9 10 11 3 4 5 7 12 13 14 15 16 17
1 Britain 1.0 4.8 1.3 0.2 -0.0 -16.3 0.0 -17.0 -1.5 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1
2 France 4.8 1.0 1.0 0.1 -0.0 -9.9 0.1 -18.5 -0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1
6 Czech. 1.3 1.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -2.6 0.0 -3.3 -0.1 -0.0 0.0 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
8 Denmark 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.0 -0.0 -0.4 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
9 Greece -0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 1.0 0.1 0.0 -0.6 -0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.0
10 USSR -16.3 -9.9 -2.6 -0.4 0.1 1.0 -0.0 -58.5 -7.1 -1.8 -2.6 -10.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.8 -0.1
11 Yugoslav 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 1.0 -1.0 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0
3 Germany -17.0 -18.5 -3.3 -0.1 -0.6 -58.5 -1.0 1.0 1.7 -0.4 -1.2 -8.4 0.0 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1
4 Italy -1.5 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.0 -7.1 -0.4 1.7 1.0 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 0.1
5 Hungary 0.1 0.1 -0.0 0.0 -0.0 -1.8 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 1.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
7 Rumania 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -2.6 0.0 -1.2 0.0 -0.1 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12 Poland 0.3 0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 -10.0 0.0 -8.4 0.3 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0
13 Estonia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14 Latvia 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
15 Lithuani 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0
16 Finland 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.8 -0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0
17 Portugal 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 -0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.0
There is 1 optimum in the non-complement half. It is:
Index Alliance_Rep Energy Local_Opt Basin_Size
29759 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -245.14 29759 65536
Alliance 1: Britain France Czech. Denmark Greece USSR Yugoslav
Alliance 2: Germany Italy Hungary Rumania Poland Estonia Latvia Lithuani
Finland Portugal
Complementary optima of those already seen will not be reported here.
Frustrations of all countries at the starting alliance and (non-complement) optima are:
These are frustrations defined as Frust(i)= Sum over j<>i of
Prop(i,j)*Size(j)*Dist(i,j)
Alliance Start=22528 29759
Britain -206.14 -232.98
France -381.57 -389.76
Germany -674.42 -644.83
Italy 42.88 -280.18
Hungary -393.01 -342.10
Czech. -51.38 -292.13
Rumania -149.44 -293.89
Denmark -33.36 -72.63
Greece -160.16 -150.86
USSR -378.48 -490.56
Yugoslav -159.55 -212.00
Poland -451.82 -496.63
Estonia 83.43 -156.79
Latvia 77.98 -152.40
Lithuani -93.69 -135.50
Finland -33.36 -195.62
Portugal 64.98 34.32
Starting alliance configuration :
Index Alliance_Rep Energy Local_Opt Basin_Size
22528 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -211.91 29759 0
Alliance 1: Britain France Italy Rumania Denmark Greece USSR Yugoslav
Poland Estonia Latvia Lithuani Finland Portugal
Alliance 2: Germany Hungary Czech.
Path from starting configuration to the local optima was :
22528 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -211.91 29759 0
30720 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -232.20 29759 0
28672 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -237.86 29759 0
28704 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -240.86 29759 0
29728 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 -243.37 29759 0
29736 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 -243.94 29759 0
29738 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 -244.44 29759 0
29739 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 -244.78 29759 0
29755 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 -245.07 29759 0
29759 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -245.14 29759 65536
Top 50 (or maximum) potential alliances follow :
Index Alliance_Rep Energy Local_Opt Basin_Size
29759 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -245.14 29759 65536
29755 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 -245.07 29759 0
30271 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 -244.98 29759 0
30267 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 -244.91 29759 0
29743 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 -244.84 29759 0
29758 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 -244.79 29759 0
29739 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 -244.78 29759 0
29754 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 -244.73 29759 0
30255 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 -244.68 29759 0
29757 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 -244.64 29759 0
30270 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 1 0 -244.63 29759 0
30251 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 -244.61 29759 0
30266 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 -244.58 29759 0
29753 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 -244.57 29759 0
29751 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 -244.55 29759 0
29742 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 -244.50 29759 0
29747 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 -244.49 29759 0
30269 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 -244.45 29759 0
29738 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 -244.44 29759 0
30263 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 1 -244.39 29759 0
30265 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 1 -244.38 29759 0
29741 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 -244.35 29759 0
30254 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 1 0 -244.34 29759 0
30259 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 -244.33 29759 0
29756 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 -244.29 29759 0
29737 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 -244.28 29759 0
30250 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 1 0 -244.28 29759 0
29735 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 -244.26 29759 0
29752 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 -244.23 29759 0
29750 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 -244.21 29759 0
29731 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 -244.20 29759 0
29746 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 -244.16 29759 0
30253 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 -244.15 29759 0
30268 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 -244.10 29759 0
30247 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 1 -244.09 29759 0
30249 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 1 -244.09 29759 0
29749 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 -244.06 29759 0
30262 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 1 0 -244.05 29759 0
30264 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 0 -244.04 29759 0
30243 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 -244.03 29759 0
29740 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 -244.00 29759 0
29745 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 -244.00 29759 0
30258 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 -243.99 29759 0
29736 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 -243.94 29759 0
29734 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 -243.92 29759 0
30261 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 1 0 1 -243.86 29759 0
29730 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 0 -243.86 29759 0
30252 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 -243.81 29759 0
30257 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 1 -243.80 29759 0
29733 0 0 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 1 -243.77 29759 0
University of Michigan Center for the Study of Complex Systems
Contact cscs@umich.edu.
Revised November 4, 1996.