UM Logo Matthew D. Shapiro
Lawrence R. Klein Collegiate Professor of Economics
Research Professor, Survey Research Center
University of Michigan
Ann Arbor MI 48106-1248
734 764-4143 SRC
734 764-5419 Economics
734 764-2769 FAX
shapiro @ umich.edu

Information

Contact Information |  Biographical Sketch | Curriculum vitae (PDF) | Google Scholar | Photo | Office Hours |  Papers | Working Papers | Op-Ed | Data | Advisees | Directions to Economics Department

NBER Reporter Research Summary | NBER Profile

Project websites

Economic Behavior Program Projects (EBP-Projects)

                        RESET: Re-Engineering Statistics using Economic Transactions 

Vanguard Research Initiative (VRI)
Risk Tolerance and Risk Aversion
Cognitive Economics Study (CogEcon)
University of Michigan Social Media Job Loss Index

Michigan Research Data Center (RDC)

Census-Enhanced Health and Retirement Study (CenHRS)

Research on Economic Stimulus:  Tax Rebates and Investment Incentives

Comments on effects of the government shutdown (January, February 2019)

NBER video about government shutdown

The Chart That Shows the Financial Peril Facing Federal Workers New York Times opinion, January 16, 2019

University of Michigan press release January 16, 2019
Testimony, "Economic Effects of Government Shutdowns" Committee on Small Business,  U.S. House of Representatives, February 6, 2019

Books

Scanner Data and Price Indexes, eds. Robert Feenstra and Matthew D. Shapiro.  Chicago:  University of Chicago Press, 2003. 

Big Data for 21st Century Economic Statistics, eds. Katharine G. Abraham, Ron S. Jarmin, Brian Moyer, and Matthew D. Shapiro. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2022. 

Papers

"SeaTE: Subjective ex ante Treatment Effect of Health on Retirement." by Pamela Giustinelli and Matthew D. Shapiro.  July 2019. Revised January 2023. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics Accepted  online appendices  NBER Working Paper 26087.

"The Response of Consumer Spending to Changes in Gasoline Prices." by Michael Gelman, Yuriy Gorodnichenko, Shachar Kariv, Dmitri Koustas, Matthew D. Shapiro, Dan Silverman, and Steven Tadelis.  American Economic Journal:  Macroeconomics 15(2) (Apr 2023) 129-160. Preprint PDF

"Implicates as Instrumental Variables: An Approach for Estimation and Inference with Probabilistically Matched Data." by Dhiren Patki and Matthew D. Shapiro. Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology (2023). Preprint PDF

"Cognitive Decline, Limited Awareness, Imperfect Agency, and Financial Well-being." by John Ameriks, Andrew Caplin, Minjoon Lee, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Christopher Tonetti.  American Economic Review:  Insights 5(1) (Mar 2023) 125-140. Preprint PDF

"Retirement Expectations." by Gábor Kézdi and Matthew D. Shapiro. In Handbook of Economic Expectations, Eds. Rüdiger Bachmann, Giorgio Topa, and Wilbert van der Klaauw.  Amsterdam:  North-Holland/Elsevier, 2023. 

"Rational Illiquidity and Consumption: Theory and Evidence from Income Tax Withholding and Refunds."  by Michael Gelman, Shachar Kariv, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Dan Silverman.  American Economic Review 112(9) (Sept 2022) 2959-2991.  Preprint PDF

"Re-engineering Key National Economic Indicators."  by Gabriel Ehrlich, John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, David Johnson, and Matthew D. Shapiro. In Big Data for 21st Century Economic Statistics, eds. Katharine G. Abraham, Ron S. Jarmin, Brian Moyer, and Matthew D. Shapiro. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2022.  
"Big Data for the 21st Century Economic Statistics: The Future is Now"  by Katharine G. Abraham, Ron S. Jarmin, Brian Moyer, and Matthew D. Shapiro. In Big Data for 21st Century Economic Statistics, eds. Katharine G. Abraham, Ron S. Jarmin, Brian Moyer, and Matthew D. Shapiro. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2022.  

"Infrastructure for Rapid Open Knowledge Network Development." by Michael Cafarella, Michael Anderson, Iz Beltagy, Arie Cattan, Sarah Chasins, Ido Dagan, Doug Downey, Oren Etzioni, Sergey Feldman, Tian Gao, Tom Hope, Kexin Huang, Sophie Johnson, Daniel King, Kyle Lo, Yuze Lou, Matthew Shapiro, Dinghao Shen, Shivashankar Subramanian, Lucy Lu Wang, Yuning Wang, Yitong Wang, Daniel S. Weld, Jenny Vo-Phamhi, Anna Zeng, and Jiayun Zou. AI Magazine 43(1) (2022) 59-68.   
Gábor Kézdi and Matthew D. Shapiro. 

"Long-Term-Care Utility and Late-in-Life Saving." by John Ameriks, Joseph Briggs, Andrew Caplin, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Christopher Tonetti. Vanguard Research Initiative. Journal of Political Economy 128 (2020) 2375-2451. pdf.  Online appendix. https://doi.org/10.1086/706686

"Older Americans Would Work Longer If Jobs Were Flexible." by John Ameriks, Joseph Briggs, Andrew Caplin, Minjoon Lee, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Christopher Tonetti. Vanguard Research Initiative American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 12 (2020) 174-209.  pdf.  https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170403

"Portfolio Rebalancing in General Equilibrium."  by Miles S. Kimball, Matthew D. Shapiro, Tyler Shumway, and Jing Zhang.  Journal of Financial Economics 135 (2020) 816-834.  pdf  https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jfineco.2019.08.007

"Heterogeneity in Expectations, Risk Tolerance, and Household Stock Shares:  The Attenuation Puzzle."  by John Ameriks, Gábor Kézdi, Minjoon Lee, and Matthew D. Shapiro. Vanguard Research Initiative.  Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 38 (2020) 633-646.  pdf appendix https://doi.org/10.1080/07350015.2018.1549560

"How Individuals Respond to a Liquidity Shock: Evidence from the 2013 Government Shutdown." by Michael Gelman, Shachar Kariv, Matthew D. Shapiro, Dan Silverman, and Steven Tadelis.  Journal of Public Economics 189 (2020)   pdf  appendix https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2018.06.007


"Effects of a Government-Academic Partnership: Has the NSF-Census Bureau Research Network Helped Secure the Future of the Federal Statistical System?" by D. H. Weinberg, J.M. Abowd, R.F. Belli, N. Cressie, D.C. Folch, S.H. Holan, M.C. Levenstein, K.M. Olson, J.P. Reiter, M.D. Shapiro, and J. Smyth. Journal of Survey Statistics and Methodology 7 (2019) 589-619.  https://doi.org/10.1093/jssam/smy023  pdf  appendix


"Minding Your Ps and Qs: Going from Micro to Macro in Measuring Prices and Quantities." by Gabriel Ehrlich, John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, David Johnson, and Matthew D. Shapiro.  AEA Papers and Proceedings 109 (2019) 438-443. DOI: 10.1257/pandp.20191004  pdf

 "Reconsidering the Consequences of Worker Displacements: Firm versus Worker Perspective."  by Aaron Flaaen, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Isaac Sorkin.  American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics 11(2) (2019) 193–227. pdf appendices
https://doi.org/10.1257/mac.20170162

“Harnessing Naturally Occurring Data to Measure the Response of Spending to Income” by Michael Gelman, Shachar Kariv, Matthew D. Shapiro, Dan Silverman, and Steven Tadelis.  Science 345 (11 July 2014) 212-215.
Links to article and supplemental materials: reprint, abstract, full text, and supplemental materials
Link to data at Berkeley Econometrics Lab (EML): data

“Forecasting the Recovery from the Great Recession:  Is This Time Different?” by Kathryn M.E. Dominguez and Matthew D. Shapiro.  American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 103(3) (2013) 147–152. PDF file, On-line Appendix, Data files.

“Why Does Trend Growth Affect Equilibrium Employment?  A New Explanation of an Old Puzzle” by Michael W.L. Elsby and Matthew D. Shapiro, American Economic Review 102(4) (2012) 1378–1413. PDF file, On-line Appendix, Data files.  Previously circulated as "Stepping Off the Wage Escalator: The Effects of Wage Growth on Equilibrium Employment."

“Check in the Mail or More in the Paycheck:  Does the Effectiveness of Fiscal Stimulus Depend on How It Is Delivered?” by Claudia R. Sahm, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Joel Slemrod. American Economic Journal:  Economic Policy 4 (2012) 216–250.  http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/pol.4.3.216.  PDF file

"Household Response to the 2008 Tax Rebates: Survey Evidence and Aggregate Implications" by Claudia R. Sahm, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Joel Slemrod.  Tax Policy and the Economy 24 (2010) 69-110.  PDF file

"Oil and the Macroeconomy: Lessons for Monetary Policy" by Ethan S. Harris, Bruce C. Kasman, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Kenneth D. West.  US Monetary Policy Forum Conference Paper, February 2009 (Revised November 2009).  PDF file

"Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?" by Matthew D. Shapiro and Joel Slemrod. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 99 (May 2009) 374-379. PDF file

"Risk Preferences in the PSID: Individual Imputations and Family Covariation." by Miles S. Kimball, Claudia R. Sahm, and Matthew D. Shapiro. American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings 99 (May 2009) 363-368. PDF file  Appendix 
For information about using risk tolerance imputations, see risk preference data page.

"Imputing Risk Tolerance from Survey Responses" by Miles S. Kimball, Claudia Sahm, and Matthew D. Shapiro, Journal of the American Statistical Association 103 (Sept 2008) 1028-1038.  PDF file
For information about using risk tolerance imputations, see risk preference data page.

"Temporary Investment Tax Incentives: Theory with Evidence from Bonus Depreciation" by Christopher L. House and Matthew D. Shapiro. American Economic Review 98:3 (June 2008) 737-768.   PDF file | Summary from NBER Digest.

"Monetary Policy When Potential Output Is Uncertain: Understanding the Growth Gamble of the 1990s," by Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Matthew D.  Shapiro.  Journal of Monetary Economics 54 (2007) 1132-1162. PDF file

"Why Do Computers Depreciate?"  by Michael J. Geske, Valerie A. Ramey, and Matthew D. Shapiro.  In Hard-to-Measure Goods and Services: Essays in Memory of Zvi Griliches,  Ernst R. Berndt and Charles R. Hulten, Eds.  Chicago:  University of Chicago Press, 2007.   PDF file

"Phased-In Tax Cuts and Economic Activity" by Christopher L. House and Matthew D. Shapiro.   American Economic Review 96 (December 2006) 1835-1949. PDF file

Discussion of  "Federal Government Debt and Interest Rates" by Eric Engen and R. Glenn Hubbard,  NBER Macroeconomics Annual 19 (2004) 148-156.  PDF file

"Did The 2001 Tax Rebate Stimulate Spending? Evidence From Taxpayer Surveys"  by Matthew D. Shapiro and Joel Slemrod.  Tax Policy and the Economy, ed James Poterba.  Cambridge:  MIT Press, 2003.  PDF file

"Consumer Response to Tax Rebates" (Revised version, October 2002) by Matthew D. Shapiro and Joel Slemrod.  American Economic Review 93 (March 2003) 381-396  PDF file 
Executive Summary | Survey Instrument.  Working paper version with regression analysis  Working Paper

"Displaced Capital: A Study of Aerospace Plant Closings" by Valerie Ramey and Matthew Shapiro  Journal of Political Economy 109 (October 2001) 958-992.  PDF file 

"Productivity Growth in the 1990s: Technology, Utilization, or Adjustment?" by Susanto Basu, John G. Fernald, and Matthew D. Shapiro, Prepared for the Carnegie-Rochester Conference on Public Policy, November 2000, Revised June 2001 PDF file  Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 55 (2001) 117-165.

"Labor and the Sustainability of Output and Productivity Growth" (January 2001) by Rebecca M. Blank and Matthew D. Shapiro.  Prepared for the Russell-Sage Foundation/Century Foundation Sustainable Employment Conference.  PDF file

"High-Frequency Substitution and the Measurement of Price Indexes" by Robert Feenstra and Matthew Shapiro.  In Scanner Data and Price Indexes, eds. Robert Feenstra and Matthew Shapiro.  Chicago:  University of Chicago Press, 2003.   PDF file   

"Measuring the Value of Cataract Surgery," by Irving Shapiro, Matthew Shapiro, and David Wilcox.  In Medical Care Output and Productivity, David M. Cutler and Ernst R. Berndt, eds. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2001.  PDF file

"Quality Improvement in Health Care: A Framework for Price and Output Measurement," by Irving Shapiro, Matthew Shapiro, and David Wilcox,  American Economic Review Proceedings 89 (May 1999) 333-337.  PDF file. 

  (See CV for earlier publications.)

Working Papers

"Quality Adjustment at Scale:  Hedonic versus Exact Demand-Based Price Indices" by Gabriel Ehrlich, John Haltiwanger, Ron Jarmin, David Johnson, Ed Olivares, Luke Pardue, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Laura Yi Zhao. July 2022.   Revised May 2023. NBER Working Paper 31309


"Using Machine Learning to Construct Hedonic Price Indices" by Michael J. Cafarella, Gabriel Ehrlich, Tian Gao, John Haltiwanger, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Laura Yi Zhao. Revised May 2023.  NBER Working Paper  31315  NBER Digest summary Sept 2023

"How Worker Productivity and Wages Grow with Tenure and Experience: The Firm Perspective."  by Andrew Caplin, Minjoon Lee, Søren Leth-Petersen, Johan Sæverud, and Matthew D. Shapiro.  July 2022.  Revised August 2023.  NBER Working Paper 30342.


"Finding Needles in Haystacks: Multiple-Imputation Record Linkage Using Machine Learning." by John M. Abowd, Joelle Abramowitz, Margaret C. Levenstein, Kristin McCue, Dhiren Patki, Trivellore Raghunathan, Ann M. Rodgers, Matthew D. Shapiro, Nada Wasi, and Dawn Zinsser.  Revised October 2021. 

"The Wealth of Wealthholders." by John Ameriks, Andrew Caplin, Minjoon Lee, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Christopher Tonetti. Vanguard Research Initiative Working Paper. Revised September 2023. Survey Information  NBER Working Paper 20972.

"Stimulus Effects of Investment Tax Incentives: Production versus Purchases." by Christopher L. House, Ana-Maria Mocanu, and Matthew D. Shapiro.  Revised February 2019. pdf 


"The Long-Term-Care Insurance Puzzle:  Modeling and Measurement." by John Ameriks, Joseph Briggs, Andrew Caplin, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Christopher Tonetti. Vanguard Research Initiative Working Paper. June 2018. pdf. (Previously circulated as “Late-in-Life Risks and the Under-Insurance Puzzle” November 2016.)  

"Balance-Sheet Households and Fiscal Stimulus: Lessons from the Payroll Tax Cut and Its Expiration" by Claudia R. Sahm, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Joel Slemrod. revised August 2016.  pdf.

"Using Social Media to Measure Labor Market Flows." by Dolan Antenucci, Michael Cafarella, Margaret C. Levenstein, Christopher Re, and Matthew D. Shapiro.  April 2013.  Revised March 2014. pdf.  Real-time predictions of Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance.

"Using the Survey of Plant Capacity to Measure Capital Utilization."  by Yuriy Gorodnichenko and Matthew D. Shapiro.  U.S. Census Bureau.  Center for Economic Studies Discussion Paper 11-18, July 2011.  pdf

"The Effects of the Financial Crisis on the Well‐Being of Older Americans: Evidence from the Cognitive Economics Study" by Matthew D. Shapiro, September 2010. PDF file

"Labor Supply:  Are Income and Substitution Effects Both :Large or Both Small?"  by Miles S. Kimball and Matthew D. Shapiro, updated June 2010.  PDF file. Appendices.

"The Retirement Elasticity"  by Miles S. Kimball and Matthew D. Shapiro, June 2003.  PDF file  This paper extends the framework of "Labor Supply:  Are Income and Substitution Effects Both :Large or Both Small?" to consider the retirement margin for labor supply and how wealth shocks (e.g., a change in the value of Social Security benefits) affect retirement age.

Lecture

"Survey Methods in Macroeconomics" Lawrence R. Klein Collegiate Professorship Inaugural Lecture, April 17, 2007.

Op-Ed

The Chart That Shows the Financial Peril Facing Federal Workers New York Times opinion, (January 16, 2019).

"Bush Stimulus May Have Only Modest Effect" by Christopher L. House, Matthew D. Shapiro, and Joel Slemrod, Wall Street Journal Online (Jan. 10, 2008)

"Tax cuts aren't economic cure-alls" by Matthew D. Shapiro and Joel Slemrod, Detroit Free Press (Feb. 12, 2001)

"Economic Stimulant:  Sales Tax" by Matthew D. Shapiro, New York Times (Dec. 16, 1991)

Courses

Econ 402, Intermediate macroeconomics
Econ 495, Seminar in economics (honors)

Econ 612, Advanced macroeconomics

Links

Department of Economics, University of Michigan

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy

My NBER Working Papers are available through the National Bureau of Economic Research.
Institute for Social Research
Survey Research Center
Michigan Research Data Center (RDC)

Federal Economic Statistics Advisory Committee (FESAC), Statement on Data Synchronization, December 12, 2014
American Economic Association | AEA Committee on Statistics
US Monetary Policy Forum